River Flood Warning 2, NWS Wakefield, VA

026 
WGUS81 KAKQ 260114
FLSAKQ
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield, Va
914 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...

  Meherrin River At Lawrenceville affecting Brunswick County


For the Chowan Basin...including Lawrenceville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

VAC025-261314-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.FL.W.0002.170426T0348Z-170427T0316Z/
/LAWV2.1.ER.170426T0348Z.170426T1200Z.170426T2116Z.NO/
914 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Meherrin River At Lawrenceville
* until Wednesday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 08:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.9 feet by 
  Wednesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage
  Wednesday evening.  
* At 15.0 feet...Pasture land north of the river, downstream
of the gage, begins to flood.
This river level is comparable to a previous crest of 17.4
feet on 
Feb 25 2016.

&&

LAT...LON  3683 7802 3676 7756 3666 7757 3668 7783
      3666 7793 3672 7803             

$$

926 
WGUS81 KAKQ 260816
FLSAKQ
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield, Va
416 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..

  Meherrin River At Lawrenceville affecting Brunswick County


For the Chowan Basin...including Lawrenceville...Minor flooding is 
occurring and is expected to continue.

VAC025-262016-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170427T0316Z/
/LAWV2.1.ER.170426T0531Z.170426T1200Z.170426T2116Z.NO/
416 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Meherrin River At Lawrenceville
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 03:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.9 feet by this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* At 15.0 feet...Pasture land north of the river, downstream of the 
  gage, begins to flood.


&&

LAT...LON  3683 7802 3676 7756 3666 7757 3668 7783
      3666 7793 3672 7803             

$$

226 
WGUS81 KAKQ 261258
FLSAKQ
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield, Va
858 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...

  Meherrin River At Lawrenceville affecting Brunswick County


For the Chowan Basin...including Lawrenceville...Minor flooding is 
occurring and river levels are forecasted to decrease.

VAC025-262009-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170426T2009Z/
/LAWV2.1.ER.170426T0531Z.170426T1200Z.170426T1409Z.NO/
858 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Meherrin River At Lawrenceville
* until this afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 08:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this morning.
* At 15.0 feet...Pasture land north of the river, downstream of the 
  gage, begins to flood.
This river level is comparable to a previous crest of 16.6 feet on 
Feb 17 2016.

&&

LAT...LON  3683 7802 3676 7756 3666 7757 3668 7783
      3666 7793 3672 7803             

$$

243 
WGUS81 KAKQ 261720
FLSAKQ
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield, Va
120 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Virginia...

  Meherrin River At Lawrenceville affecting Brunswick County


For the Chowan Basin...including Lawrenceville...no flooding is 
observed or forecast.

VAC025-261750-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170426T2009Z/
/LAWV2.1.ER.170426T0531Z.170426T1200Z.170426T1500Z.NO/
120 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Meherrin River At Lawrenceville
* At 12:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Fell below flood stage around 11:30 AM this morning.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 10.4 feet by
  8:00 AM Thursday morning.
* At 15.0 feet...Pasture land north of the river, downstream of the 
  gage, begins to flood.
This river level is comparable to a previous crest of 16.6 feet on 
Feb 17 2016.

&&

LAT...LON  3683 7802 3676 7756 3666 7757 3668 7783
      3666 7793 3672 7803             

$$

DeRosa

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
450 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast tonight,
then slowly moves offshore Wednesday. High pressure builds into the
area Thursday. A cold front stalls north of the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest MSAS has the center of the filling low over the NC coastal
plain and is progged to move NE tonight reaching a position off the
eastern shore after 06Z. High res data combined with the latest
radar trends would favor the highest pops along coastal sections
this evening. Will carry likely pops there with chc pops elsewhere.
Thunder chcs along an E of I95 through sunset then along the coast
through midnight as the low drifts NE. Systm slow enough for moisture
to linger through most of the night across the fa. Thus, kept chc pops
after midnight. Concern then turns to the potential for fog development
due to wet ground and warm temps. Will carry patchy fog in grids for now
(except areas of fog ivof OXB, SPS currently in effect) and allow the
evening shift to adjust the grids as needed. Lows 55-60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The low is progged to be east of Cape May NJ by 12Z Wed then slowly
pulls NE away from the region as an upper level ridge builds in from
the west. Thermal soundings cont to show some mid level moisture
trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion aloft, which will help
keep clouds around most of the day across eastern zones. Even enough
lingering moisture around for sct showers through 15Z or so along
the eastern shore. Appears enough subsidence across the west for
skies to become partly to mstly sunny after 18Z. Highs 75-80 west of
the bay, upr 60s-lwr 70s along the coast.

Mostly clr / pt cldy Wed nite. Lows in the upr 50s to lwr 60s.

Ridge axis slides offshore ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday. Increasing return flow and 850mb temps around +14 to +16C
(around +1 standard deviation) result in warm and dry conditions.
Highs in the mid 80s west of the bay, upr 70s-lwr 80s eastern shore,
cooler at the beaches.

Models differ a bit in returning moisture across the mts Thurs nite.
Appears a weak trof moves east producing low chc shwrs after 06Z.
Lows in the 60s. Weak trof pushes east Fri morning. Will keep slght
chc pops thru noon, then dry.  Highs in the low to mid 80s except
remaining in the 70s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
the weekend as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the
Ern Conus. 850mb temperatures ~18C will support highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 Saturday (75-80F at the immediate coast)
after morning lows in the mid/upper 60s. A weak front will knock
high temperatures down a few degrees Sunday over the Ern Shore, with
low 80s expected and mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast. Meanwhile,
highs W of the Bay will once again be into the upper 80s.
Aftn/evening chances for showers/tstms Saturday/Sunday will be low
and mainly aob 20%. A cold front approaches from the W Monday.
Forecast highs Monday are in the low/mid 80s after morning lows in
the mid/upper 60s. 25/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC support the best chc for
showers/tstms very late Monday aftn into Monday evening and shifting
to the coast late Monday night. Temperatures trend back toward
normal Tuesday with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure continues to move northeast across the region this
afternoon before finally pushing offshore tonight. Widespread IFR
ceilings continue over mainly northern portions of the area,
including RIC and SBY, this afternoon. Closer to the center of low
pressure over southeast portions of the region, some temporary
clearing and mainly VFR ceilings are anticipated. Radar trends have
shown diminishing coverage in rain showers this afternoon, but model
guidance continues to hint at the redevelopment of showers across
eastern portions of the area.

Stratus and widespread IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop
overnight as moisture wraps around the backside of the low pressure.
Guidance has also been persistent with the development of patchy fog
tonight and into tomorrow morning. Included MVFR visibilities for
tonight, but it is possible IFR visibilities may develop in a few
locations. Conditions will improve during the day on Wednesday,
returning to VFR Wednesday afternoon.

Light easterly flow is expected to continue through this afternoon
and evening. Winds will shift to the W/NW as the low departs the
area tonight and Wednesday. Winds remain light on Wednesday,
generally 5-10 knots.

Outlook: Aviation conditions improve through the day on Wednesday
with VFR expected to return to the area. A shower or thunderstorm
will be possible during the day on Friday, but otherwise, VFR and
dry conditions should dominate the extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows strong sfc low pres near the VA/NC coast.
With the low directly over the area, winds have diminished this
aftn to mainly sub-sca criteria. Waves and seas remain elevated
however, with 4 ft waves expected to continue over the mouth of
the Bay for another few hours and seas aoa 5 ft through daytime
Wed for southern coastal wtrs and through Wed night for
northern coastal wtrs. Also, a high surf advsry will remain in
effect for the Lwr Eastern Shore beaches until early this eveng
as nearshore waves remain ~8 ft. The sfc low pulls NE of the
area late tonight into Wed with winds avgg aob 10 kt and seas
slowly subsiding. Quieter marine conditions towards the end of
the week with persistent S/SW flow over the area until early
next week when the next cold front crosses the region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Current tidal departures continue to average around 1.0 to 1.5
feet, with strong low pressure pushing up the Mid Atlc coast.
With the high tidal anomalies and new moon tomorrow, expect many
areas to reach minor flooding tonight. Have hoisted several
coastal flood advisories and statements to account for this.
Think this tide will have the highest water levels this week,
but still cannot rule out some areas getting to minor again
Wed/Wed night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-
     025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for
     VAZ084>086-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for VAZ089-093-095>097.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
445 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>083-087-088-090-
092-098-509>522-262045-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Greensville-Sussex-
James City-Southampton-Virginia Beach-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
445 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-262045-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
445 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>023-262045-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
445 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ089-093-095>097-262045-
Surry-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
445 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ024-262045-
Inland Worcester-
445 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ084>086-523>525-262045-
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
445 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
332 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

MDZ024-025-252200-
Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Including the cities of Snow Hill and Ocean City
332 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE MARYLAND BEACHES...

Areas of fog have developed along the Maryland beaches this
afternoon. Visibilities have lowered to less than one mile.
Showers will continue to cross the area late this afternoon as
well.

Motorists should be alert for sudden changes in visibility due to
the areas of fog. Drive at reduced speeds and use low beam headlights
only.