Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms look possible for the AMA TAF site this
evening ahead of a cold front moving south across the region. Have
mentioned a TEMPO group there. DHT and GUY should remain rain free
through this forecast. Winds will turn more to the north and
northeast behind the cold front tonight into Sunday morning. Winds
should remain around 15 knots or less outside of thunderstorms.
VFR conditions are expected outside of the rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite trends are showing a positive tilted
surface trough extending southwest into eastern New Mexico with a
surface low in SW Kansas. This is generating some convection
upstream and downstream across eastern New Mexico. With weak
steering flow, best chances of convection will be across the
western Panhandles and southern TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings
also indicated inverted-v soundings going into the evening,
therefore if any convection gets going, strong gusty winds along
with localized heavy rain will be the main threat. Convection will
begin to wane from west to east as we go into the early morning
hours on Sunday.

Latest 05/12 model and numerical guidance show a cold front making
its way south exiting the southern TX Panhandle around 18Z Sunday.
Behind the front, winds will pick up and shift to the NE around
10-20 kts. Also, much cooler air will dive south with highs across
the area ranging from the mid to upper 70s. After a brief lull in
activity during the day on Sunday, northwest flow will return to
advect eastward high terrain convection into the western and
central Panhandles along another mid-level shortwave.

Going into next week, synoptic setup includes an elongated mid
level high pressure system W-E across the southwestern CONUS with
a zonal 250 hPa jet setting up just north of the OK Panhandle.
This will bring a series of ridge rollers SE/ESE across the region
with the best chances of precipitation being diurnal convection
which is expected just about everyday next week as the center of
the main southern stream jet max oscillates between OK/KS border.
High temperatures next week will stat below average and rebound
to near average by the end of next week.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

15/89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
348 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
348 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may move through the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles later this afternoon and evening. If storms form, a few
will have the potential to become strong, with brief gusty winds
and small hail the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles Sunday through Friday. Some storms that develop during
this time period may become strong to marginally severe, with
strong winds and hail possible. In addition, the strongest storms
will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall, which
could result in localized flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
729 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

TXZ012-017-060130-
Potter TX-Randall TX-
729 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RANDALL AND SOUTHERN
POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 729 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bushland, or 10 miles west of Amarillo, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo, Canyon, Lake Tanglewood, Mescalero Park, Bushland and
Timbercreek Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 10216 3530 10206 3547 10162 3497 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 272DEG 34KT 3520 10200

LG

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