Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
1128 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will move from northern Ohio into western
New York today, while a secondary low will lift from western
Virginia into northern Pennsylvania. This system will bring
strong to severe thunderstorms to the local area this morning
into early this afternoon. These lows will pull a strong cold
front across the region and off the coast later this morning
into this afternoon. Deep low pressure pulls slowly away to the
northeast with high pressure building into the Mid Atlantic
States later tonight into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to push
across the region late this morning, but it appears the severe
threat is quickly diminishing west of Interstate 95. Surface
cyclogenesis has occurred over the northern Mid-Atlantic region,
but latest soundings and VAD wind profiles indicate less backing
with height than initially indicated in the model guidance.
Elongated reflectivity structures also imply a shear/buoyancy
imbalance, as its been difficult to overcome an early morning
cap. However, theta-e advection and temperatures warming to
around 70 will result in a marginally unstable air mass east of
Interstate 95 ahead of the organizing line. Strong mid/low level
flow and related shear still favors strong/damaging winds, but
the tornado threat is diminishing with only isolated tornadoes
possible east of Interstate 95.

Additional convection is also developing ahead of the strong
cold front over the Piedmont. 12Z KRNK sounding depicts steep
lapse rates and a freezing level down to around 6k feet AGL.
However, there is considerable drying above 700mb. Additional
gusty winds and small hail will be possible with this activity.

The shortwave and cold front quickly push offshore early this
aftn, as a dry slot overspreads the region. The surface low
continues to deepen, lifting northward into the Northeast this
evening. The cold pool aloft and lingering mid level moisture
will result in instability driven showers and an isolated
thunderstorm during this aftn. Otherwise, southwest winds
increase to 15-25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph (strongest near
the coast). Highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Secondary cold front pushes out to sea tonight, resulting in
cooler temps and partly cloudy conditions. Lows in the lower to
mid 40s. Broad cyclonic flow remains over the region Fri, as
another disturbance rounds the upper low over the Northeast.
Have slight chance POPs acrs the northeast local area for light
precip. Sky averages mostly cloudy north to partly cloudy
south. Highs Fri only ranging fm the mid 50s to near 60. High
pressure builds into and over the region for Fri night thru Sat.
Lows Fri night in the mid 30s to arnd 40, and highs on Sat in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong sfc hi pres over the SE states Sat night slides off the
SE coast Sun, allowing winds to bcm sly Sun aftn with temps
rising into the mid 60s to near 70F. S/SW winds increase Mon
under strong WAA, with temps climbing into the mid/upr 70s most
areas. Dry also for Tue with south flow ahead of the next
approaching cold front...highs again mainly in the mid/upr 70s
to near 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early this morning, one low pressure was cntrd over wrn OH, with
a cold front extending fm the low thru ern KY/TN. This low will
lift ENE twd the ern Great Lakes and into wrn PA thru this
morning, while a secondary low forms over wrn VA and moves into
nrn MD. These two lows will then combine into one strong low
over PA/NY this aftn/evening, while pulling a cold front thru
the Delmarva and off the coast.

Expect mainly VFR/MVFR conditions into early this aftn, with
only isolted IFR cigs early this morning before main line of
showers/tstms moves thru the region later this morning into
early this aftn. Some tstms will likely be severe between 7 am
and 1 pm today. Gusts to over 50 knots will be possible in
tstms at the TAF sites. Gusty SW winds to around 30-35 knots
will occur this aftn. There will be partial clearing, but there
will be a lingering chc for showers and an isolated tstm thru
early this evening.

OUTLOOK...Deep low pressure pulls slowly to the northeast with high
pressure building into the Mid Atlc States tonight into Sun. The
high will then move off the coast Sun aftn with dry weather and
mainly VFR conditions continuing thru Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
A complex weather system will affect the area over the next few days
with strong SCA's expected over all the waters. Will start all
headlines and adjust the ending times (through Friday night) with
this forecast package. Although can not rule out a few gusts to 35
KTS, held off on any gales thinking that any wind gusts over 35 kts
will be more convective in nature and handled with individual SMW's
rather than blanketing the entire area with gales. Thus, capped
gusts at 33 KTS for now. Seas up to 7-8 ft out 20 nm with waves over
the Bay up to 4 to 5 ft. S winds this morng will shift to SW this
aftn as low pres races off to the N/NE. Strong to severe tstms are
psbl until early afternoon with this system.

Winds become west at 20-30 kt Fri before winds start to decrease Fri
night/Sat. Improving marine conditions over the weekend as broad sfc
high pres builds south of the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood advsry has been issued for the Bay side of the
Lwr MD Eastern Shore with levels, at least at Bishops Head,
expected to reach minor flood thresholds with the high tide
cycle midday today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
911 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>098-509>525-071315-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
911 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 132 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Behind the cold front, west to southwest winds will increase to
20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ024-025-VAZ099-100-071315-
Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
911 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are expected later this
morning into early this afternoon. The main threats will be damaging
winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The most likely timeframe
will be from 10 am through 2 pm.

Behind the cold front, west to southwest winds will increase to
20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>023-071315-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
911 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are expected later this
morning into early this afternoon. The main threats will be damaging
winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The most likely timeframe
will be from 10 am through 2 pm.

Behind the cold front, west to southwest winds will increase to
20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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