Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary approaches from the northwest late this
evening and then drops into the area tonight. This boundary
stalls near the Virginia North Carolina border Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Will maintain current heat advisory as locations within the
advisory are meeting criteria. Relief from the heat may come in
the form of scattered showers/tstms late this aftn into the
evening as a frontal boundary slowly approaches from the NW. As
of 3 pm, convection was still north/west of the local area but
do expect increasing PoPs thru the evening, especially N/W. Will
show increasing PoPs into the evening from W to E (40-60%).

The SPC day 1 severe slight risk area covers all but the far SW
Piedmont counties and NE NC. The main concern would be for
large hail and damaging wind gusts in organizing tstms ahead of
the front, given ML Capes values of 1500-2500 j/kg and also
strengthening speed shear and steepening low to mid level lapse
rates.

The frontal boundary drops into the area late tonight. A 20-40%
PoP for showers/tstms will linger overnight, mainly along/east
of I-95, but the intensity of tstms will subside. Remaining
warm and humid with lows in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned front stalls and gradually dissipates in
vicinity of the VA/NC border Saturday and Sunday. Conditions dry
out across the N Saturday, with PoPs of 25-50% continuing for
SE VA/NE NC in vicinity of the decaying front. Conditions across
srn VA/NE NC will not be able to completely dry out Sunday with
the boundary lingering to our S. Forecast PoPs Sunday are
30-50% for SE VA/NE NC bordered by 20-40% PoPs S of Richmond.
High temperatures range from the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday
and Sunday. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

By Monday, low pressure deepens over the eastern Great Lakes and
further sharpens an upper trough over the local area. This
should result in at least diurnal convection, so will carry chc
PoPs for the local area (25-40%). Highs in the upper 80s to
around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Trough aloft will be slow to move across the region (at least
through Wed)...resulting in continued typical summertime wx w/
generally diurnally driven PoPs (SHRAs/tstms) (Tue-Wed). By
mid/late next week...ridge aloft begins to expand back into the
region from the W and S...potentially leading to "drying" and
hotter conditions (though enough of a NW flow may be problematic
for possible convective complexes). Temperatures will average
closer to normal through Wed...then back above normal mid next
week. Highs Mon-Wed in the u80s- l90s. Highs Thu-Fri in the
l-m90s. Most nighttime lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A leeside trough will reside over the area today as a cold front
approaches from the NW. Scattered aftn cumulus are developing
early this aftn with a more consolidated mass of clouds between
FVX-RIC. Winds generally SW 10kt or less...a few knots higher at
the SE VA/NE NC coasts. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop invof the lee trough axis (or west of a
SBY-RIC-AVC line) late this aftn/early evening and primarily
after 14/2000-2100Z. Thunderstorm chances increase from west to
east during the rest of the evening (40-60%) as weak low
pressure pushes through the area ahead of the cold front. Any
thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing locally
strong wind gusts and IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS due to brief heavy
rainfall.

The front drops into the area late tonight and stalls near the
VA/NC border Saturday and Sunday...maintaining a chance of
showers/storms for SE VA/NE NC. The initial front dissipates by
Monday as another cold front approaches from the NW and drops
into the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Bermuda High pressure system that has been in place for
much of the week will continue to weaken/shift E through
tonight w/ a cold front approaching the local area from the NW.
SW flow ahead of that front continues through most of tonight.
With the push behind the front being relatively weak...the
movement of the front will remain slow through Sat w/ taking
time to switch to the NW. So expect SW winds to again
accelerate this evening-tonight to the 10 to 20 kt range. Seas
remained below 5 ft Thu night over the ocean waters...will keep
seas below SCA tonight.

By Sat afternoon...the front will be reaching near the VA/NC
boarder where it is expected to stall out and then gradually
dissipate by Sun afternoon and evening. Behind the front...the
winds will be light and mainly from the N Sat night...but as the
front dissolves...the winds will turn back around to the S
Sun/Sun night (while average aob 10 kt). SSW flow will continue
into early next week as the Bermuda reestablishes its control.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Norfolk has reached 99 degrees as of 3 pm.

Record highs for today are listed below.

             FRI (7/14)
Richmond    103 in 1954
Norfolk     101 in 1993
Salisbury    98 in 1966
Eliz. City   98 in 1986

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ081>090-092-
     093-095>100-512-514>516-518-520-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJZ/BMD
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-080-509>511-513-517-
519-521-522-151930-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Dinwiddie-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the
main threats. Continued hot and humid thru this evening with heat
index values between 100 and 104 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ081>086-088>090-092-093-095>100-512-514>516-518-520-523>525-
151930-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton-
Eastern Hanover-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ087-151930-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Greensville-
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. Some of the
storms may produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ060-065>067-079-151930-
Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-
Brunswick-
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the
main threats. Continued hot and humid thru this evening with heat
index values between 100 and 104 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
555 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

MDZ021-142315-
Dorchester-
555 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DORCHESTER COUNTY...

At 554 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Carville to near Breezy Point to near
Nanjemoy Creek. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch
are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  University Of Maryland Center For Environmental Studies around 625
  PM EDT.
  Cambridge around 630 PM EDT.
  Secretary around 640 PM EDT.
  Hurlock around 650 PM EDT.
  Taylors Island around 705 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Galestown, Madison,
Brookview, Eldorado, Andrews, Hudson, Church Creek, Lloyds, Taylors
Island and Woolford.

If you see lightning or hear thunder...you are at risk. Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...
and blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and
other light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3870 7580 3864 7571 3856 7570 3847 7582
      3828 7615 3839 7623 3831 7624 3833 7624
      3832 7625 3831 7625 3849 7634 3854 7620
      3854 7628 3863 7629 3857 7603 3870 7590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 267DEG 31KT 3907 7600 3863 7646 3838 7706

ALB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
628 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

VAZ064-142315-
Caroline-
628 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAROLINE COUNTY...

At 626 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Port Royal to near Milford to near
Bumpass. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Milford, Ladysmith, Fort A.p. Hill, Rappahannock
Academy, Chilesburg, Sparta, Golansville, Villboro, Guinea, Penola,
Nancy Wrights Corner, Cedar Fork, Ruther Glen, Woodford, Cedon and
Burruss Corner.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs...small or weakened trees...
and blowing around trash cans...potted plants...lawn furniture and
other light outdoor objects.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads...and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3797 7714 3788 7738 3795 7757 3796 7757
      3798 7764 3799 7764 3813 7750 3823 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 287DEG 19KT 3819 7729 3806 7744 3796 7766

BUTNER

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