Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
256 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

At 2 PM, a short wave trough was producing showers and storms
across western Wisconsin. These storms were producing wind speeds
anywhere from 40 to 75 mph. The strongest wind gust was at the
Reedsburg AWOS. These storms are quickly exiting the area and the
HRRR is showing little redevelopment in the wake of this system.
As a result, we were able to cancel our portion of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 328 early.

On Thursday afternoon, a mid-level speed max will move east across
the area. With 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES climbing up into the 1 to
2K range, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop mainly along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor.
With 0-3 km shear generally less than 30 knots, not anticipating
any severe weather from these storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

From Thursday night into Saturday morning, a series of weak short
wave troughs will move through the region. These will produce
periodic showers and storms. While the 0-6 km shear is very weak,
the 0-3 km shear does occasionally climb up into the 25 to 35
knot range at time. In addition, there is inverted V sounding in
the sub-cloud layer. As a result, there could be the potential
for some gusty straight-line winds from time to time.

On Saturday afternoon and night, a much stronger short wave
trough will move southeast through the area. While the GFS and
ECMWF have supercell shear ahead of this wave, the amount of
instability varies considerably between them. The ECMWF has the
0-1 km mixed layer CAPES only climbing up into the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. Meanwhile the GFS has them in the 2 to 3K range. SPC
has a small portion of our area (Fayette and Clayton counties in
northeast Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin) with a 15%
chance of severe weather. This seems very realistic, because this
is the area which will see the highest amount of instability.

In the wake of this system, below-normal temperatures will move
into the region. These cooler temperatures will continue through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Currently watching a cluster of shra/ts working northeast across
northeast IA into far southwest WI. Northern extent of this
activity may brush KLSE through 20z before exiting east. KRST
should just see a few shra in the vicinity, clearing out after
20z. VFR conditions expected otherwise through this evening into
Thursday morning. Gusty south/southwest winds expected to subside
by early this evening, becoming more west/southwesterly.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...DAS

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