Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
213 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will remain in place this afternoon
through tonight.  This will keep the threat for additional showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms
increase tonight into Saturday along and ahead of a cold front. A
cooler and drier air mass is expected for the remainder of the
weekend before another chance for wet weather arrives for early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1048 AM EDT...The forecast area remains in a warm and
humid air mass with sfc dewpts in the 60s to around 70F in a few
locations. The latest KENX radar trends show a small batch of
showers/t-storms have drifted into the southeast Catskills/Mid-
Hudson valley/NW CT. Hard to find a clear focus for the
showers/t-storms, but an outflow boundary may have moved into
region from the morning convection neat New York City. Some
rainfall rates in the 0.25-0.50"/hr range noted in the NY
Mesonet. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis has MLCAPEs of around 500 J/kg
in the area with about 20 kt of effective bulk shear. We expect
these storms to be loosely organized, and not a great severe
threat. We have emphasized the heavy rain threat with PWATs
getting close to 1.50-1.70" range south and east of KALB. The
12Z KALB sounding had a PWAT of 1.43" with an SBCAPE of 650
J/kg. We retooled the POPS in the forecast grids with a emphasis
of prefrontal differential heating thunderstorms in the
afternoon. The better threat comes later in the afternoon west
of the forecast area closer to the cold front and then perhaps a
prefrontal sfc trough. Best instability this afternoon is west
of the Hudson River Valley based on the 12Z NAM with SBCAPEs of
1000-1500 J/kg with increasing 0-6 km bulk shear to around 30
kts. The Slight Risk area grazing the southern Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley still looks good. The question will be how
much instability is left to tap into with the approaching the
band of convection the HRRR/NAM 3-km mesoscale models are
hinting at.

Highs once again will be in the lower to mid 80s with a few
spotty upper 80s, and upper 70s to lower 80s across the
mountains/hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a 'marginal
risk' of severe weather from near the Hudson River and points
westward with the 'slight risk' line running through the
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. As potent August upper
low and short wave across the upper Great Lakes approaches, this
will send a cold front eastward tonight. The nocturnal timing
of this feature suggests the best severe potential will be west
of the Hudson, yet overall shear profiles do increase overnight
and mid level instability will remain in place so can not
completely rule out a couple severe events overnight.
Regardless, a line of convection will accompany this cold front
as this feature tracks across the entire region from west to
east through Saturday morning. Now any slight timing differences
with this frontal movement will have an impact to the expected
weather on Saturday. A round of strong to potential severe
thunderstorms may develop east of the Hudson through the early
afternoon hours as instability increases once again. Overnight
lows will generally be in the 60s with highs Saturday close to
80F in the valley areas with mostly 70s expected.

As brisk and somewhat drier air advects in the region in the
wake of frontal passage later Saturday into Saturday night,
delta t/s off Lake Ontario increase. As deep cyclonic flow will
be in place, lake effect rain showers may develop downwind of
Lake Ontario as delta t/s climb close to 20c. Meanwhile, mixing
layer heights climb toward 5000 feet through Saturday where
20-25kts of winds reside before crashing Saturday night.
Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with some upper 40s expected
across the higher terrain as H850 temperatures fall back into
the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be in control for Sunday with a partly to
mostly sunny sky. Temps aloft will be cool for early August to start
the day, but should be warming up through the day.  Still, max temps
will be a little below normal for August, with mid to upper 70s for
most valley areas, along with comfortable levels of humidity.

With a fast flow in place aloft, the weather will quickly turn
unsettled once again for the start of the upcoming week.  An area of
low pressure will be passing by to the south of the region for
Monday and this system will be aided by a sharp upper level trough
and strong jet streak aloft. A period of steady rain looks to fall
beginning as early as late Sunday night and continuing through the
day on Monday and into Monday evening.  Precip will be tapering off
Monday night to showers/areas of drizzle, although some showers will
likely linger even into Tuesday thanks to the passing upper level
trough. The heaviest/steadiest rainfall will be for southern parts
of the area.  While northern areas may only see about a half inch of
rain, upslope areas of the Catskills and other locations close to
the low track may see around two inches of rainfall.  With our area
on the cooler, stratiform rainfall side of the storm, rainfall rates
shouldn't be too high, so widespread flash flooding is not
anticipated.  With the clouds/precip, temps will be held down on
Monday and most areas will only see highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Behind the departing storm, clouds should finally break for some sun
by Tuesday afternoon, but highs will only reach into the low to mid
70s.

Another area of high pressure should allow for a period of dry
weather for the middle of the week, with temperatures still a little
below normal.  Wednesday should feature a good amount of sunshine
with highs in the 70s, and Thursday looks dry for most spots with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Another frontal system looks to approach for late in the week, along
with increasing humidity levels thanks to a moist, southerly flow
expected to be in place.  There will be a chance for showers and
possible thunderstorms for Thursday night into Friday, with highs on
Friday once again the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prefrontal showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon across eastern NY and western New England. The cold
front will move slowly across the region tonight into tomorrow
morning.

VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening. Brief reductions to MVFR/IFR
levels are possible in any thunderstorms. KPOU/KPSF have the
best chance between 18Z-22Z, where KALB/KGFL also have TEMP0
groups out from 20Z to 00Z/FRI.

The cold front approaches this evening, and PROB30 groups were
used in the 05Z to 12Z time frame to address additional
thunderstorms. Lowering cigs/vsbys are possible in the bands of
showers and embedded thunderstorms with widespread MVFR
conditions developing. Some IFR conditions are possible in terms
of cigs at KPSF. The band of showers and thunderstorms should
move east of the terminals in the late morning.

Southerly winds of 8 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 to 25 kts
especially at KALB will continue this afternoon. The winds will
be from the south at 5 to 10 kts tonight, and veer to the
southwest at 10 to 15 kts in the late morning with some gusts in
the 20 to 25 kt range possible.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail through
remainder of this week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible by this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be a bit breezy
with southerly winds possibly gusting to around 20-25 mph,
mainly valley locations. RH values will drop into the 50-65
percent range.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some containing
heavy rainfall, are expected tonight into Saturday morning as a
cold front moves across the region from west to east. Dry
weather will build in for later Saturday afternoon and
continuing into Sunday. Winds will turn westerly and be a bit
gusty to around 20 mph. RH values Sunday will fall into the 40
to 55 percent range as a much drier airmass builds in.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with limited coverage mitigating heavy rainfall threat.

However, widespread showers and thunderstorms, some containing
heavy rainfall, are expected Friday night into Saturday morning
as a cold front moves east across the region. Localized ponding
of water in low lying/poor drainage and urban areas will be
possible, but progressive nature of the system will limit the
flooding threat.

Dry weather will build in for later Saturday afternoon and
Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Thompson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
1241 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-051100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
1241 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York excluding the western
Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley, and for southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches the region. Damaging wind gusts would be the greatest
potential hazard from these thunderstorms, along with frequent cloud
to ground lightning strikes. Brief heavy rainfall will accompany any
thunderstorm that could lead to ponding of water in low lying, poor
drainage and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The marginal risk for severe thunderstorms continues through Saturday
morning, as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging wind gusts
would be the greatest potential hazard from these thunderstorms, along
with frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall could lead to ponding of
water in low lying, poor drainage and urban areas into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ032-033-038>040-082-051100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Fulton-
1241 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley of east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches and moves across the region late this afternoon into
tonight. Damaging wind gusts would be the greatest potential hazard
from these thunderstorms, along with frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes.

Brief heavy rainfall will accompany any thunderstorm that could lead
to ponding of water in low lying, poor drainage and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The slight risk for severe thunderstorms continues through early
Saturday morning, as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging
wind gusts would be the greatest potential hazard from these
thunderstorms, along with frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall could lead to ponding of water in
low lying, poor drainage and urban areas into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

CTZ001-MAZ025-042000-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL LITCHFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES...

At 329 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Canaan, or 11
miles southeast of Great Barrington, moving northeast at 25 mph.

This storm will be near...
  Sandisfield around 350 PM EDT.
  Otis around 400 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sodom, East Sheffield,
Hartsville, Konkapot, North Colebrook, Gomorrah, New Boston, North
Otis, Montville and Mill River.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4201 7302 4195 7324 4208 7339 4228 7309
      4221 7302 4215 7303 4215 7307 4212 7306
      4211 7307 4209 7307 4207 7306 4204 7306
      4204 7301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 237DEG 20KT 4204 7326

ROK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE LINCOLN PARK      41.96N  73.99W
08/04/2017                   ULSTER             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO LARGE LIMBS DOWN ABOUT ONE FOOT IN DIAMETER AT
            ROUTE 9W AND BOICES LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1704020

DBT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
342 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

NYZ058-059-042030-
Eastern Greene-Western Greene-
342 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GREENE COUNTY...

At 342 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near North-South
Lake Campground, or 7 miles west of Catskill, moving north at 20 mph.

this storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Eastern Greene and northeastern Western Greene Counties, including
the following locations: East Durham, Norton Hill, Greenville Center,
West Coxsackie, Round Top, Result, Haines Falls, Earlton, Sanfords
Corners and Limestreet.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4217 7394 4219 7410 4242 7412 4239 7379
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 189DEG 18KT 4223 7401

ROK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
353 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLOVERSVILLE            43.05N  74.35W
08/04/2017                   FULTON             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1704021

JEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E CRANBERRY CREEK     43.15N  74.19W
08/04/2017                   FULTON             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED OVER GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE.
            CONFIRMED BY VIDEO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1704022

JEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
410 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

NYZ033-039-041-082-042045-
Southern Fulton-Hamilton-Northern Fulton-Northern Saratoga-
410 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
NORTHWESTERN SARATOGA AND EASTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

At 409 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cranberry
Creek, or 8 miles northeast of Gloversville, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Winds of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Northampton Beach Public Campground around 420 PM EDT.
  Northville around 425 PM EDT.
  Edinburg around 435 PM EDT.
  Day Center around 445 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Fairchilds Corners,
Fish House, Munsonville, Tenantville, Sweets Crossing, Benedict,
Pinnacle, Glenwild, Maple Grove and Broadalbin Junction.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4337 7416 4338 7405 4322 7385 4311 7408
      4312 7412 4309 7412 4302 7426 4316 7442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 228DEG 22KT 4315 7426

TAW