Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Mix of conditions possible during severe
thunderstorms tonight. Thunderstorms will have erratic winds and
will be pushing easterly across the area. Expect storms to be out
by 06Z. Southwesterly winds after 06Z will be around 20 gust 30
and increasing after 14Z as they turn northerly with gusts up to
60kts. Low clouds will push in with the northerly winds as well,
but right now are not expected to drop below 3000agl.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
See mesoscale discussion below.

Simpson

LONG TERM...
Not much has changed forecast-wise. Tomorrow is still looking
very windy on the backside of the low. Winds tomorrow could gust
up to 70 mph. These north winds will limit our heating potential
tomorrow to slightly below climatological norms. Precip will be
likely in the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle with the wrap
around moisture. Mid- level height rises on Saturday will bring
surface temps back up into the 70s. The next upper level shortwave
passes through the central Plains on Sunday and may bring some
glancing precip to very northern sections of the OK Panhandle.

Weather remains calm for the beginning of the work week as ridging
builds into the area. By mid week there is another chance for
thunderstorms. Models are still very diverse on solutions for both
timing and location of the next big system. Long range solutions
seem to be trending more towards the GFS solution with deepening
and slowing the system from Tuesday to Wednesday/Thursday time
frame. This will continue to need watching for more trends to nail
any details down, but it does seem to bring a good chance for
precip to the area.

Beat

FIRE WEATHER...
After this afternoon's critical fire weather conditions settle
down, elevated fire weather is possible on Sunday for portions
of the southern TX Panhandle. The remainder of next week looks to
stay calm for fire weather concerns.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham.

OK...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

16/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
401 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-241200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
401 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through the late evening hours. The
potential for severe weather will exist across both Panhandles
during this time with up to golf ball size hail and wind gusts
between 60 and 70 mph as the primary threats.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Texas Panhandle through
early evening where south to southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with
gusts over 50 mph will be possible.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the far western Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles where winds will be 30 to 40 mph and
relative humidity values will be 12 to 20 percent.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

It will be windy across western and central parts of the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles on Friday when sustained wind speeds of 30
to 45 mph will be possible. Gusts will range from 45 to 60 mph. A
High Wind Watch has been issued for the entire Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

Thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday and Tuesday through
Thursday. At this time, the threat for severe weather appears to
be low on these days. Elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible for portions of the Panhandles on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this evening.

Area fire managers and emergency management should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday.

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