Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region late tonight then
stall along the coast Sunday into Monday. Another frontal boundary
moves into the Mid Atlantic region by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Sfc trof over the mts with sct convection developing farther
east in the warm and humid airmass this aftrn, especially across
the northern Outer Banks. Latest high res data showing
different scenarios on just how much activity moves across the
fa over the next several hours. Thus, kept the sct (chc) pops in
for now, highest across the Outer Banks. Any severe threat
appears to be north of the AKQ fa, but typical downpours and
gusty winds are possible in any storm.

Models show enough lingering moisture for the activity to
slowly migrate towards the coast after midnight out ahead of the
approaching cold front. Otw, partly cldy and humid. Lows upr
60s NW-mid 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak wave of low pressure progged along the boundary across
eastern NC Sunday morning so kept low chc shwrs across sern
zones. Otw, frontal boundary location will determine where
convection develops. Expect sern zones to have the best chc
during the afternoon/evening. Slght chc farther north. Highs upr
80s-lwr 90s.

Rather persistent forecast Monday and Tuesday as the models
have the boundary meandering around the Mid Atlantic region.
This to be the focus for mainly diurnal convection with the best
support for any activity across srn zones. Lower chcs farther
north. Highs both days in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. Lows upr 60s NW-
mid 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will be characterized by frequent chances for
shras/tstms and near to slightly above normal temps. For Wed...will
include a chance of tstms during the aftn hours with decent moisture
in the area and weak shortwave energy embedded in the zonal flow
aloft. With weak mid-level energy and lack of low-level forcing,
will cap pops attm at 40%. A stronger vort max aloft approaches the
area Thu/Thu night, with pops up to 50%. Again will not go likely
with pops with some uncertainties regarding timing this far out in
time. Chance of rain continues into late next week as the frontal
bndry may stall in the vicinity. As for temps...expect highs in the
upr 80s to lwr 90s each day with lows in the upr 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions across the region with warm S-SW flow
but lots of sct-bkn clouds 3000-4000 feet. A weak trof of low
pressure will slowly move through the CWA this afternoon and
evening and help to fire off some convection. All TAF sites have
a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms before sunset.
With the humid airmass, heavy rain and strong gusty winds will
be the biggest threat. Some scattered showers will probably
linger through the overnight with mostly mid level ceilings and
a chance for some patchy MVFR ceilings across the region.

Outlook: Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
will once again be possible Sunday. Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Patchy morning
fog or stratus will be possible in the later part of the outlook
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows high pres offshore with a sfc lee trough
over the area. Expect sub-sca conditions for the remainder of this
weekend into early next week. Weak pres gradient for Sun will
allow for light winds and sea breezes during the aftn. Similar
conditions into Mon with winds aob 10 kt, waves over the Bay 1-2
ft, and seas over cstl wtrs 2-3 ft. Fairly benign marine
conditions continue through the middle of the week, with the
next stronger cold front approaching the area late in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS