Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
740 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to push
eastward across much of the region, exiting western New England by
around midnight. The storms developed well ahead of a cold front
approaching from the upper Great Lakes. The cold front will push
through on Friday, ushering in drier, cooler and breezy conditions.
Sunny and more seasonable conditions are expected on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 11 pm for
the Western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Lake George Saratoga
Region, Capital District, Schoharie Valley, and Southern
Vermont...

As of 740 PM EDT, Showers and thunderstorms have consolidated
along a line extending from around Glens Falls south and west to
just about the Capital District through Schoharie county. Most
of the discrete cells have congealed into this line. Earlier
most of the severe reports were large hail quarter to half-
dollar size, but the event is transitioning to more of a wind
event, as there are several mini-bows and linear structures.
Convection will continue to push eastward across the southeast
half of the region through late evening.

The severe threat should start to diminish later this evening
as instability wanes, so the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch
should not need to be expanded to areas south and east of the
Capital District, including the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills
although showers and storms will move through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be tracking through the forecast area on Friday
from northwest to southeast. However, it will have little
moisture to work with, so have included just slight chance PoPs.
NAM forecast soundings suggest modest instability developing
south of the Capital District, but due to limited moisture have
not included TS in the forecast. Could be a sneaky warm day for
areas south of the Capital District where the front will not
pass until later in the day, as 850 mb temps are still in the
low teens by midday. From the Capital District northward, temps
may actually fall in the afternoon as cold air advection
develops. It will be a good airmass change as Canadian high
pressure noses in late Friday into Friday night. 850 mb temps
drop to around 5C. With mostly clear skies, lows will be back
toward seasonal normals. A quiet, clear day is expected Saturday
under high pressure with highs near seasonal values. Clouds may
increase slightly late Saturday night ahead of the next system,
but dry weather is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Sunday with high pressure retreating off
the New England coast, so the day will start out cool and dry.
However, clouds will increase through the day, as a frontal system
approaches from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. A southerly
flow should allow for temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower
70s. Will mention slight to low chance pops north and west of the
Capital District late in the day.

Rain chances will then gradually increase Sunday night into Monday
morning ahead of the system's cold front. Models indicating fairly
good forcing so will mention likely pops. Due to some weak elevated
instability forecast, will continue mention of isolated thunder
during the day Monday. Rainfall could exceed a half inch, but too
early to pinpoint exact amounts. There are some timing differences
when rain ends, with the GFS slower than the ECMWF which would also
have implications for rainfall amounts.

A small ridge of high pressure will then build in Monday night, with
drying conditions. Dry weather should persist into Tuesday, but will
mention just a slight chance of showers due to an approaching upper
level low.

Then, there are significant timing/placement differences with a deep
upper low which will potentially become cut-off approaching from the
Midwest/South. This system looks to potentially move across our
region starting as early as Tuesday night, but more likely Wednesday
into Thursday. The ECMWF is showing a deeper and slower cut-off
upper low, which would delay rain until Thursday. However, the GFS
is more progressive with more rain for Wednesday than Thursday. Will
broadbrush high chance pops during this time for now, with plenty of
time to sort out details. Temperatures will depend on when rainfall
occurs, but look to generally be near normal through much of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
move from northwest to southeast across the area through around
04Z. Storms moving through KGFL as of 2330Z, and will move
through KALB between 00Z-02Z, KPSF between 01Z-03Z, and KPOU
between 02Z-04Z. Wind gusts of 30-40 kt along with reduction to
MVFR or IFR will occur with the thunderstorms. Chances for
thunderstorms will decrease after midnight, with still a few
showers possible along the cold front as it moves through.

VFR conditions will prevail on Friday, with varying cloud
coverage behind the cold front. Skies will tend to clear later
in the day as drier air works in.

Winds this evening will be west-southwest around 10-15 kt with
gusts around 20 kt, decreasing to 5-10 kt overnight. Winds
Friday will shift to the northwest behind the cold front and
increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty southwest winds and low RH values of 25 to 35 percent will
continue early this afternoon under a hot airmass. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
into the evening; however, not all areas will receive rain and
heavy rainfall is not expected. Cooler and relatively moister
conditions will be in place on Friday as a cold front passes and
high pressure tries to build in. Somewhat breezy conditions will
develop once again with west-northwesterly gusts of 25 to 30 mph
possible. It will be cooler still and drier on Saturday with
light winds under high pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
into this evening. Basin average amounts are expected to be a
half inch or less. Aside from a few isolated showers Friday, dry
weather is expected through Saturday and Sunday. The next chance
of widespread rainfall is expected Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record heat occurred once again today:

Today's highs as of 4 pm, (record highs in parenthesis):
Albany 94* (94 in 1962)
Glens Falls** 92 (89 in 1962)
Poughkeepsie 93 (96 in 1962)

**Record set today
*Record tied today

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thompson/JPV
NEAR TERM...Thompson/JPV
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson
CLIMATE...Thompson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
352 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084-VTZ013>015-191100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
352 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western and southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie
Valley, Capital District and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-191100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-
352 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and in New York east central and southeastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and central and southern Taconics.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening well
ahead of a cold front approaching from the upper Great Lakes. There
is a Marginal Risk a few of the storms may become severe, with the
potential to produce damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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