Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
643 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Scattered thunderstorms currently over central part of forecast
area, with no imminent impact to the terminals.  Expect that
additional development will occur with arrival of outflow-enhanced
frontal boundary which should arrive late this evening at northern
terminals and around 08z Friday at AMA.  Post-frontal stratus
expected to cause widespread MVFR ceilings for most of the day on
Friday at AMA, with IFR to MVFR ceilings expected at northern
terminals.  Northeast and east surface winds expected on Friday
following passage of frontal boundary.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
.Severe Weather Possible this Afternoon...but Picture is
Muddy...

A complex and somewhat odd potential severe weather setup is
noted over our area today.

* Synoptic Overview: West-northwesterly flow is noted aloft around
  an elongated 595dm h5 upper high centered from about Midland to
  Austin. Heights should stay relatively neutral this afternoon
  though there are indications of another weak shortwave brushing
  the northern parts of the combined Panhandles late this afternoon.

* Mesoscale: Flow at h5 of up to 30-35 kts along with reasonable
  directional turning should promote effective shear values of
  around 40 knots this afternoon. Diurnal heating in the western
  TX/OK Panhandles could yield upwards of 3000 to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE
  in a generally uncapped environment. Outflow from storms that are
  moving through the ern OK/TX Panhandles continues to progress
  southwestward and at 2 PM extended from roughly Boise City to
  Spearman to Canadian. Once this outflow loses steam, a convergence
  boundary will set up along it and could possibly become a focus
  for redevelopment later this afternoon. The degree of modification
  behind the boundary will likely determine if a severe threat can
  re-materialize on the cool side of the boundary. Best guess right
  now is that the more stable air will initially win out behind the
  boundary keeping the severe threat to a minimum early to mid
  afternoon north and east of a Stratford to Miami line. Given the
  aforementioned instability in the pseudo warm sector we could see
  a few storms go up along the western stack of Panhandle counties.
  With favorable CAPE/Shear, if storms do go up in this "warm
  sector" they could certainly become severe, especially further
  north where shear is better.

* Threats, timing, location: Strong winds and hail will be the main
  threats though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if a
  robust, organized storm or 2 were to form in the warm sector and
  cross or ride the aforementioned modifying outflow boundary. Hail
  size may be kept from getting all that large due to high freezing
  and WBZ levels along with excessive melting due to the moist
  atmosphere. A complex of storms could move in later in the evening
  from CO and depending on organization and how well we've
  recovered, severe winds could be possible after dark in the
  northern combined Panhandles. Southwestern parts of the TX
  Panhandle look most likely to avoid the severe weather today and
  tonight due to lacking shear, but a pulse strong or severe storm
  cannot be completely ruled out in these locations.

Simpson

DISCUSSION...
Friday's weather will be influenced quite a bit by what goes on
tonight. A cold front over west central Kansas and east central
Colorado now should push through the panhandles tonight. If
widespread rain develops over the northern CWA tonight as expected,
then plenty of low level moisture will be brought south across the
panhandles behind the front. The post frontal air mass will likely
be characterized by low clouds across much of the area for most of
the day. These low clouds may cut back on the instability which
would probably cut back on rain chances. Have gone ahead and lowered
some pops for Friday, but they probably could be lowered some more.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the
mountains of Colorado and New Mexico Friday afternoon and they
should head this way Friday evening in the northwest flow aloft.
These may not make it all the way into our area depending on how
much instability is realized.

Saturday could also be a cloudy and cooler day, but chances of rain
may be higher as an upper level disturbance moves across the region.

Sunday through much of next week will bring daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms as periodic upper level short wave troughs move
through the west to northwest flow aloft.

High temperatures will be generally below normal for this time of
year through mid week next week given the chances of rain and cloud
cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  82  67  85  66 /  20  20  50  40  50
Beaver OK                  65  82  67  84  67 /  90  20  60  50  50
Boise City OK              62  74  63  83  63 /  90  30  50  40  40
Borger TX                  69  83  69  85  68 /  50  20  60  50  50
Boys Ranch TX              67  81  68  87  66 /  30  20  60  50  50
Canyon TX                  67  84  67  85  66 /  20  20  40  50  50
Clarendon TX               69  86  69  85  69 /  30  20  30  40  50
Dalhart TX                 65  81  65  85  65 /  50  30  60  40  40
Guymon OK                  65  81  66  85  66 /  90  20  60  40  40
Hereford TX                66  85  68  87  66 /  20  20  40  40  50
Lipscomb TX                67  82  68  83  68 /  80  20  60  50  50
Pampa TX                   67  83  67  86  67 /  50  20  60  50  50
Shamrock TX                70  85  70  82  70 /  50  20  50  50  50
Wellington TX              72  88  72  84  71 /  30  20  40  50  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

03/36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
404 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-110915-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
404 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the panhandles. Some storms
may become severe mainly across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the
northern Texas Panhandle, with damaging winds and hail the primary
hazards. Another concern will be heavy rainfall, which may lead
to localized flooding or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles every day through mid next week. Some storms that
develop during this time period may become strong to marginally
severe, with strong wind gusts and hail the primary hazards. In
addition, the strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, which may lead to localized flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

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