Frost Advisory 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

542 
WWUS73 KAPX 011833
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
233 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-020245-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0005.170902T0400Z-170902T1200Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-
Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta,
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Lake City, 
Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
233 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Lower to middle 30s in many inland areas, 
  especially low lying locales. 

* IMPACTS...Tender vegetation may be damaged or killed if left 
  unprotected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

906 
WWUS73 KAPX 020110
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
910 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017


MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-021200-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0005.170902T0400Z-170902T1200Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-
Arenac-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta,
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Lake City, 
Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
910 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Lower to middle 30s in many inland areas, 
  especially low lying locales. 

* IMPACTS...Tender vegetation may be damaged or killed if left 
  unprotected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

JZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
653 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...Cool temperatures and mostly clear conditions to continue...

High impact weather potential...Some more frost looking possible
tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...Expansive area of high pressure
continues to slowly build into the northern Lakes, bringing with it
one chilly airmass for the start of Meteorological Fall. While the
vast majority of the area is devoid of any clouds, very shallow lake
instability continues to drive some strato-cu off northern Lake
Huron. Land breeze development has largely kept these clouds
offshore, although it does appear some are scrapping the northeast
lower coastline. Cloud-free and wind-free conditions across the
interior have really allowed temperatures to tank early this
morning, with several of our typical ice box interior locations
already dropping into the upper 30s.

Overhead high pressure is going nowhere fast, and looks to maintain
complete control of our weather heading through today and tonight.

Forecast challenges are rather minimal, and what there are center on
lingering lake clouds this morning and cold temperatures/possible
additional frost again tonight.

Details: Fist order of business...inherited frost advisory will be
maintained through early this morning as temperatures will continue
to fall for a few more hours yet. Widespread 30s expected across our
traditional colder locales by sunrise. Otherwise, any lingering
northeast lower lake clouds expected to mix out quickly this
morning, leaving behind mostly sunny skies across northern Michigan
today (may see just a few very shallow cu develop). Plenty of
sunshine will do a quick number on these very chilly morning
temperatures, with readings rebounding into the mid and upper 60s
this afternoon...although readings near Lake Huron may be just a
touch cooler.

Not a whole lot of change tonight with mostly clear and chilly
weather set to continue. Beginning stages of weak warm air advection
starts to take shape late as center of surface high pushes further
off to the east. This will primarily impact eastern upper Michigan,
keeping their overnight lows at least a few degrees warmer than what
is currently being observed. Elongation of surface ridge back across
northern lower should once again set up a very light wind regime,
allowing temperatures to plummet quickly this evening. Given the
continued modification of the airmass, think readings may end up
just a touch warmer than this past night. Likely to see some patchy
frost, but not confident it will be enough to warrant another
headline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...Chance for rain Saturday, then Dry Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms possible late Sunday
night.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Saturday morning a 500 mb cutoff low
will be moving up from the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic States by Saturday night. At that time, another 500
mb shortwave trough moves into the Upper Great Lakes, and looks to
link up with it. This looks to bring showers over the region
Saturday night, but it quickly moves east by Sunday morning so that
it dries out. Another weak 500 mb trough looks to move into the
region overnight, into early Monday morning. So maybe another chance
of rain very late.

Primary Forecast concerns...with all of the shortwaves, cutoffs and
tropical systems around, the paths of the of these systems is sure
to change again. So there is low confidence Saturday and Sunday.
Sunday night also looks a bit "iffy" as the ECMWF looks to back off
a bit on the 06z/Mon to 12z/Mon rain and the GFS barely gets it into
E Upper. Also, While timing of the instabilty for thunder from the
GFS and ECMWF are about 6-12 hours out of sync. So have widened the
threat for thunder in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...Below Normal Temperatures Through the Week...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunder possible Monday into Monday
night.

Extended (Monday through Thursday)...Models have different scenarios
for the upcoming week as the 500 mb low/trough that drops into the
the Upper Great Lakes and cuts off, and hurricane Irma begin to
interact late in the week. With such a strong hurricane, as the
models depict, will consider that not only will the track of the
hurricane change, but the scenarios of the 500 mb low over the Great
Lakes will change as well. Most of this will be in the timing, but
there will be some issues with the strength of the low. What does
look certain is that there will be a chance of rain, but whether
there will be thunder is up for grabs as the cloudiness from the low
over the area will help to disrupt diurnally driven instability by
late in the week. Also with the 500 mb low over the region, we will
begin to see a below normal temperatures through a portion of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

Cool/dry air in place as high pressure settles across the region.
This will provide quiet wx, VFR conditions, and light/variable
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

High pressure will continue to bring sub-advisory winds to
the big waters today and tonight. Southerly winds expected to pick
up a bit very late tonight into Saturday morning, especially across
northern Lake Michigan, as a cold front approaches the region. May
see a brief period of wind gusts approach advisory levels during
this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ008-015-017-
     018-022>024-027>030-033>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
656 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-021200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
656 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Some additional frost is again possible early Saturday morning
across the traditional colder interior locations of northern lower
Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible across the outlook area late Sunday night
through Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.