Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Gaylord, MI

516 
WHUS73 KAPX 292010
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

LMZ345-346-300415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-170430T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0043.170429T2100Z-170501T0000Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
410 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-348-300415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-170430T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0043.170429T2100Z-170501T0000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
410 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344-300415-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0043.170429T2100Z-170501T0000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
410 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-300415-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0043.170429T2100Z-170501T0000Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
410 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-349-300415-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0043.170429T2100Z-170501T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
410 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1029 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

High pressure is nosing into N Lower and E Upper this morning.
This is pushing a relatively dry north flow into the region. The
warm front that will move into the Upper Great Lakes later today,
will take its time as the cool, dry flow from the high impedes the
precipitation along the front. This is expected to allow more
sunshine for the day, and lower minimum relative humidity for the
afternoon. This will also delay the onset of the precipitation into
the early evening. Near term models are already trending to a
slower progression north, so have trended that way as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Dry and cool today...widespread precip developing tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Elongated inverted trough/warm front
extends from low pressure centered over Texas thru the Bootheel of
Missouri and along the Ohio Valley early this morning. Meanwhile...
high pressure is centered over the Northern Plains...with weak
ridging extending thru the Northern Great Lakes region. Weak wave
riding thru the fast SW upper level flow that produced an area of
light rain mixed with some spotty light snow last night has pushed
east out of Michigan...leaving mostly cloudy skies just a few
patches of lingering light rain/drizzle early this morning. Temps
remain quite cool in the mid 30s to lower 40s at this hour.

As we head into today...upstream high pressure will slide into
Northern Michigan in the wake of the departing short wave...
establishing a better foothold on our area. Clouds will decrease
this morning...but will begin to increase again from south to north
later this afternoon as the Ohio Valley trough/warm front begins to
lift northward toward the Great Lakes region in response to further
deepening/organization of the Southern Plains low. Widespread precip
will begin to develop from south to north across most of Northern
Lower Michigan this evening...making continued slow northward
progress thru the Tip of the Mitt and the Straits area during the
overnight hours. Gradual northward progress of WAA along with deep
moisture advection will limit any chances of snow mixing in with the
rain to the northern edge of the precip shield. Instability will be
virtually nonexistent tonight...so thunder is not expected. While
some of our southern CWA will likely see a quarter to a half an inch
of rainfall tonight...the potentially heavier rainfall should hold
off until Sunday and Sunday night.

High temps this afternoon will range from the mid 40s in Eastern
Upper Michigan to the lower 50s along and south of M-72. Low temps
tonight will be mainly in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Heavy soaking rains Sunday through Monday morning...

High impact weather potential...Moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday
through Monday morning (particularly over northern Lower MI) will
lead to rises on area streams and rivers and possibly some minor
flooding. Embedded thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday
morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A very moist airmass will lift into
northern Michigan Sunday into Monday with anomalously high PWATs
climbing to 1 to 1.5" (2 to 4 standard deviations above the mean).
Pronounced baroclinic zone and warm front laid out downstate Sunday
morning will slowly lift northward through the day. Meanwhile
ongoing strong WAA just above the surface and northward creeping
band of frontogenetic lift will generate additional rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall over northern Michigan through the day,
heaviest south of the Bridge. This will all take place out ahead of
an intense occluding low over the Central Plains that will slowly
lift into the Upper Midwest Sunday night into Monday. As the core of
this system reaches Iowa Sunday evening, a robust LLJ will develop
and nose into northern MI. This will result in Sunday night being
the most efficient period of moisture transport, and warm cloud
depths approaching 3.5 km will promote efficient rainfall over all
of northern MI. Marginal elevated instability will come into play
over northern MI late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with 200-
300 J/kg of MUCAPE, so some embedded thunderstorms are definitely
plausible given the strong lift that will be in play.

The best instability and lift will push east of the area by late
Monday morning as the dry slot encroaches, bringing an end to the
steady, heavier rains. CAA will strip out the deeper moisture by
midday, though there will be enough lingering low level wrap-around
moisture to allow for scattered afternoon showers as low level lapse
rates steepen. This will also lead to breezy conditions Monday
afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Models have been in pretty good
agreement with the track of this system and generally consistent
with the axis of heaviest precipitation laying out from Chicago to
northeast Lower MI. They remain split on actual precip amounts,
however, with the NAM (as an outlier) generating more than 5" of
rain across central Lower MI from Saturday night through Monday
morning. The GFS and ECMWF are more conservative (and believable)
with 2 to 3" over northern Lower. The Canadian had higher amounts
more in line with the NAM but backed off a bit with the 29.00Z run,
now more in line with the GFS/ECMWF. Additionally, GEFS and SREF QPF
plumes are showing less spread and greater clustering around their
respective means...roughly 2 to 3" across northern Lower and 1 to
1.5" over eastern Upper. Highest totals will generally fall
southeast of a line from Cadillac to Alpena.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

High impact weather potential...None.

Intense occluded low will lift from the western Upper Peninsula into
southern Ontario Monday night. CAA will be ongoing with wrap-around
showers continuing Monday night into Tuesday. Breezy conditions will
develop again on Tuesday on the back side of this departing system.
Much drier air will start to filter into the region Tuesday night,
bringing an end to any lingering showers (though a few wet
snowflakes could mix in Tuesday evening as temperatures drop through
the 30s). High pressure and a dry airmass will allow for quiet
weather across the region for Wednesday and probably most of
Thursday. However, a system that should largely pass to our south on
Thursday could perhaps brush northern Michigan if it favors a more
northern track shown by the 29.00Z ECMWF. Temperatures will be on a
gradual warming trend through the period, climbing back above
seasonal normals by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Remaining MVFR cigs will quickly mix out this morning...leaving
solid VFR skies for the rest of the day and much of the evening
hours as well. Clouds will increase and cigs will lower to MVFR
from south to north later this evening and overnight as widespread
rain develops. Northerly winds at 10 to 15 kts will become E/NE
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today and this
evening as surface ridging builds overhead and then pushes north of
Michigan. Conditions will begin to strengthen to SCA criteria late
tonight and Sunday as deepening low pressure slowly lifts NE toward
the Western Great Lakes region. Widespread precip will develop
tonight and will continue into Sunday and Sunday night as deep
moisture surges northward into Michigan ahead of this system.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
301200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-5NM East of
Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National
Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-Grand Traverse Bay
south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point
to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac
Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand
Traverse Light MI-Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-Manistee to
Point Betsie MI-Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to
Point Iroquois MI-St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E.
Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-
Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand
Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
317 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy rain is expected Sunday through Monday morning across Northern
Lower Michigan...which could lead to minor flooding and ponding of
water.

Thunderstorms are possible across Northern Michigan Sunday night
into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.