Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves south across the area tonight and stalls
over the Carolinas on Saturday. This front will lift back
north as a warm front on Sunday. Another cold front is
expected to cross the Mid Atlantic region Monday into Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows broad Bermuda high pres offshore with
a prefrontal trough over central VA and a cold front across PA.
The cold front drops south into the region tonight as high pres
builds over the NE states. As for convection this
aftn...although widespread severe wx is not expected, a few
storms could be strong to severe due to high CAPE and low-level
lapse rates. There is still some uncertainty however to coverage
later this eveng hence keeping PoPs in the chance range. Chance
PoPs everywhere later this eveng become slight chance
overnight. Low temps tonight in the mid/upr 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pres builds over the NE states Sat as the cold front pushes
south into the Carolinas. With the front still close to the
area, maintained a 20-30% of rain Sat/Sat night, with the best
chance over S/SW areas. Along with NE winds, pattern will favor
below normal temps...highs Sat only in the 70s most locations
with upr 60s over the Lwr Eastern Shore. Lows Sat night in the
mid 50s to lwr 60s. Aforementioned front lifts north as a warm
front Sun, but will go no higher than 20% PoPs attm with weak
forcing aloft. Continued below normal temps with highs again
only in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mon forecast based off a GFS/ECMWF solution which remains
consistent in bringing a strong cold front across the region
during the aftrn and evening. NAM just to drastic of a change to
rely on attm. Decent jet, upr level shortwave energy and late
day timing could result in an active fropa. The severity of any
storms will likely depend on how much heating takes place ahead
it. Heavy rainers possible given the progged PW's. Chc pops in
the morning then likely pops in the afternoon. Highs mid 70s to
lwr 80s. Front pushes offshore around midnight with some drying
behind it. Likely pops east with chc pops west during the
evening, then slght chc pops along the coast after 06Z. Lows mid
50-mid 60s.

Brief reprieve from the wet weather Tue as weak high pressure builds
into the area. Dry with highs mid-upr 70s. Dry Tue evening with pops
increasing across the west after 06Z ahead of the next systm. Lows
upr 50s-lwr 60s.

Next in a series of upr level lows tracks NE across the Gt lakes
region Wed with the trailing cold progged to cross the region during
the afternoon and evening. Could be a repeat of Mon with good upr
level support, jet dynamics and late day timing. Chc pops in the
morning with likely in the afternoon. Highs 75-80. Boundary pushes
offshore Wed night with pops tapering off after midnight. Lows mid
50s-lwr 60s.

Upr level low lifts NE with models showing a series of shortwaves
rotating arnd it Thurs through Fri. Timing of pcpn appears to be
more diurnal in nature. Thus will keep 20-30 pops each day (highest
late afternoon/early evening). Highs both days in the mid-upr 70s.
Lows in the 50s except arnd 60 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Iso-sct showers/tstms developing over the Blue Ridge and
Piedmont as of 18z are expected to push into the region later
this aftn into this evening. RIC has the best potential for a
tstm through 22z, with the past few runs of the HRRR showing
showers/tstms pushing farther E toward SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG after
22z and ending/dissipating by 04z. Any storms could produce
brief MVFR conditions in cig/vsby along with small hail and
brief stronger wind gusts. Patchy 3-5sm BR is possible late
tonight (mainly for locations that receive rain) prior to the
arrival of an approaching cold front. The cold front will sweep
through the area from about 10-16z Saturday resulting in a wind
shift to NE, with wind gusts to ~20kt possible, especially for
sites closer to the coast. MVFR cigs are possible behind the
cold front along with a slight chc for lingering showers.

The boundary returns N as a warm front late Saturday night
through Sunday night bringing the potential for IFR stratus and
areas of light rain. A cold front approaches from the W Monday
bringing a chc of showers/tstms. High pressure returns Tuesday,
followed by another chc of showers/tstms Wednesday as low
pressure approaches from the W.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest models still on track for a cold frontal passage late tonight
and Sat. SCA's remain in place as winds turn NE behind the fropa and
become gusty at times mainly due to pressure rises of 4-6 mb/hr as
high pressure builds from the eastern Great Lakes. Seas build to 4-5
ft on avg and waves in the Bay will avg 3- 4 ft. The event is fairly
short in duration, with winds diminishing by Sat evening as high
pressure builds a little farther south and easterly winds diminish
to 10-15 kt. Seas will remain elevated into Sat night on the coast
so headlines there have been issued through the 4th period/Sat nite.
Seas on Sun avg 3-4 ft.

Winds become SSE later Sun into Mon ahead of the next frontal system
approaching from the west. The next front crosses the area late Mon.
Not much change in airmass behind this front so expect winds to
remain below SCA levels early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ102.
VA...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ656.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-201930-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
322 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

VAZ062-068-069-513-515-191845-
Goochland-Western Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of
Richmond)-Powhatan-Amelia-
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
CHESTERFIELD...SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND...NORTHWESTERN HENRICO...NORTH
CENTRAL AMELIA AND SOUTHEASTERN POWHATAN COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
RICHMOND...

At 211 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Sabot to near Amelia Courthouse.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Powhatan, Bon Air, Tuckahoe, University Of Richmond,
Moseley, Manakin, Glen Allen, Chula, Sabot, Laurel, Lakeside,
Pilkinton, Skinquarter, Solomons Store, Fine Creek Mills, Roslyn
Hills, Holly Hills, Dumbarton and Genito.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...
and blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and
other light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3761 7787 3768 7747 3768 7744 3767 7744
      3766 7743 3765 7743 3735 7771 3738 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 261DEG 33KT 3757 7779 3739 7800

SCALORA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

VAZ060-066>068-080-513-191930-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Western Chesterfield-Dinwiddie-Amelia-Prince
Edward-
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE EDWARD...
NORTHERN LUNENBURG...NOTTOWAY...WESTERN DINWIDDIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
AMELIA COUNTIES...

At 240 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Green Bay, or 9
miles west of Crewe, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blackstone, Crewe, McKenney, Mannboro, Nottoway, Burkeville, Wilsons,
Fort Pickett, Spainville, Green Bay, North Wellville, Irby, Prince
Edward Station, Earls, Ammon, Murdocks, Twin Lakes State Park,
Forkland, Nutbush and Darvills.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3722 7839 3732 7765 3695 7767 3696 7776
      3697 7777 3700 7784 3699 7785 3699 7788
      3698 7792 3699 7797 3702 7800 3702 7801
      3699 7801 3704 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 270DEG 34KT 3713 7829

SEYMOUR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

VAZ513>515-191915-
Western Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of
Richmond)-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD COUNTY AND
THE CITY OF RICHMOND...

At 245 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bon Air, moving
east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Moseley, Downtown Richmond, Bon Air, Virginia Union
University, Virginia Commonwealth University, University Of Richmond,
Chester, Tuckahoe, Bensley, Chesterfield Court House, Bellwood, East
Highland Park, Chesterfield, Midlothian, Pocahontas State Park,
Skinquarter, Beach, Drewrys Bluff and Centralia.

People attending Richmond Riverrock should seek safe shelter
immediately!

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...and
blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3750 7775 3756 7765 3758 7741 3755 7741
      3755 7740 3754 7739 3751 7740 3752 7741
      3752 7742 3746 7742 3744 7743 3731 7746
      3739 7779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 271DEG 21KT 3748 7765

SCALORA

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