Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
321 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening with a few weak storms already forming in
the far northwest zones. Upper level analysis shows continued
northwest flow into the Panhandles as high pressure over the
southwest has not shifted as far east as previous guidance
suggested. Enhanced mid-level flow over the eastern Panhandles is
also indicated by short/medium range guidance on the back end of
a closed shortwave now over southeast KS per water vapor imagery.
This will help to increase deep shear values (mostly due to
directional shear as surface winds back to southeast) over the
eastern Panhandles to around 35 knots with around 30 knots for the
western Panhandles this evening. This combined with with surface
dew points around 60 and strong instability (SBCAPE over 2000
J/kg) will support some strong to severe multicells. Forcing will
be limited to a very subtle perturbation in the northwest flow
aloft and Theta-E convergence around SFC-850mb / weak upslope
flow in addition to old outflow boundaries left over from
yesterdays activity. Storm motion should be southeasterly with
forecast hodographs suggesting only 10-15 knot storm motion. This
may lead to some localized flooding concern with any more discrete
cells. However, CAMs suggest congealing into a broken line into
the evening as storms push into the southern Texas Panhandle, and
storm speeds will mostly likely increase as they become outflow
dominant. The tornado risk will be very low due to high LCL
heights and a relatively weak low level wind field. Boundary
induced land spouts can't be ruled out. Latest guidance suggest
storm coverage will be great around 00z with storms exiting the
Panhandles to the south/southeast by 03z-06z.

Wednesday looks to be mostly dry for the area as we finally start
to transition to more north-northeasterly flow aloft. The high
pressure over the southwest is expected to expand over the Four
Corners region with large scale troughing over the northeast
CONUS. Can't rule out a very isolated thunderstorm over the
eastern zones where better low level moisture will exist.
Otherwise, highs should be in the low to mid 90s, right around
average.

Thursday into the extended looks mostly dry with near average
temperatures. However, models show the upper high over the Four
Corners trying to shift west some over the weekend which may lead
to a brief return of northwesterly winds and slight pops mainly
for the western and northern zones. Deterministic models vary
greatly with low level moisture over the weekend period, which
will have an affect on thunderstorm potential and high
temperatures. The same can be said going into next week, although
models are fairly consistent with shifting the upper high to the
east by mid week which should lead to drier/warmer conditions and
most likely above average temperatures.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11/7

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
342 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-050845-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
342 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the Panhandles. Some of these
storms may produce strong winds and large hail as we go into the
afternoon and evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday mainly for the eastern
Texas Panhandle, and then again Friday through Sunday for portions
of the Panhandles. The threat for organized severe weather will
be low, however a strong storm can't be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
422 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

TXZ006-011-042200-
Hartley TX-Oldham TX-
422 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Romero, or 7 miles northeast of Nara Visa, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail, torrential rainfall and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph
will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Romero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 10304 3587 10290 3561 10254 3538 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 328DEG 20KT 3568 10299

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
539 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

TXZ008-009-013-014-042330-
Gray TX-Hutchinson TX-Roberts TX-Carson TX-
539 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Skellytown, or 17 miles northeast of Borger, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pampa and Skellytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 10081 3560 10092 3555 10101 3553 10110
      3553 10123 3573 10129 3583 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 316DEG 12KT 3578 10112

MJG