Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Albany, NY

599 
WGUS61 KALY 181940
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-191030-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0002.170619T1600Z-170620T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, 
and Bellows Falls
340 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, 
  New York, and southern Vermont, including the following areas, 
  in northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern 
  Litchfield. In western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and 
  Southern Berkshire. In New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern 
  Columbia, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Greene, Eastern 
  Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Eastern Ulster, Montgomery, 
  Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Northern Warren, Northern 
  Washington, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, 
  Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, 
  Western Albany, Western Columbia, Western Dutchess, Western 
  Greene, Western Rensselaer, Western Schenectady, and Western 
  Ulster. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham, and 
  Western Windham. 

* From Monday afternoon through late Monday night

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms with areas of torrential 
  rainfall are expected to overspread the region during the 
  afternoon to evening hours on Monday. The threat for heavy 
  rainfall could continue well into the overnight hours. 

* Localized rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches an hour are 
  possible where persistent heavy rainfall occurs or where 
  thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same areas. This will 
  result in the potential for flash flooding, especially in 
  urban and poor drainage areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

365 
WGUS61 KALY 190755
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017


CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-192200-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0002.170619T1600Z-170620T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, 
and Bellows Falls
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, 
  New York, and southern Vermont, including the following areas, 
  in northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern 
  Litchfield. In western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and 
  Southern Berkshire. In New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern 
  Columbia, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Greene, Eastern 
  Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Eastern Ulster, Montgomery, 
  Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Northern Warren, Northern 
  Washington, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, 
  Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, 
  Western Albany, Western Columbia, Western Dutchess, Western 
  Greene, Western Rensselaer, Western Schenectady, and Western 
  Ulster. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham, and 
  Western Windham. 

* From noon EDT today through late tonight

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms with areas of torrential
  rainfall are expected to overspread the region this afternoon
  and evening. The threat for heavy rainfall could continue well 
  into the overnight hours.
 
* A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is likely with localized
  amounts of 2 to 4 inches. Localized rainfall rates in excess of
  2 inches an hour are possible where persistent heavy rainfall 
  occurs or where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same 
  areas. This will result in the potential for flash flooding, 
  especially in urban and poor drainage areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

610 
WGUS61 KALY 192011
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
411 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017


CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-200415-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170620T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, 
and Bellows Falls
411 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, 
  New York, and southern Vermont, including the following areas, 
  in northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern 
  Litchfield. In western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and 
  Southern Berkshire. In New York, Eastern Albany, Eastern 
  Columbia, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern Greene, Eastern 
  Rensselaer, Eastern Schenectady, Eastern Ulster, Montgomery, 
  Northern Fulton, Northern Saratoga, Northern Warren, Northern 
  Washington, Schoharie, Southeast Warren, Southern Fulton, 
  Southern Herkimer, Southern Saratoga, Southern Washington, 
  Western Albany, Western Columbia, Western Dutchess, Western 
  Greene, Western Rensselaer, Western Schenectady, and Western 
  Ulster. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern Windham, and 
  Western Windham. 

* Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms with areas of torrential
  rainfall will continue this afternoon and evening. The threat
  for heavy rainfall could continue into the overnight hours.
  

* A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is likely with localized
  amounts of 2 to 4 inches. Localized rainfall rates in excess of
  2 inches an hour are possible in thunderstorms. This will 
  result in the potential for flash flooding, especially in urban 
  and poor drainage areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

601 
WGUS61 KALY 192248
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
648 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017


NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-200000-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170620T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
Including the cities of Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, 
Frankfort, Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, 
Saratoga Lake, Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, 
North Creek, North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, 
Whitehall, Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, 
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, 
Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, 
Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, 
Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, 
Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, 
Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, 
Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, 
Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, 
Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, 
Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, 
Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, 
West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, Cambridge, 
Greenwich, Middle Falls, and North Easton
648 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central New York and
eastern New York has been cancelled. The heavy rain from
thunderstorms that prompted this flood watch has moved east of the
area.

$$

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-200700-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170620T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, 
Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, 
West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
648 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, 
  and southern Vermont, including the following areas, in 
  northwestern Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern 
  Litchfield. In western Massachusetts, Northern Berkshire and 
  Southern Berkshire. In southern Vermont, Bennington, Eastern 
  Windham, and Western Windham. 

* Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms with areas of heavy rainfall
  are possible this evening into the overnight. 

* An additional half inch or less of rain is forecast overnight
  but some streams continue to rise and additional flooding is
  possible from earlier rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

650 
WGUS61 KALY 200148
FFAALY

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albany NY
948 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-200300-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170620T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, 
Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, 
West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
948 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, and southern Vermont has been cancelled.
Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible overnight; however, they are not expected to result in
additional flooding. Though the threat for flash flooding has
ended, travelers should be alert for ponding of water in low-lying
areas. Flooded roadways can be difficult to see at night. If you
encounter a flooded roadway, Turn Around, Don't Drown.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
128 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and muggy conditions are expected for Fathers Day
with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly from the
afternoon onward. More widespread rainfall, heavy at times, along
with strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into
Monday night, as a slow moving frontal boundary gradually pushes
east across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1250 AM EDT, Main chance was to remove pops for the rest
of the night with regional radar showing a paucity of shower
activity. Added patchy fog for areas south and east of Albany,
although it is uncertain how much fog will develop due to low
stratus clouds moving in as well.

It will remain warm and humid overnight, with low temperatures only
falling into the mid/upper 60s in many areas, except for perhaps
some lower/mid 60s in isolated areas of the Adirondacks and
Berkshires.

For Sunday, after some early low clouds and possible patchy drizzle,
a slight veering in the low level flow should allow for breaks in
the clouds to develop a bit earlier than Saturday, first for areas
across the Mohawk Valley/southwest Adirondacks, then areas farther S
and E by midday.

There should be more significant clearing for the afternoon hours,
with dewpoints likely surging into the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the region. Although overall forcing looks to remain weak through
the day, there could be some subtle differential heating boundaries
remaining from earlier clouds to initiate at least isolated, pulse-
type thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon hours. This
potential looks greatest for areas mainly N and W of Albany, where
surface heating should be more robust. Farther south and east, model
soundings suggest there could be some low level capping persisting
from a slightly marine modified air mass which may inhibit
convection through the afternoon. Have generally included isolated
thunderstorms for most areas in the afternoon, with slightly greater
chances across the Mohawk Valley region and southwest Adirondacks
where less capping and better heating is expected.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms across far NW areas for late Sunday afternoon and
night. There could be some isolated damaging wind gusts with more
robust storms that develop, with a slightly better chance possible
after sunset in this region if any more organized convection
develops to our west and reaches the western Mohawk
Valley/Adirondacks after sunset.

Sunday highs should reach the mid/upper 80s for most valley areas
and lower 80s across higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
continues to slowly move east Sunday night. Convection may not
be severe by late evening/overnight, however there will be
enough instability and deep moisture to continue the threat for
mainly isolated flash flooding. PWATS increase across the region
to overnight to 1.5 to 2 inches. It will be another warm and
muggy night, as we will be entrenched in the humid air mass.
Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Monday is expected to be a very active day across much of the
region, both in terms of potential for severe weather and flash
flooding. Much of the are has been placed by SPC in a Slight to
Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. A slow-moving cold
front will creep eastward across the area Monday into Monday
night, interacting with the warm and very humid air mass in
place. Should sufficient heating occur, MLMUCAPE values could
be in the 2000-3000 J/Kg range, along with increasing 0-6 km
bulk shear of between 30-45 kts. PWATs forecast to reach around
2.00 inches with some areas slightly over, which is around the
99th percentile for the date at Albany. Concerning parameters
for both severe storms and flash flooding, the main severe
threat should be damaging wind gusts, with much less of a hail
threat due to very high warm cloud depths around 12 kft. Will
mention these threats in the HWO. Timing of the boundary is
still somewhat in question, but should come into better focus as
Monday approaches. The severe and flash flood threat could
linger well into Monday night depending on the movement/speed of
the boundary. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s
with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

On Tuesday, the forecast area will be in the wake of the cold
front, but with the upper level trough and associated vort axis
rotating through the region expect some scattered showers to
linger. It will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday/Thursday...A brief shortwave will progress through the
region on Wednesday providing just enough dynamics for a chance of
showers and possibly a rumble of thunder. Upper level heights begin
to rise early Thursday but with another low pressure system
approaching from the west I can't rule out a possible shower in our
western counties. Highs will be in the upper 70s/low 80s South of
the Capital Region and in the mid 70s to the North. Lows will be in
the 50s both nights.

Friday/Saturday...A more organized upper system along with
increasing warm advection may support better coverage of clouds,
showers and thunderstorms Friday. GFS and ECMWF differ significantly
on timing and intensity of the developing low so confidence for
showers/thunderstorms is low but leaning towards to the ECMWF
solution of more organization. On Saturday, a weak backdoor front
looks to swing through the region giving us another chance for
showers. Highs in the upper 70s/low 80s South of Albany and in the
mid 70s North of Albany Friday and Saturday. Lows will be in the
low to mid 60s for most of the region both nights.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low clouds have spread north and northwest across the region due
moisture off the ocean. Low level flow should continue to be
from the south and southeast through this morning and based on
upstream conditions in southern NY and SW New England, ceilings
will gradually lower through daybreak.

So, ceilings at KALB and KGFL around 1500 feet should lower to
below 1000 feet by 09Z-10Z. Ceilings at KPOU and KPSF should
stay below 1000 feet. Visibilities just south and west of KPOU
are lowering as well. So, indicating some visibilities down to
around 3 SM at KPOU and KPSF through at least 11Z. Visibilities
likely to stay in the VFR range as KALB and KGFL.

After 13Z-16Z, ceilings and visibilities should rise to the VFR
range. Although at KPOU and KPSF it could take to 16Z-18Z
depending on how much winds aloft can mix out the clouds. VFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected this afternoon and
evening but some showers and isolated thunderstorms may begin to
approach after 02Z-04Z and will include VCSH.

Winds will be south to southeast at 10 Kt or less through mid
morning. Winds expected to be south 10 to 15 Kt mid morning
through afternoon with some gusts around 20 Kt. South winds
diminish to around 10 Kt this evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer and muggy conditions are expected for Fathers Day with a
continued chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly from the
afternoon onward. More widespread rainfall, heavy at times,
along with strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday
night into Monday night, as a slow moving frontal boundary
gradually pushes east across the region.

Relative humidity values will recover to 90 to 100 percent
tonight, drop to 55 to 70 percent on Sunday, recover to 90 to
100 percent once again Sunday night, and only fall to 70 to 85
percent on Monday.

Winds today through tonight will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph
tonight through Sunday night and then become southwest at 5 to
10 mph on Monday. Of course any winds with thunderstorms will be
considerably greater in magnitude and variable in direction

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A wet pattern expected to set up through much of the upcoming week,
with the potential for some hydro issue by Sunday night into Monday.

Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
Sunday afternoon. Some storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon, but widespread storms are not
expected.

The main period of concern is Sunday night through Monday night, as
a slow moving frontal boundary moves across the region, accompanied
by a very moist and humid air mass. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms with downpours are expected during this time, which
could lead to some flash flooding where heavy rainfall is most
persistent or where thunderstorm repeatedly move across the same
areas. Will continue to watch for potential flash flooding and
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. It is possible that a
flash flood watch will be issued at some point, but at this time it
is unclear to pinpoint areas that will receive the heaviest
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGFL airport observation continues to experience intermittent
communication issues.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/Thompson/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
EQUIPMENT...ALY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-181100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
336 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Widely scattered non severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An active period of hazardous weather is expected from Sunday
afternoon into Monday night.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms west of the Hudson
valley Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. On Monday, there is an
Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the region. The
main threat is expected to be damaging wind gusts. Also, with
increasingly moist and humid conditions, flash flooding will become
an additional threat, especially Sunday night into Monday night.
Should conditions become more certain, a Flash Flood Watch would be
issued. Stay tuned for further updates over the next couple days.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible from Sunday afternoon into Monday
night.