Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Main thing for this period will be the breezy wind
conditions to start the period, but these conditions will
decrease around sunset.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Focus will be on the severe weather threat later this afternoon,
mainly eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Main threats this
afternoon and early evening include hail around 2 inches in diameter
and 60 mph wind gusts or greater. During the time period (mainly 4pm
to 9pm) of convection, confidence is pretty strong LCL heights will
be too high to warrant a decent risk for tornadoes; however, there
is a very small chance for a tornado. Did not mention this in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook because confidence was too low for
tornadoes. Beyond that, there will be several more chances for
thunderstorms, but its too early to determine severe weather chances
with high confidence. That being said, at this time it does look
like our next chance for severe weather appears to be Thursday.
Temperatures do look to be above normal for this time of year
through the extended, with the only day close to normal high temps
being Sunday and Monday. As an example, normal high temps for this
time of year at Amarillo range in the mid to upper 80s. Amarillo is
forecast beginning tomorrow to be near 100 degrees to slightly above
100 degrees through at least Saturday.

Looking into more detail for today/early evening across eastern
parts of the Texas Panhandle:

Bulk shear values will range between 40 and 55 knots with most
unstable CAPE values around 2000 to 3500 J/kg. Flow aloft combined
with dryline orientation would suggest discrete cells initially.
Given the parameters in place, strong rotating cells are possible.
Nearly all of the Convective Available Models (CAMs) are suggesting
cells will go linear later in the evening. However, Its hard to
believe this output given all the supercell components coming into
place. The CAMs might be going linear too early. I think discrete
cells will stick around a little longer and probably through at
least 01Z. By this time storms should be on their way into Oklahoma
and then becoming more linear in nature. Models are forecasting high
values of DCAPE, and this would suggest strong outflow boundary and
more interaction with other nearby storms. This is one element I
think the CAMs might be catching onto to go more linear as cells
fire on boundaries and fill in the gaps between initial cells. As
mentioned earlier, tornado threat looks small. The combination of
near storm outflow boundary interaction, 0-1km helicity values below
100 (m^2/s^2), and high LCL heights all suggest tornado threat looks
limited at this time. Given the chance for strong updrafts, the
threat for large to giant hail will be high this afternoon and early
evening. Two inch diameter hail does not seem out of the question
for eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle. Since we will have
rotating updrafts and high values of DCAPE, I also think strong wind
speeds of at least 60 mph will be possible.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-140545-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening
across eastern parts of the Panhandles. Severe weather is also
expected to develop, mainly across eastern parts of the Texas
Panhandle, or basically along and east of a line from Amarillo to
Perryton. Main threats include the possibility of hail around 2
inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through
Thursday night, and again Sunday night and Monday. While strong
storms are possible with just about any activity this time of
year, widespread severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed starting around 3 pm.
Main threat area will be eastern parts of the Texas Panhandle.

Guerrero

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