Frost Advisory 8, NWS Gaylord, MI

749 
WWUS73 KAPX 010142
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
942 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

MIZ016-019-010945-
/O.EXA.KAPX.FR.Y.0008.171001T0400Z-171001T1200Z/
Emmet-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Charlevoix
942 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a FROST
ADVISORY, which is in effect until 8 AM EDT Sunday. 

* TEMPERATURE...lower to middle 30s by late tonight in much of 
  the advisory area, especially inland from the Great Lakes. 

* IMPACTS...tender vegetation may be damaged or killed if left 
  unprotected or not brought indoors. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-021>024-027>030-032>036-041-042-010945-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0008.171001T0400Z-171001T1200Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Mancelona, 
Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, 
Cadillac, Lake City, Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, 
Gladwin, and Standish
942 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...lower to middle 30s by late tonight in much of the
  advisory area, especially inland from the Great Lakes. Typically
  colder locations may dip into the upper 20s.  

* IMPACTS...tender vegetation may be damaged or killed if left 
  unprotected or not brought indoors. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$
JK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...Another clear and cold night with areas of frost...

High Impact Weather Potential...Areas of frost...especially for
interior sections away from the Lakes.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air thru the column remain centered over the Great Lakes region
this afternoon. Sunny skies abound across our CWA...as afternoon
temps peak in the low to mid 60s.

Cold high pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place tonight...
shifting just east of our CWA toward daybreak Sunday. Expect another
clear...calm and cold night across the Northwoods. Most inland
locations across Northern Lower Michigan will see frost development
again overnight as low temps drop into the low to mid 30s.

Southerly flow/WAA will begin on Sunday as the surface high center
pushes east of Michigan. If you liked today...you're going to love
Sunday. Expect abundant sunshine for the first day of October with
afternoon highs reaching into the mid to upper 60s. Enjoy!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...Warming by Monday, Warmer Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...A chance of thunderstorms when the
cold front moves through on Tuesday afternoon.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Sunday night, the 500 mb ridge moves to
the east and the sfc low to the west begins to creep into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. It looks like it should stay dry as the models
keep the majority of the moisture to the south and west of the
forecast area. The ECMWF is printing out precipitation in the area,
but there is a lot of dry air in the soundings starting around 550
mb and down to the sfc. So the qpf doesn't make sense. So a dry
forecast through Sunday night and into Monday as the heights begin
to build again, forcing the jet back to the west again. Monday night
the jet continues to the west so it will remain dry through the
night. Tuesday, as the sfc low moves into Ontario north of  Lake
Superior, the cold front begins to move into W Upper, so
thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon in E Upper

Primary Forecast concerns...If the front moves into the region a
little earlier, it could pose some issues as the heat of the day
(and it's looking like a mid to upper 70s day) could kick up
the energy for the storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...A Roller Coaster of Temperatures and Rain Fall...

Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)...The cold front and rain
rolls through Tuesday night for the thunderstorms, and then rain
showers on Wednesday as the 850 mb temperatures fall to around +4C
and a 500 mb shortwave trough moves into the Upper Great Lakes. The
rain will last into Thursday as the moisture and 850 mb temperature
continue to cool. Th 850 mb temperatures don't warm until Friday as
the 500 mb heights build and the 850-700 mb layer dries out.
Although the ECMWF shows the moisture, and cool temperatures
remaining into Friday, so rain could continue. Then the models
completely diverge with the ECMWF dry on Saturday, and a pretty
hefty system moves into the Upper Great Lakes brining rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

VFR conditions will persist at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF
sites this afternoon...tonight and Sunday as strong high pressure
and dry air remain firmly in control. Light/variable winds this
afternoon and tonight will become southerly AOB 10 kts by midday
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Sunday night
despite strengthening southerly flow on the backside of departing
high pressure. Dry wx will persist thru the entire weekend and into
the first part of the workweek.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     MIZ017-018-021>024-027>030-032>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-011200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
313 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Areas of frost will again develop late tonight to much of Northern
Lower Michigan....especially across interior sections away from the
lakeshore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday Night through
Wednesdayt.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.