Special Weather Statement, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Self-destruct Sunshine and Afternoon Thunder Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...500 mb upper low will continue to spin
just north of the Upper Great Lakes and with it will rotate spokes
of energy over the forecast area, during the heat of the day. This
will continue the  showers and thunderstorms from the afternoon into
the evening, before ending. There will still be a small chance for
showers overnight, as another shortwave trough rotates into the
region overnight. Models (GFS, ECMWF, and both Hi-Res models) show
showers overnight and then increasing in coverage late morning
before the MLCAPE pushes up into the 200-300 J/KG range from the
daytime heating in NE Lower around 18z. However, this time, the
upper low and the cold pool aloft begins to finally move to the east
and brings the chances down by 00z/Wed.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Wet bulb zero heights are even lower
than today (around 6900 ft.) so the chances for small hail will
still be there. The DCAPE is also around 150 J/KG so there could be
some winds issues, and if the storms become "pulsey" we could run
into some issues with the thunderstorms. However, this seems to be a
remote chance based on the magnitudes of the MLCAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Briefly drying out midweek...

High Impact Weather Potential: Chance of thunderstorms Thursday
through Thursday night.

Pattern Forecast: Broad/weak upper level troughing continues across
the eastern third of the CONUS Tuesday evening with the last in a
series of shortwaves progressing east across the forecast area.
Subtle shortwave ridging and attendant bubble of high pressure
briefly works its way atop the Great Lakes Tuesday night - Wednesday
before heights gradually lower Thursday ahead of vertically stacked
low pressure trekking eastward across southern Canada. This combined
with a subtle perturbation cutting across the central plains will
combine for renewed shower and thunderstorm chances late Wednesday
night/early Thursday through Thursday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Shower/thunderstorm arrival
timing late Wednesday night - Thursday.

Any lingering isolated showers east of I-75 Tuesday evening are
expected to end quickly as any mentionable forcing and mid level
moisture ahead of Tuesday afternoon's shortwave slides into southern
Ontario. Subtle height rises will be the rule for the remainder of
Tuesday night, along with surface high pressure nosing into the
region...becoming briefly centered across the western Great Lakes
during the the day Wednesday. Mostly sunny skies, light winds and
near-normal temps will lend themselves to a nearly picture perfect
first day of astronomical summer.

High clouds will begin to increase late in the day Wednesday,
primarily across western areas, ahead of the next system approaching
from the west. Return flow will be ongoing Wednesday evening as low-
mid level winds gradually shift southwesterly allowing deep layer
moisture to increase (evident by PWs progged above 1.50 inches
across northern Lower by Thursday morning). A thickening/lowering
cloud deck will be the rule after sunset along with showers arriving
west of I-75 as early as sunrise Thursday, spreading eastward across
the forecast through the mid-morning hours. Some of the showers
could be heavy at times with aforementioned deep moisture (PWs >
1.50 inches, K-Index in the mid-30s) as forcing maximized along the
system's warm front is expected to lift across northern Michigan
through the early morning hours Thursday. This certainly supports
WPC's Day 3 outlook for excessive rainfall across the far
southwestern counties of the CWA, which is an area that's already
received 1-3 inches above June's normal-to-date rainfall. Rainfall
diminishes in coverage and intensity by the midday hours Thursday,
although additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
remain possible through Thursday evening as a cold front is quick to
follow but aids to focus any additional heavier precip downstate
into the Ohio Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Initial zonal flow pattern aloft won't last for long as some mid-
level energy coming ashore British Columbia quickly leads to a
developing broad trough over the northern CONUS by the weekend. This
will lead to another somewhat unsettled weather pattern at times for
northern Michigan through the long term period.

Friday morning a cold front will be exiting our southeastern CWA
with a few lingering showers quickly coming to an end as drier air
encroaches behind the front. It appears most of northern Michigan
will be largely dry Friday through Saturday morning. Forecast
details become a little murkier thereafter as some model differences
begin to creep in. The rest of Saturday may very well be mostly dry
across most of northern Michigan as suggested by the ECMWF and
Canadian, but the GFS has a shortwave crossing the area that could
perhaps generate a few showers and maybe a storm or two. For
Saturday night into Sunday, the ECMWF was wanting to bring a
stronger shortwave across the Northern Plains that would lead to a
decent developing surface low tracking through the Lower Peninsula.
However, with the 19.12Z run, the ECMWF has come more in line with
the GFS and Canadian, with only broad upper troughing over the Great
Lakes and a weak surface low. Nevertheless, this system looks to
bring the best shot for some substantial rainfall coverage through
this period of the forecast. We look to dry out Sunday night as a
surface ridge extends into the area but perhaps will see a few
diurnal showers on Monday.

Temperatures look to drop back below seasonal normals by the weekend
as the upper trough moves overhead. Perhaps even some readings in
the upper 40s Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Deep troughing and cold air aloft will remain over Northern
Michigan tonight and Tuesday. Scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast thru Tuesday evening as
a result...with mainly VFR conditions occasionally dropping to
MVFR within some of the heavier showers/storms. Mainly
light/variable winds tonight into early Tuesday will become W/NW
at around 10 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tonight through Wednesday...The sfc low that has been in the Upper
Great Lakes will begin to move out of the region to the northeast
tonight. As it does the pressure gradient will slacken and remain
that way through Wednesday. Therefore the winds are expected to be
10 knots or less through the day on Wednesday, with a few gusts to
15 knots during the day.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JSL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-201100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
330 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across primarily northeast
lower Michigan early this evening. Severe storms are not expected,
but some of the stronger storms will be able to produce small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across northern lower Michigan
Tuesday afternoon, and again Thursday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
825 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

MIZ029-030-035-200130-
Alcona-Ogemaw-Oscoda-
825 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALCONA...
NORTHEASTERN OGEMAW AND SOUTHEASTERN OSCODA COUNTIES...

At 825 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mio, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
McKinley, Lupton, Curtisville and Mack Lake.

LAT...LON 4451 8385 4451 8389 4448 8389 4440 8400
      4459 8415 4473 8403 4459 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 315DEG 12KT 4464 8406

MLR