Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: Watching for potential convective
redevelopment into this evening (maybe overnight?) and again at
various times into Tuesday and Tuesday night, though to be perfectly
honestly, confidence isn't overly high for any one given forecast
period.

Active start to the day, with a well-forecast MCS crossing areas
generally north of I-90 with some wind/hail reports. That feature
has departed, leaving behind some messy stratus given moisture
pooled along an outflow-enhanced warm front somewhere near or just
south of I-90 at early afternoon, with quite the spread in temps
from north to south as one would expect in such a setup. Biggest
question from here on out remains redevelopment through the
afternoon and evening, with building instability where skies are
clearing given pooled dew points now well into the 60s, but also
fighting building capping aloft working north out of Iowa with 700mb
temps pushing 14C or better. Second question remains a focus for
development, as clouds are currently delaying the northward
advancement of the warm front, though do suspect there is still
plenty of time for it to mix northward.

While overall confidence is admittedly low heading into the evening
and overnight, do believe there is a risk for additional convection
to fire over northwest Wisconsin into east-central Minnesota through
late afternoon, but it could potentially be farther south pending
placement of the front and better convergence. Anything that does
develop should tend to percolate slowly southward as high pressure
to the north gives the front a nudge, with plenty of theoretical
instability but also with that pesky cap still in place with
southward extent. All told, won't be shocked if the better activity
remains confined to areas again near and north of I-90, and also
weakens with time into tonight given a lack of any significant
moisture transport/low level jet forcing into the area (similar to
last night). As for any severe prospects, some window for organized
severe storms to our north in an axis of better 0-3/0-6km shear, but
we really lose that with southward extent, such that any storms
tonight may be more of a heavy rain threat given substantial PWAT
values up around 2 inches.

Heading into Monday, confidence again way down there on the scale,
especially with some hints of persistent clouds along the stalled
boundary nearby (likely draped over northeast Iowa). However,
capping looks much weaker and with building instability through the
afternoon, can't rule out some scattered storms firing, but with a
very limited severe threat given weaker shear. However, these storms
will be along a boundary, so there's always that to watch. Better
chance for convection may end up being Monday night with a notable
push of deeper layer moisture transport into the area as the warm
front lifts back north. Severe threat again looks low with a lack of
low and deep layer shear, but heavy rain could be a concern with
lots of moisture pooled overhead before we end up mainly capped off
for much of Tuesday. Temps the next few days are pretty much a
nightmare and will hinge solely on cloud and precip trends, but
overall looking still quite warm with readings well into the 80s and
lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Continuing to look potentially active once again toward Wednesday
with the approach of the stronger western CONUS upper trough and
associated cold front, though exact timing is still somewhat in
question. On paper at least, there is certainly a severe risk with
increasing shear and stronger forcing through the day, with current
SPC highlight for Wednesday looking pretty good for the moment.
Beyond that, while confidence still isn't the greatest, trends over
recent days do suggest things may turn increasingly more quiet into
late week and the weekend as upper troughing develops with time over
the region, with maybe a greater threat for some additional rainfall
toward Friday night as our next upper trough and cold front
arrive.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Watching a couple narrow bands of southwest-northeast oriented
convection from southeast MN into west-central WI. These
thunderstorms are expected to slowly move southeastward this
evening and overnight. Timing/coverage at TAF airfields is still
somewhat uncertain, so will cover threat with VCTS for now; from
12.02Z to 12.09Z at KRST and from 12.04Z to 12.10Z at KLSE.
Forecast guidance then suggests ceilings should lower to MVFR
behind these storms into early Monday morning. A return to VFR
conditions is expected by 12.18Z. Gusty southerly winds early this
evening will subside by 12.02Z with light southerly or even
variable winds away from thunderstorms through the rest of the
period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM...Lawrence
AVIATION...Rogers

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
716 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

MNZ079-120045-
Wabasha-
716 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 716 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Plainview, or
10 miles southwest of Wabasha, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wabasha, Alma, Plainview, Buffalo City, Kellogg, West Newton, West
Albany, and Minneiska.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4435 9231 4441 9209 4440 9206 4438 9203
      4436 9197 4433 9192 4431 9191 4429 9193
      4427 9190 4425 9189 4423 9189 4419 9186
      4419 9208 4417 9208 4415 9222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 250DEG 34KT 4425 9215

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
732 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ017-120115-
Taylor-
732 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TAYLOR COUNTY...

At 732 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Jump River to 6 miles north of
Stanley. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Medford, Rib Lake, Chelsea, Westboro, Jump River, Stetsonville,
Goodrich, Gilman, Lublin, Polley, and Perkinstown.

LAT...LON 4512 9004 4512 9020 4503 9020 4503 9092
      4538 9092 4538 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 265DEG 40KT 4533 9074 4505 9094

CA