Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
642 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Still quite a challenging forecast over the next 24 hours with
regard to convective potential. Early this morning a surface
trough/cold front was situated from western Minnesota westward
back into South Dakota, while a warm front was lifting northward
across the area. Elevated convection has developed in the mid-
level warm advection/frontogenetical zone across northern Iowa
through southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. This activity
is expected to advance eastward early this morning. The storms formed
above the inversion in a region of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and
30-50 kts of effective shear. With the elevated nature of these
storms, a bit of hail and locally heavy rainfall are the primary
concerns.

Heading into today, there may be some decrease in convective
activity for a time this morning. However, high-res models really
have struggled with this environment over the past several hours.
With forcing tied to the mid-level warm advection/isentropic lift
continuing through the morning, really cannot rule out storms
just about anywhere this morning. Model guidance generally
supports showers/storms continuing to develop within the sloping
mid-level frontal zone across South Dakota this morning moving
eastward into the are later this morning and into the afternoon,
especially near and north of Interstate 90. However, some
intensification/redevelopment of storms should occur southwestward
along the surface front during the afternoon with MLCAPEs near
1000-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 30-45 kts to work with as
inhibition weakens. The morning precipitation certainly has the
potential to influence this afternoon's convective potential,
including placement of boundaries and degree of destabilization.
While the shear profiles would support supercell storms early on,
would expect a trend toward a linear orientation of storms fairly
quickly given the strong frontogenetic forcing. The main threats
should be hail and winds, with locally heavy rainfall possible if
storms train over the same areas. Otherwise, showers/storms should
diminish from north to south tonight as the front slides south.
Warm temps in the 80s are expected ahead of the front across
northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin, with highs in the 70s to
near 80 farther north.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Cooler air will filter across the region behind a cold front on
Friday with breezy northwest winds, but with mainly dry conditions.
A longwave trough then will deepen across the Great Lakes this
weekend into Monday. This will result in cool high temps in the mid
60s to low 70s with spotty chances for showers/thunder as shortwave
troughs rotate through the flow. Overall, expect precip to remain
isolated to scattered at best, with highest chances during the
afternoon hours during peak heating.

The flow will begin to flatten on Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface
high pressure building across the region early in the week will
begin to shift east by Tuesday, allowing warmer, more seasonable air
to lift back north Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for
showers/storms increasing towards mid-week as low pressure develops
to the west across the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Lower confidence forecast this TAF issuance with instability
around and multiple waves of storms expected. A cold front will
move into the instability today and bring a wind shift and also
periods of storms. Confidence is low on the timing of the storms
but high that storms will be periodic through the day.

Storms could very easily bring vsbys down to IFR depending on the
strength.

The front will move south through the area and bring clearing
overnight.

Amendments are likely given the complexity of the forecast today
and this evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Baumgardt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
406 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-231200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
406 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of thunderstorms are likely today into tonight. Severe
storms are possible late this morning through this evening, mainly
near and south of Interstate 90. Large hail, damaging winds, and
heavy rainfall are all possible. Areas that receive repeated
rounds of thunderstorms may experience localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at times Saturday through
Monday with thunderstorms also possible on Wednesday. The
probability for severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Makowski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
826 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

IAZ030-221415-
Clayton-
826 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON COUNTY...

At 825 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Farmersburg, or
near Elkader, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkader, McGregor, Garnavillo, Marquette, Farmersburg, St. Olaf,
Clayton, Giard, and National.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4296 9161 4306 9118 4298 9116 4296 9114
      4294 9115 4291 9114 4289 9111 4287 9110
      4284 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1325Z 255DEG 32KT 4291 9138

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
952 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

MNZ086-094-221545-
Dodge-Mower-
952 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOWER AND DODGE
COUNTIES...

At 950 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Blooming Prairie to 6 miles west of
Northwood. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Dodge Center, Mantorville, Ramsey, Kasson, Hayfield, Grand
Meadow, Le Roy, Adams, West Concord, Brownsdale, Lyle, and Claremont.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9268 4384 9269 4383 9245
      4350 9245 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1450Z 265DEG 37KT 4389 9310 4347 9334

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1025 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

MNZ079-087-095-221630-
Wabasha-Olmsted-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Rochester, and Preston
1025 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WABASHA, OLMSTED AND
FILLMORE COUNTIES...

At 1023 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Dodge Center to Grand Meadow to
south of Spring Valley. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gust of 30 to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with
these storms.

Some locations that will be impacted include...
Zumbro Falls to Plainview and Elgin, Oronoco and Rochester to
Stewartville and Chatfield, Spring Valley and Preston.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Do not drive
your vehicle through flooded roadways.

RRS

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