Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
708 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, the latest round of showers and tstms appears to
be evading the terminal sites based on latest radar trends. Have
incorporated VCSH at KDHT and KAMA for a few hours this evening.
However, confidence is much lower in tstms impacting any one
terminal site this evening so have decided to omit that
particular weather element for this fcst cycle. Showers and tstms
should begin diminishing late tonight.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening with a few weak storms already forming in
the far northwest zones. Upper level analysis shows continued
northwest flow into the Panhandles as high pressure over the
southwest has not shifted as far east as previous guidance
suggested. Enhanced mid-level flow over the eastern Panhandles is
also indicated by short/medium range guidance on the back end of
a closed shortwave now over southeast KS per water vapor imagery.
This will help to increase deep shear values (mostly due to
directional shear as surface winds back to southeast) over the
eastern Panhandles to around 35 knots with around 30 knots for the
western Panhandles this evening. This combined with with surface
dew points around 60 and strong instability (SBCAPE over 2000
J/kg) will support some strong to severe multicells. Forcing will
be limited to a very subtle perturbation in the northwest flow
aloft and Theta-E convergence around SFC-850mb / weak upslope
flow in addition to old outflow boundaries left over from
yesterdays activity. Storm motion should be southeasterly with
forecast hodographs suggesting only 10-15 knot storm motion. This
may lead to some localized flooding concern with any more discrete
cells. However, CAMs suggest congealing into a broken line into
the evening as storms push into the southern Texas Panhandle, and
storm speeds will mostly likely increase as they become outflow
dominant. The tornado risk will be very low due to high LCL
heights and a relatively weak low level wind field. Boundary
induced land spouts can't be ruled out. Latest guidance suggest
storm coverage will be great around 00z with storms exiting the
Panhandles to the south/southeast by 03z-06z.

Wednesday looks to be mostly dry for the area as we finally start
to transition to more north-northeasterly flow aloft. The high
pressure over the southwest is expected to expand over the Four
Corners region with large scale troughing over the northeast
CONUS. Can't rule out a very isolated thunderstorm over the
eastern zones where better low level moisture will exist.
Otherwise, highs should be in the low to mid 90s, right around
average.

Thursday into the extended looks mostly dry with near average
temperatures. However, models show the upper high over the Four
Corners trying to shift west some over the weekend which may lead
to a brief return of northwesterly winds and slight pops mainly
for the western and northern zones. Deterministic models vary
greatly with low level moisture over the weekend period, which
will have an affect on thunderstorm potential and high
temperatures. The same can be said going into next week, although
models are fairly consistent with shifting the upper high to the
east by mid week which should lead to drier/warmer conditions and
most likely above average temperatures.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
342 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-050845-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
342 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the Panhandles. Some of these
storms may produce strong winds and large hail as we go into the
afternoon and evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday mainly for the eastern
Texas Panhandle, and then again Friday through Sunday for portions
of the Panhandles. The threat for organized severe weather will
be low, however a strong storm can't be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
723 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

TXZ008-013-050100-
Hutchinson TX-Carson TX-
723 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HUTCHINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Skellytown, or 7 miles southeast of Borger. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Areas between Borger and Skellytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 10132 3565 10139 3572 10125 3561 10108
      3557 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 322DEG 3KT 3561 10129

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
725 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TSTM WND GST     HEREFORD                34.82N 102.40W
07/04/2017  E60 MPH          DEAF SMITH         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER AND SHERIFF DEPUTY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
            HEREFORD REPORTED 55 TO 60 MPH WINDS WITH TREE LIMBS
            BROKEN OFF.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700775

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
726 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW HEREFORD           34.84N 102.42W
07/04/2017  M60 MPH          DEAF SMITH         TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700776

EA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
742 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW HEREFORD           34.84N 102.42W
07/04/2017  M61 MPH          DEAF SMITH         TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700777

EA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
746 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

TXZ001-002-006-007-050130-
Hartley TX-Sherman TX-Dallam TX-Moore TX-
746 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM...NORTHEASTERN HARTLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MOORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
near Dalhart and east of Dalhart, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dalhart and Hartley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 10255 3618 10209 3584 10199 3580 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 351DEG 13KT 3602 10242

MJG

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