Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and a strong upper level disturbance will
bring showers and isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms to the
region today.  A cooler and drier air mass will build into eastern
New York and western New England tonight from the Midwest. High
pressure will yield fair, dry, and less humid weather to close the
weekend, as another cold front will bring isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms back into the region to open the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One cluster of storms has exited with just a few isolated
reports of a few tree limbs and a couple of small trees down.
New convection developing in central and northern NY but also
the tail of the old convection is in the eastern Catskills and
Helderbergs. This trailing shower and storm activity is expected
to strengthen as it tracks into areas that have not seen any
storms yet today and where it is most unstable, in the eastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT.

Based on trends and mesoscale models, any thunderstorms that
could reach toward severe criteria would be quite scattered at
best. The activity looks to be timed to exit into central,
eastern and southern New England by late afternoon. Quite a bit
of sunshine outside of the showers and storms, so temperatures
should be able to warm during the periods of sun, again
contributing to the instability over the region.

Just some minor adjustments to the forecast through this
afternoon and will be keeping a close eye on the radar for
potential severe thunderstorms. Thanks to surrounding offices
and SPC for earlier coordination.

Highs today will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the valley
areas, with mid 60s to mid 70s over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...the showers dwindle over the forecast area especially
over the southern Adirondacks, and southern Greens with the
passage of the short-wave. High pressure will begin to build in
from the Midwest. Dewpoints fall back into the upper 40s to 50s
across the region. Some patchy fog may form where the winds
decouple, and with clearing skies and recent wet ground. Lows
will be in the 50s with a few upper 40s over the eastern
Catskills and southern Adirondacks.

Sunday...Cyclonic flow persists over the region with a weak
disturbance increasing clouds over the northern zones. There
maybe and isolated shower or sprinkle over the southern
Adirondacks. High pressure will be building in from the Ohio
Valley with fair and less humid conditions over the entire
region. Highs will be a shade below normal with mid 70s to
around 80F in the valleys, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the
mountains. It will be breezy with west to northwest winds of 10
to 15 mph.

Sunday night into Monday...Another cold front in the cyclonic
flow with the broad upper level trough over southeastern Canada
and the Northeast will approach the region. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible north and west of the Capital
Region Sunday night. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF are not in good agreement
on the timing of the front sagging southward on Monday. The
moisture convergence looks weak with the boundary on the
NAM/GFS, and the sfc ridge may hang on south of the region most
of the day.  There is a slight to low chance of a shower or
isolated thunderstorm across the forecast area. The better
synoptic forcing is over the northern zones with the boundary,
and some short-wave energy pivoting around the upper low. Lows
will be cool in the 50s with highs in the 70s to lower 80s with
a few mid 80s over the mid-Hudson Valley.

Monday night...The cold front may become stationary over the
region, and then lift back northward as a warm front, as a
short-wave approaches from the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes
Region. A chance of showers and a slight chc of thunderstorms
was kept in the forecast with temps a bit milder in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long-term period will be active with multiple short waves
rotating around a long wave trough with the exception of brief
ridging on Wednesday.

Tuesday-Wednesday morning...A cold front will push through the area
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will bring chances for showers
and thunderstorms to the area. There is the potential for some of
these storms to become strong Tuesday afternoon with ample
CAPE/LIs/TTs suggested by the GFS/ECMWF. However, mid level lapse
rates are not very steep, on the order of 5-6.5 deg C/km being
suggested by the GFS and ECMWF.

Wednesday through Saturday night...Following the frontal passage,
brief ridging and cooler/less humid air builds into the region. This
should result in dry conditions with seasonable temperatures
Wednesday afternoon. This reprieve from the wet weather appears to
be short-lived as pieces of upper energy pass through the area
Thursday through Saturday night, bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week and into
the weekend.

Temperatures throughout the period will be seasonable with highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region but so
scattered indicating VCSH until clear evidence a thunderstorm
will affect the TAF sites when amendments would be issued.
Ceilings and visibilities are VFR outside of the showers and
storms but brief 15-30 minutes bursts of rain and wind would
bring conditions down to the MVFR/IFR range. So, again will
amend if a thunderstorm is clearly tracking to the TAF sites.

The scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
exit after about 00Z-02Z when just scattered clouds above 3000
feet should prevail most of the night. Light winds and ground
moisture could contribute to some fog toward daybreak and
acknowledging some potential for fog between 06Z-12Z. After 12Z,
VFR conditions return with just scattered clouds expected later
in the morning and early afternoon.

Winds will be light from the southwest at less than 8 KT
through this afternoon but gusty in thunderstorms, perhaps up to
35 Kt. Winds will then become west and increase to 8-12 KT
after the cold front passes late this afternoon and evening,
with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Winds become light at less
than 6 Kt tonight, then become southwest to west at 10 to 15 Kt
Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front and a strong upper level disturbance will
bring showers and isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms to the
region today.  A cooler and drier air mass will build into eastern
New York and western New England tonight from the Midwest. High
pressure will yield fair, dry, and less humid weather to close the
weekend, as another cold front will bring isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms back into the region for Monday.

The RH values will only lower to 50 to 75 percent this
afternoon, and then recover 85 to 100 percent tonight. In the
drier air mass, the RH values will drop to 35 to 55 percent on
Sunday.

South to southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph this morning will shift
into the west to northwest, and increase to 10-20 mph by the
afternoon. The winds will be west at 5 mph or less tonight, and
then increase from the west at 5 to 15 mph on Sunday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread problems are expected on the main stem rivers, but
some locally heavy rainfall is possible today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today associated
with a cold front and an upper level disturbance passing across
the region. Additional areal rainfall amounts are expected to
be generally between the one tenth and one half inch range
through today, although locally higher amounts could occur,
especially where any brief training and/or backbuilding of
showers/storms materialize. This could lead to ponding of water
in low lying, poor drainage and urban areas and also an isolated
flash flood.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday night and Sunday,
with the threat for additional isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms increasing again Monday into Monday night
with variable rainfall amounts depending on where any
thunderstorms occur.

A series of disturbances and including a cold front will bring
greater chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with
some locally heavy rainfall possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL/Wasula

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-
084-VTZ013>015-091100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, the Lake George Saratoga Region, the eastern
Mohawk Valley, the Capital District, Mid Hudson Valley and the Taconics
of east central New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon ahead
of a cold front and an upper level disturbance. The main threat from
these thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts and large hail one
inch in diameter or greater. The thunderstorms will move from the
west to east at 30 to 35 mph.

In addition, locally heavy downpours could lead to ponding of water
in low lying, poor drainage and urban areas. An isolated flash flood
is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed later this afternoon.

NYZ032-033-038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082-091100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Western Albany-
Western Greene-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
127 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Adirondacks,
western and central Mohawk Valley, the Schoharie Valley, Helderbergs and
eastern Catskills of east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of the
thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Some
ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1247 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NYZ038-081745-
Southern Herkimer-
1247 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...

At 1246 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cedarville, or
near Ilion, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Herkimer around 1250 PM EDT.
  Jordanville around 100 PM EDT.
  Little Falls around 110 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Birmingham Corners,
Cullen, Spinnerville, Cedarville Station, Corrado Corners,
Starkville, North Ilion, South Columbia, East Winfield and Warren.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4304 7513 4305 7476 4304 7476 4303 7474
      4299 7474 4287 7476 4290 7488 4284 7489
      4282 7491 4291 7510 4286 7514 4286 7515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 276DEG 20KT 4295 7503

BGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
108 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NYZ032-033-081815-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
108 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON
AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 107 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles south of Wawbeek to 9 miles west
of Big Moose. Movement was east at 15 mph.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northern
Northern Herkimer and northwestern Hamilton Counties, including the
following locations: Hasbroucks, Nehasane, Russian Lake, Little
Rapids, Beaver River, Moshier Falls, Quaker Beach, Catlin Lake,
Deerland and Partlow.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4398 7426 4378 7482 4382 7514 4388 7514
      4389 7512 4410 7451 4412 7428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 272DEG 11KT 4414 7431 4387 7509

BGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NYZ038>040-081800-
Southern Fulton-Southern Herkimer-Montgomery-
117 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FULTON...
SOUTHEASTERN HERKIMER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 117 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fort Plain, or
7 miles west of Canajoharie, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Fort Plain around 125 PM EDT.
  Ames around 130 PM EDT.
  Canajoharie and Ephratah around 135 PM EDT.
  Fonda around 155 PM EDT.
  Fort Johnson and Tribes Hill around 200 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Charleston, Cook
Corners, Fultonville, Church Corners, Rockwell Corners, Flat Creek,
Young Corners, Market Corners, Mindenville and Davys Corners.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4303 7483 4300 7410 4290 7408 4282 7425
      4280 7426 4278 7429 4278 7439 4280 7453
      4282 7458 4289 7485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 277DEG 24KT 4293 7472

BGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NYZ032-033-081845-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAMILTON AND
CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTIES...

At 138 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Big Moose to 7 miles northeast of
Boonville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Old Forge and Alger Island Public Campground around 145 PM EDT.
  Inlet, Eagle Bay and Limekiln Lake Campground around 150 PM EDT.
  Eighth Lake Campground, Brown Tract Pond Campground and Nicks Lake
  Campground around 155 PM EDT.
  Raquette Lake and Golden Beach Campground around 200 PM EDT.
  Lake Durant Campground and Lewey Lake Campground around 215 PM
  EDT.
  Indian Lake around 225 PM EDT.
  Speculator around 240 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Eagle Nest, Atwell,
Perkins Clearing, Rudeston, West Canada Lakes, Minnehaha, Thendara,
Carter Station, First Lake and Herkimer Landing.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

LAT...LON 4379 7507 4378 7480 4398 7426 4397 7425
      4392 7434 4381 7422 4383 7415 4381 7412
      4380 7405 4374 7406 4373 7421 4364 7420
      4342 7452 4349 7510 4372 7512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 274DEG 40KT 4379 7495 4357 7526

BGM