Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
651 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, the latest round of showers and tstms currently
developing over ern NM and sern CO will continue moving east and
southeast this evening and tonight and will likely impact the TAF
sites. Have incorporated TEMPO groups for TSRA at all terminal
sites for later this evening and tonight.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/

DISCUSSION...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.  Main emphasis
has been placed on determining timing and coverage of
thunderstorms this evening and tonight.  Shortwave trof seen in
satellite imagery currently south of 4-corners is expected to move
steadily toward Panhandles, arriving in western sections shortly
after midnight.  Incoming shortwave expected to induce
development of low-level jet this evening, providing continued
supply of warm moist air and support for thunderstorms.  Recent
runs of CAMs support continuing our forecast of a line or broken
line of thunderstorms developing over eastern New Mexico, and
moving into western sections this evening, with isolated showers
and thunderstorms possible in eastern sections ahead of the line.
After 100 AM CDT, thunderstorm activity expected to be diminishing
across the western half of the forecast area, with eastern areas
favored for continued overnight thunderstorms.

Chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast Sunday through
Wednesday night, mainly over eastern sections where deeper and
richer moisture expected to be positioned.  Rising mid-level
heights associated with strengthening of ridge near 4-corners will
lead to northwest flow aloft transitioning to north and northeast
by Wednesday, with diminishing potential for thunderstorms.
Daily high temperatures expected to be on the high side of climo,
with maxima in the 90s.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-021100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the western
Panhandles later this evening, and become more of a line moving
across the entire Panhandles overnight tonight. Some storms could
be strong to marginally severe, producing hail up to half dollar
size and gusts around 65 MPH. Brief heavy rain will also be
possible with the storms tonight, which could lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible for various portions of the
Panhandles Sunday through Wednesday night. Some storms Sunday and
Monday could become strong to marginally severe, producing one
inch hail and 60 MPH gusts. The threat for organized severe
weather will be low Tuesday through Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency Managers and spotter groups across southwest half of the
Combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles should remain alert for
possible activation this evening and tonight.

Cockrell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

TXZ006-020100-
Hartley TX-
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HARTLEY COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Romero, or 8 miles northeast of Nara Visa, moving east northeast at
25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Romero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 10304 3598 10253 3565 10257 3562 10301
      3562 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 241DEG 19KT 3569 10298

Andrade

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