Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Main thing for this period will be the breezy wind
conditions to start the period, but these conditions will
decrease around sunset.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Focus will be on the severe weather threat later this afternoon,
mainly eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Main threats this
afternoon and early evening include hail around 2 inches in diameter
and 60 mph wind gusts or greater. During the time period (mainly 4pm
to 9pm) of convection, confidence is pretty strong LCL heights will
be too high to warrant a decent risk for tornadoes; however, there
is a very small chance for a tornado. Did not mention this in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook because confidence was too low for
tornadoes. Beyond that, there will be several more chances for
thunderstorms, but its too early to determine severe weather chances
with high confidence. That being said, at this time it does look
like our next chance for severe weather appears to be Thursday.
Temperatures do look to be above normal for this time of year
through the extended, with the only day close to normal high temps
being Sunday and Monday. As an example, normal high temps for this
time of year at Amarillo range in the mid to upper 80s. Amarillo is
forecast beginning tomorrow to be near 100 degrees to slightly above
100 degrees through at least Saturday.

Looking into more detail for today/early evening across eastern
parts of the Texas Panhandle:

Bulk shear values will range between 40 and 55 knots with most
unstable CAPE values around 2000 to 3500 J/kg. Flow aloft combined
with dryline orientation would suggest discrete cells initially.
Given the parameters in place, strong rotating cells are possible.
Nearly all of the Convective Available Models (CAMs) are suggesting
cells will go linear later in the evening. However, Its hard to
believe this output given all the supercell components coming into
place. The CAMs might be going linear too early. I think discrete
cells will stick around a little longer and probably through at
least 01Z. By this time storms should be on their way into Oklahoma
and then becoming more linear in nature. Models are forecasting high
values of DCAPE, and this would suggest strong outflow boundary and
more interaction with other nearby storms. This is one element I
think the CAMs might be catching onto to go more linear as cells
fire on boundaries and fill in the gaps between initial cells. As
mentioned earlier, tornado threat looks small. The combination of
near storm outflow boundary interaction, 0-1km helicity values below
100 (m^2/s^2), and high LCL heights all suggest tornado threat looks
limited at this time. Given the chance for strong updrafts, the
threat for large to giant hail will be high this afternoon and early
evening. Two inch diameter hail does not seem out of the question
for eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Since we will have
rotating updrafts and high values of DCAPE, I also think strong wind
speeds of at least 60 mph will be possible.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-140545-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening
across eastern parts of the Panhandles. Severe weather is also
expected to develop, mainly across eastern parts of the Texas
Panhandle, or basically along and east of a line from Amarillo to
Perryton. Main threats include the possibility of hail around 2
inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through
Thursday night, and again Sunday night and Monday. While strong
storms are possible with just about any activity this time of
year, widespread severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed starting around 3 pm.
Main threat area will be eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle.

Guerrero

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
742 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             6 SSE ELMWOOD           36.54N 100.48W
06/13/2017  M2.00 INCH       BEAVER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700679

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
756 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 SSE WELLINGTON        34.84N 100.21W
06/13/2017  E1.00 INCH       COLLINGSWORTH      TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700680

WEBER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
800 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OKZ003-140130-
Beaver OK-
800 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BEAVER COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mocane, or near Beaver, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver, Forgan, Knowles and Mocane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3697 10001 3672 10048 3687 10061 3700 10053
      3700 10007
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 221DEG 34KT 3685 10049

Ward

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
802 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             3 W SLAPOUT             36.62N 100.17W
06/13/2017  M1.25 INCH       BEAVER             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700681

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
813 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             2 S SLAPOUT             36.59N 100.12W
06/13/2017  E1.50 INCH       BEAVER             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...EVENT

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700678

WEBER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

TXZ010-015-140215-
Hemphill TX-Wheeler TX-
848 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WHEELER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HEMPHILL COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 848 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Mobeetie, or 14 miles southeast of Miami, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Briscoe, New Mobeetie and Mobeetie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3551 10015 3546 10046 3558 10052 3575 10033
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 236DEG 22KT 3555 10044

Beat