Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
403 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front across the Delmarva will continue to lift north the
rest of this afternoon...as low pressure strengthens over
Northern Virginia and tracks northeast tonight. A trailing cold
front will drop into the region tonight with another area of
low pressure tracking along the boundary. This front stalls over
North Carolina Tuesday into Thursday as high pressure builds
north of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A meso-low continues to strengthen over nrn VA/MD late this
aftn as a warm front straddles the Delmarva. The warm front will
slowly lift NNE through early evening as a trailing cold front
develops along the meso-low trough. The low is expected to track
NE tonight with the front crossing the region late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Warm rain processes and training (in addition
to Pwats approaching 2.00 inches, very saturated atmospheric
profiles, and slow ewd movement of the meso-low cold front) will
all contribute to very heavy rainfall the rest of today and
tonight...especially across the MD Lower Eastern Shore where
2.50 to close to 3.00 inches of rain fell in 1 hour earlier this
aftn, the Nrn Neck region of VA, and Accomack County VA. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM for these
areas. There is also enough low-level shear present invof the
warm front for rotating thunderstorms to develop and possibly
spin-up a brief tornado.

For later tonight...an upper trough swinging across the Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley will allow additional shortwave
energy to stream into the region late tonight. This will be
enough to generate elevated instability (weak instability at the
sfc) and thus continue a threat for showers/storms...especially
invof theta-e gradient. Very heavy rainfall will continue to
pose a threat in the aforementioned areas within the Flash
Flood Watch area...again especially MD Lower Eastern Shore where
the most rain has occurred so far today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front exits far southeast coastal areas Tuesday
morning and is expected to settle across NC by Tuesday aftn.
Highest precip chances remain 60-80% Tuesday morning for far SE
VA/NE NC. At least partial clearing is expected across the N
Tuesday as high pressure builds across PA/MD. Clouds and a
30-60% chc of showers will persist across extreme SE VA and NE
NC during the aftn...in closer proximity to the boundary. Highs
Tuesday will mainly be around 80 (upper 70s beaches).

The frontal boundary remains south of the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Models are trending drier in shunting
precip chances farther south of the area as high pressure
settles into the region. Conditions generally partly sunny north
with variable clouds to mostly cloudy south. Lows Tuesday and
Wednesday nights in the lower 60s NW to upper 60s
(possibly 70F) SE. Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 80s
(mid 70s beaches with onshore winds).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term period will feature near normal temps and a good chance
of rain each day. Pattern will be characterized by a broad upr-
level trough over the eastern CONUS with transient shortwaves
and a sfc frontal bndry near the Mid Atlc. PoPs will be in the
30-50% range every day, with the best chance being during the
aftn hours. As for temps, expect highs averaging in the mid 80s
with lows mainly in the upr 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front is over the central portions of the CWA with a
large area of rain and thunderstorms affecting the region. The
heaviest rain is generally over the eastern portions including
the Eastern Shore of Maryland and Virginia. This should mostly
move offshore in one to two hours. Widespread MVFR ceilings
affect the region and the TAF sites. Expect the ceilings to
improve to VFR by mid to late afternoon but stay mostly in the
3500 to 5000 ft range. The front will be stationary during the
night and another wave of rain is expected to overspread the
region overnight bringing MVFR/IFR conditions. This should
generally improve by morning with most of the rain ending and a
cold front pushing through the region.

High pressure and VFR conditions expected Tue afternoon through
Thursday. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the
area late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA hazards remain in effect over all wtrs except the Upr
James/York/Rappahannock as winds/waves/seas are expected to
increase through this evening as the pres gradient increases
and sfc low pres strengthens over the DELMARVA. A cold front
will drop through the waters late tonight into Tue morning, with
marine conditions then improving. Expect ~10 kt winds by Tue
aftn as the front slides south into the Carolinas, where it will
remain through midweek as high pres builds over the NE states.
The high slides off the coast Thu as flow becomes onshore under
15 kt with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl
wtrs. The front slides north into the area late in the week
leading to a return of unsettled wx albeit sub-SCA conditions.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for VAZ075>078-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...ALB/BMD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS

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