Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS La Crosse, WI

444 
WGUS63 KARX 112022
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
322 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...Flash Flooding Possible Tonight and Wednesday Morning...

.Very heavy rain is expected to develop across western Wisconsin
after 10 PM tonight and then continue into the overnight. Rainfall
amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts
possible. With this rain potentially falling onto the same areas 
which received heavy rain Sunday night, there will be the 
possibility of flash flooding.

WIZ033-034-041-042-053-055-120430-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.170712T0300Z-170712T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Richland-
Including the cities of Arcadia, Whitehall, Black River Falls, 
La Crosse, Sparta, Tomah, Viroqua, and Richland Center
322 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in southwest Wisconsin, 
  Richland and Vernon. In west central Wisconsin, Jackson, La 
  Crosse, Monroe, and Trempealeau. 

* From 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning

* Very heavy rain will develop across the area after 10 PM tonight
  and then continue into the overnight.

* 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are expected.
  If this rain falls on the same areas that received heavy rain
  Sunday night, there will be the potential for flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

WIZ043-044-120430-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.170712T0300Z-170712T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Mauston and Friendship
322 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central Wisconsin, including the following areas, 
  Adams and Juneau. 

* From 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning

* Very heavy rain will develop across the area after 10 PM tonight
  and then continue into the overnight.

* 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are expected.
  If this rain falls on the same areas that received heavy rain
  Sunday night, there will be the potential for flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Boyne

893 
WGUS63 KARX 120300
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...Flash Flooding Possible Tonight and Wednesday Morning...

.Very heavy rain is expected to develop across western Wisconsin
after 10 PM tonight and then continue into the overnight.
Rainfall amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. With this rain potentially falling onto
the same areas which received heavy rain Sunday night, there will
be the possibility of flash flooding.

WIZ033-034-041-042-053-055-121100-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Richland-
Including the cities of Arcadia, Whitehall, Black River Falls, 
La Crosse, Sparta, Tomah, Viroqua, and Richland Center
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in southwest Wisconsin, 
  Richland and Vernon. In west central Wisconsin, Jackson, La 
  Crosse, Monroe, and Trempealeau. 

* Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday

* Very heavy rain will develop across the area after 10 PM 
  tonight and then continue into the overnight. 

* 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are 
  expected. If this rain falls on the same areas that received 
  heavy rain Sunday night, there will be the potential for flash 
  flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

WIZ043-044-121100-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Mauston and Friendship
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central Wisconsin, including the following areas, 
  Adams and Juneau. 

* Through Wednesday morning

* Very heavy rain will develop across the area after 10 PM 
  tonight and then continue into the overnight. 

* 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are 
  expected. If this rain falls on the same areas that received 
  heavy rain Sunday night, there will be the potential for flash 
  flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Rogers

714 
WGUS63 KARX 120514
FFAARX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Flash Flooding Occurring...

.Heavy rain has resulted in flooding across portions of Clayton
County Iowa and Grant County Wisconsin, with evacuations occurring
in parts of Clayton county due to high water. Radar estimates are 
over 6 inches for parts of these counties. 

Additional heavy rain is expected during the overnight hours,
impacting areas already experiencing flash flooding, along with 
adjacent areas. Another 1 to 3 inches is expected, with locally 
higher amounts possible. 

If you live in these areas, flash flooding is a serious threat.
Be prepared to quickly move to higher ground if you live by any
river or stream. Mudslides are likely in hilly terrain. Washouts
also possible. Never drive through a flooded roadway. The time to
take action is now.  

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ054-061-121200-
/O.EXA.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Houston-Crawford-Grant-
Including the cities of Decorah, Waukon, Oelwein, Elkader, 
Caledonia, Prairie Du Chien, and Platteville
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of northeast Iowa, 
  southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin, including the 
  following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee, Clayton, 
  Fayette, and Winneshiek. In southeast Minnesota, Houston. In 
  southwest Wisconsin, Crawford and Grant. 

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning

* Very heavy rain through the overnight hours. 

* An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
  are expected. Flash flooding is already occurring in some 
  areas. Additional flash flooding is likely.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

WIZ033-034-041-042-053-055-121200-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Richland-
Including the cities of Arcadia, Whitehall, Black River Falls, 
La Crosse, Sparta, Tomah, Viroqua, and Richland Center
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in southwest Wisconsin, 
  Richland and Vernon. In west central Wisconsin, Jackson, La 
  Crosse, Monroe, and Trempealeau. 

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning

* Very heavy rain through the overnight hours.
  

* 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are expected.
  If this rain falls on the same areas that received heavy rain 
  Sunday night, there will be the potential for flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

WIZ043-044-121315-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Mauston and Friendship
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central Wisconsin, including the following areas, 
  Adams and Juneau. 

* Until 10 AM CDT this morning

* Very heavy rain through the overnight. 

* 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are 
  expected. If this rain falls on the same areas that received 
  heavy rain Sunday night, there will be the potential for flash 
  flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

580 
WGUS63 KARX 121018
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
518 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Thunderstorms Capable of Locally Heavy Rains Continue Across
Parts of the Area...

.Locally heavy rains resulted in flooding across portions of 
Clayton County Iowa and Grant County Wisconsin, with evacuations,
road damage and mud slides occurring in the areas where 4 to over
8 inches of rain fell. 

Additional heavy rain is possible into this morning, especially
for areas north and east of La Crosse. Another 1 to locally 2
inches of rain is possible in these areas, with locally higher 
amounts possible.

If you live in these areas, flash flooding is a serious threat.
Be prepared to quickly move to higher ground if you live by any
river or stream. Mudslides are likely when heavy rain falls in 
hilly terrain. Washouts also possible. Never drive through a 
flooded roadway. The time to take action is now.

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ033-034-041-042-053>055-061-121200-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Houston-Trempealeau-Jackson-
La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Decorah, Waukon, Oelwein, Elkader, 
Caledonia, Arcadia, Whitehall, Black River Falls, La Crosse, 
Sparta, Tomah, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
518 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and 
  Wisconsin, including the following areas, in northeast Iowa, 
  Allamakee, Clayton, Fayette, and Winneshiek. In southeast 
  Minnesota, Houston. In Wisconsin, Crawford, Grant, Jackson, La 
  Crosse, Monroe, Richland, Trempealeau, and Vernon. 

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning

* Locally heavy rain possible into the morning hours.

* An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
  possible. Flash flooding is already occurring in some areas.
  Additional flash flooding remains possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

WIZ043-044-121500-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Mauston and Friendship
518 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central Wisconsin, including the following areas, 
  Adams and Juneau. 

* Until 10 AM CDT this morning

* Locally heavy rain possible into the morning hours.

* 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible. If 
  this rain falls on the same areas that received heavy rain 
  Sunday night, there will be the potential for flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
RRS

699 
WGUS63 KARX 121202
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
702 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Threat of Heavy Rains and Flash Flooding Diminishing...

.The thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rains were
exiting east of the area as of 645 am. A few showers and storms
may linger in parts of the area through 8 or 9 am, but most of
these are looking to occur in areas that had lighter rainfall
overnight. Thus the flash flood watch will be allowed to expire or
be canceled at 7 am. 

WIZ043-044-121315-
/O.CAN.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Juneau-Adams-
Including the cities of Mauston and Friendship
702 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Wisconsin has been
cancelled. 

The threat of heavy rains had diminished, with any remaining 
showers and thunderstorms is now south of the area. Thus the flash
flood watch has been cancelled. 

$$

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ033-034-041-042-053>055-061-121315-
/O.EXP.KARX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170712T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Houston-Trempealeau-Jackson-
La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Decorah, Waukon, Oelwein, Elkader, 
Caledonia, Arcadia, Whitehall, Black River Falls, La Crosse, 
Sparta, Tomah, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
702 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Iowa, southeast
Minnesota, and Wisconsin will expire at 7 AM CDT this morning. 

Some showers and thunderstorms may linger over parts of northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin through 8 or 9 am, but threat of
flash flood producing heavy rains has diminished and moved east of
the area. Thus the flash flood watch was allowed to expire at 7 
am.

$$
RRS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1052 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.UPDATE...This Afternoon
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Latest water vapor imagery showing a short wave trough moving out
of southwest Minnesota late this morning. With the 850 mb moisture
transport increasing ahead of this wave, expect showers and
scattered thunderstorms to move across northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Due to this increased the rain
chances for these areas this afternoon. With the deep shear
remaining 30 knots or less, not anticipating severe weather with
any of these thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Main short-term fcst concerns are SHRA/TSRA chances this afternoon
and tonight and severe/heavy rain risk with TSRA tonight.

06z data analysis had a broad but weak area of high pressure over
MN/IA/WI. Light winds and a moist BL airmass allowing patchy fog
to develop across much of WI, eastern MN and eastern IA, where
skies have remained clearer since sunset. Shortwave moving across
NEB, coupled with the old frontal boundary and some lower level
moisture transport producing an area of eastward moving SHRA/TSRA
mainly across NE NEB/western IA. Thicker clouds spreading over
western IA/western MN keeping the fog to a minimum in those areas.

No glaring issues noted with 11.00z model initializations, but would
like to see a tighter consensus at the start. Models in general
agreement for a shortwave in rather zonal flow to passes around mid-
day, then for a stronger wave to move into northern MN by 12z Wed.
Detail differences among the models do have impacts on the sensible
weather both this afternoon and tonight, which reduces confidence
for today/tonight. Given potential impacts with SHRA/TSRA this
period, short term fcst confidence is only average this cycle.

For the short term, first concern is the shortwave passing around
mid day and what will it produce for SHRA/TSRA/clouds across the
fcst area late this morning into this afternoon. wave brings with it
a shot of PV advection aloft, along with modest lower level FN/QN
convergence, moisture transport/isentropic lift and steeper mid
level lapse rates. Model soundings also showing some warm air/
capping in the roughly 825-700mb layer. Question is will the
forcing/lift be enough to overcome the capping or generate higher-
based convection above it. Hi-res/CAMs models that have a better
handle on the NEB convection early this morning spread some
SHRA/isolated TSRA across the fcst area around mid day, while mainly
other models keep the SHRA/TSRA generally south of the fcst area,
closer to the old frontal boundary lifting across southern IA. For
now will leave some small 20-30% SHRA/TSRA chances across mainly the
central/south parts of the fcsts area today. If the mid-day
SHRA/TSRA solution is more correct, more clouds will result and
impacting highs today. Will stay with the consensus highs for today.

Much uncertainty with convective evolution tonight as the next
stronger shortwave moves east along the US/Can border and sfc low
pressure moves into southern MN/northern IA by 12z Wed. Considerable
spread among both larger scale and hi-res CAMs models on timing/
location of SHRA/TSRA to develop/move across much of the region
tonight. General consensus is for lower level thermo-dynamic forcing
ahead of the northern plains low/cold front to to initiate
convection in west central to NW MN late this afternoon or early
this evening, with what looks to be plenty of CAPE/shear for super-
cells. This convection to then organize into a complex and roll
southeast per the Corfidi/propagation vectors. Just what trajectory
is the question for tonight. Some models take the complex more east
across central MN into northern WI while others drop it more south
into IA. Thus the SWODY1 outlook for tonight is rather broad across
the region. SW 1/3 to 1/2 of the region progged to be under rather
warm 700mb temps/capping tonight, but at the same time, soundings
showing lifting saturated 750mb parcels results in as much as 2k
j/kg CAPE and minimal CIN. At the same time, 850mb moisture
transport translating NE this evening may trigger a 'warm advection
wing' of convection with the old frontal boundary lifting north
across IA. This much like what happened Sun night.

At this time, now, will trend SHRA/TSRA chances tonight toward a
blend of those from the Monday day crew and a consensus of the
latest models, vs. leaning toward any one deterministic model.
Again, confidence on timing/placement of SHRA/TSRA chances tonight
not all that high. For now, the SWODY1 slight risk of severe TSRA
across about the NW half of the fcst area tonight is reasonable as
stronger deep shear is north and timing there would be earlier. See
hydro section below for info on heavy rain/flooding/flash flooding
threat tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

For Wed thru Thu night: main fcst concerns this period are lingering
SHRA/TSRA chances Wed, cooler temps by Thu.

Reasonable agreement for the wave over northern MN at 12z Wed to
move east of the region by 00z Thu, A secondary northern stream wave
to then drop across the great lakes Thu/Thu night, returning NW flow
aloft to the Upper Midwest for the later parts of the week. Fcst
confidence this period is average to good.

Shortwave trough passing north of the region Wed drags the sfc
low/cold front across the area Wed. With some CAPE remaining over
the area ahead of these features and cooling temps aloft, some
lingering SHRA/TSRA chances over mainly the south/east parts of the
fcst area Wed look quite reasonable. Until the front would pass,
there may be a marginal risk of strong/severe storms per SWODY2.
Rather warm airmass remains over the area Wed ahead of the front.
Stayed with a blend of the guidance highs for Wed, but if skies end
up sunnier than expected, many highs across the south 1/2 of the
fcst area could well end up in the lower 90s. Cooling/drying arrives
behind the cold front for Wed night thru Thu night as the next wave
passes SE across the great lakes and low-mid level flow becomes NE
to NW. Consensus highs/lows about 5F below normal for Thu/Thu night
looking well trended at this time.

For Fri thru Mon (days 4-7): main fcst concern this period is
temperatures.

Reasonable model consensus for NW flow aloft to persist over the
region Fri/Sat, but for hgts to be gradually rising as mid level
ridging moves east across central NOAM. By Sun/Mon the mid level
ridge axis is progged to slide across the Upper Midwest. Day 4-7
fcst confidence is average to good.

The high from Thu remains over the region Fri. with what should be
plenty of sunshine, the airmass looks to modify in place, with Fri
highs looking to be near normal. Some lower level warm advections
looks set to return Fri night/Sat as the high slips south. Under
what should be more sunny skies, consensus highs for Sat a category
or so above normal looking well trended. With the mid level ridge
axis to slide across the region Sun/Mon, the trend of day 6/7 highs
also a category or so above normal looks good. With the mid level
ridge axis over the region Sun/Mon, SHRA/TSRA chances mainly
remaining west/north of the fcst area these days appear well trended
for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Once any early morning radiational BR/FG burns off by or shortly
after 13z, generally good VFR expected today into this evening with
winds becoming light S/SE. May see isolated to sct -SHRA and
isolated TSRA in the area late this morning/this afternoon, but
these looking to be light and high-based if they occur with
cigs/vsbys remaining VFR. Given small chance of occurrence, left
mention of these out of the tafs for now. Bigger concern is later
this evening and the overnight hours late in the taf period.

Reasonably strong signal among the fcst models for a complex of
SHRA/TSRA to roll SE across the region mainly in the 04-05z to 09-10z
time-frame. However plenty of detail differences with timing and
placement of this complex across the area mainly overnight, thus
confidence on impacts at the airfields later in the taf period is on
the low side at this time. For now, carried a 6sm -SHRA with VCTS/CB
at both taf sites for the time window mentioned above. Some
improvement then toward the end of the taf period as complex would
be passing/exiting the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

The greater threat from TSRA tonight may be locally heavy rains
and potential for flash flooding/flooding. PW values are progged
to be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range tonight, along with warm cloud
depths of 4 to 4.5 km. TSRA tonight are looking to be efficient
rain produces with potential for deep warm rain process. (The deep
warm cloud depths also looking to negate some of the severe hail
threat with any TSRA) The higher of the rainfall fcst remains
along/east of the MS river, though given the spread among the
model solutions early this morning, confidence is not all that
high in the placement of the heavies rain threat. Some parts of
the fcst area saw 1 to locally 3.5 inches of rain Sun night. If
heavy rains were to fall on these locations again, some flash
flooding or flooding could result. Given the lower confidence on
where locally heavy rains may fall tonight and scattered nature
of the heavy rains Sun night, will not issue a flood/flash flood
watch at this time and will issue another ESF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...Boyne
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....RRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032-
054-061-121100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Crawford-Grant-
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected.

Thunderstorms are likely across the area later this evening and
overnight. A few of these could be strong to severe. Heavy rain is
possible with any storm, which could result in localized flooding
and rises on rivers and streams. Hail and damaging winds are also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms chances continue on Wednesday, mainly south and east
of La Crosse. A few of these could be strong with gusty winds and
small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested tonight. Rainfall reports are
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ033-034-041>044-053-055-121100-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Richland-
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Wisconsin...southwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected.

A flash flood watch is in effect for much of tonight.
Thunderstorms are likely across the area later this evening and
overnight. A few of these could be strong to severe. Heavy rain is
possible with any storm, which could result in flash flooding and
rises on rivers and streams. Hail and damaging winds are also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms chances continue on Wednesday, mainly south and east
of La Crosse. A few of these could be strong with gusty winds and
small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested tonight. Rainfall reports are
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

04/Boyne