Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Gaylord, MI

377 
WWUS53 KAPX 070046
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
846 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

MIC113-143-070115-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170707T0115Z/
Roscommon MI-Missaukee MI-
846 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN ROSCOMMON AND NORTHEASTERN MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...

At 846 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Higgins Lake,
or near Houghton Lake, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Houghton Lake, Roscommon, Prudenville, Roscommon County Airport,
Higgins Lake and South Higgins Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4441 8499 4446 8494 4451 8449 4423 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 304DEG 19KT 4439 8479 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MJG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
805 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...Severe thunderstorms possible into this evening...

High impact weather potential...Large hail and gusty winds possible
in stronger thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...Shortwave trough digging southeast out
of southern Canada, with an increasingly defined cold front racing
out just ahead of it. Northern Michigan clearly within the warm
sector this afternoon, as evident by temperatures up into the 70s
and 80s and dewpoints well into the 60s. Sharp instability gradient
lies within this warm/moist sector, with upwards of a few thousand
joules/kg of most unstable cape across sections of our area per
latest RAP analysis. Earlier MCS is long gone, but associated
outflow boundaries and convectively agitated mid levels has resulted
in renewed shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, which
is punching east across the area as of this writing. Storms have
largely behaved, although radar trends definitely suggest some small
hailers and isolated gusty winds. Further west, the destabilization
process has begun as earlier cloudy skies have cleared. Approach of
cold front and remnant outflow/differential heating boundaries may
yet be the trigger for additional storms to develop within this
developing instability axis.

Cold front gets a kick southeast overnight as mid level flow
consolidates and strengthens, clearing our area near or shortly
after sunrise.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges...Addressing severe weather
potential into this evening.

Details...Low confidence forecast indeed heading through the
remainder of this afternoon and evening. Cold pool triggered showers
and thunderstorms will continue to propagate east across the area
the next few hours, waiting on additional upstream development to
arrive later this afternoon and evening as main cold front nears.
Much uncertainty on just how organized this upstream convection will
become, although earlier mentioned destabilization and arrival of
primary wave/cold front does support some decent organization. Would
tend to believe best activity would translate southeast as ongoing
overhead convection begins to stabilize the environment. While not
overly strong, deep layer and effective shear in excess of 35 knots
and still robust instability outside outflow stabilization area may
yet result in some severe weather later this afternoon through early
evening. Not a slam-dunk by no means, but something to monitor for
sure. Front clears the region from northwest to southeast overnight,
ending the rain threat in the process.

Despite frontal passage, lingering low level moisture and enhanced
surface convergence within background northwest wind environment may
provide a few afternoon showers across portions of northeast lower
Michigan Friday. Shouldn't be a big deal, with much of the area and
most of the time remaining dry. It will be noticeably cooler and
drier on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...Dry through Saturday; rain chances Saturday night into Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper level trough axis will pivot
across the Upper Great Lakes Friday night with cold air advection
ongoing. Longwave trough pattern will remain over the region through
the weekend as a deep cutoff low wobbles over Hudson Bay. However,
surface high pressure over the central/northern Mississippi Valley
combined with a dry airmass overhead is expected to keep dry
conditions over the area through Saturday. A cold front will drop
south across northern Michigan late Saturday night into Sunday,
interacting with a narrow ribbon of higher PWATs ~1 inch along the
front. This will bring the next chance of showers...and possibly a
few storms by Sunday afternoon with increasing daytime instability.
Temperatures look to remain a tad below normal.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Rain chances Saturday night into Sunday
will be the main forecast concern. Fgen lift looks to be strongest
along the front as it crosses through eastern Upper, gradually
weakening as it progresses further south through the day Sunday.
Meanwhile the better instability and hence thunder potential looks
to develop generally south of M-72 Sunday afternoon. Not expecting
severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

An early week cold front and shortwave will bring the primary
chances for rain, and possibly some thunder, as high pressure will
be overhead for the remainder of the week. Pattern remains blocky,
and a cutoff low over the Gulf of Alaska could eject some shortwaves
and kick off showers in currently expected dry periods. Temperatures
will warm through the period, starting near normal and warming to
slightly above by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Batch of thunderstorms continue over parts of NE lower Michigan
this hour...close to APN. But otherwise TSTM threat at the
terminal sites is minimal for the the next few hours. There is a
batch of TSTMs moving through far western upper Michigan that will
roll down through northern lower Michigan late this evening into
the overnight hours...but should weaken before getting into the
area. Will see...

Cold front swings through the region overnight into Friday
morning. Behind the front...there may be a period of MVFR and
possible IFR cigs Friday morning as the shallow cooler airmass
overspreads the region. Improvement for the afternoon.

Outside of any storms...winds will be generally under 10
knots...westerly tonight turning into the north for Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Southwest to west winds become northwest overnight and
Friday as a cold front crosses the region. Thunderstorms remain
possible prior to this frontal passage, some of which could become
strong to severe producing very gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...MSB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-071200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
311 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Rest of this afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east across the
area for the remainder of this afternoon into the evening. A few
of these storms may become severe through 10 pm, with damaging
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and hail up to and over an inch in
diameter the primary severe weather threat. An isolated tornado
also remains possible. In addition, any storms that do form will
be capable of producing brief periods of very heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, as well
as Sunday afternoon into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency Managers, spotter activation may be required later this
afternoon and evening.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

msb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
626 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW CLEAR LAKE        44.40N 84.29W
07/06/2017                   OGEMAW             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CLEAR
            LAKE.

&&

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
629 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HIGGINS LAKE       44.44N 84.71W
07/06/2017                   ROSCOMMON          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND LIMBS DOWN ALONG THE
            SOUTHWEST SIDE OF HIGGINS LAKE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE SKIDWAY LAKE       44.20N 84.03W
07/06/2017                   OGEMAW             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TREE AND POWER LINE DOWN ON CAR.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

ALM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
720 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ROSCOMMON          44.51N 84.61W
07/06/2017                   ROSCOMMON          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN IN 200 BLOCK OF SHIRLEY LANE. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
734 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE RIFLE RIVER STATE  44.35N 83.93W
07/06/2017                   OGEMAW             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR SAGE LAKE.

&&

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUPTON                  44.43N 84.02W
07/06/2017                   OGEMAW             MI   PUBLIC

            TREE UPROOTED. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MJG