Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
410 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Not much for changes in this forecast package as the forecast is
still pretty well on track. Temps this afternoon have been
slightly warmer than yesterday with the higher temps in the west
today and cooler on the eastern side of the CWA due to clouds
hanging on longer there. The break in clouds has allowed for more
daytime heating and thus increasing the instability today. CAMs
are still disagreeing slightly on the extent of coverage for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the night. Feel
there is a decent chance for storms to develop and move across the
majority of the area overnight. Due to the increased instability
and better shear today, storms may become stronger than what we
saw yesterday; some of the storms on the western half of the area
may become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the
primary threats. We are already seeing initiation in Sherman and
Moore and expect more storms to fire up within the area or move in
from the mountains in New Mexico.

Monday will look somewhat similar to today with some of the cloud
cover lingering in the morning hours, followed by a break out of
clouds and then storms again in the late afternoon to evening.
These storms may also become strong to severe depending on how
much clouds break out, allowing for more instability to be
generated. Tuesday looks to see a warm up as winds turn more
southwesterly in the low levels and allow for downsloping winds.
As the upper level ridge moves across the central Plains, this
will be the last day for northwest flow aloft and thus the final
day for storm chances to come in from the mountains. Mid week will
see zonal flow aloft as a trough tries to move south from Canada.
This will lead to even more downsloping and warmer temps. The end
of the week will see a return of high pressure building up in the
desert southwest. This leads to a return of precip chances for the
weekend.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  82  61  87  67 /  60  40  30  10  10
Beaver OK                  60  86  63  90  71 /  40  20  30  10  20
Boise City OK              59  82  60  87  66 /  60  20  20  10  20
Borger TX                  63  86  64  89  71 /  60  30  20  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              61  86  61  89  68 /  70  40  30  10  10
Canyon TX                  60  83  61  87  67 /  60  40  30  10  10
Clarendon TX               62  82  62  86  68 /  50  40  30  10  10
Dalhart TX                 60  86  61  87  65 /  70  30  20  10  20
Guymon OK                  62  85  63  90  69 /  50  20  20  10  20
Hereford TX                59  85  61  87  67 /  70  40  30  10  10
Lipscomb TX                64  85  63  88  72 /  40  30  30  10  20
Pampa TX                   62  84  61  86  68 /  50  30  20  10  20
Shamrock TX                65  85  63  87  70 /  40  40  30  10  10
Wellington TX              67  85  64  88  71 /  40  40  30  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

15/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
419 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-261000-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
419 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible over all of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles today. Some storms across the northwestern third of the
Panhandles may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
being the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across all of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles Monday through Tuesday night. Isolated strong
to severe storms will be possible mainly in the western Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles Monday and Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible again for portions of the Panhandles on Thursday
night and Friday night through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             2 N KEYES               36.83N 102.25W
06/25/2017  E2.75 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   STORM CHASER

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON NORTH ROAD 430 NORTH OF
            KEYES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700723

14