Frost Advisory 2, NWS Wakefield, VA

824 
WWUS71 KAKQ 261413
NPWAKQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1013 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

VAZ048-062-064-509>511-262215-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FR.Y.0002.171027T0900Z-171027T1300Z/
Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-
Including the cities of Goochland, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland
1013 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* AREAS AFFECTED: Portions of central Virginia, mainly north- 
  northwest of the Richmond Metro area.

* TEMPERATURES: Lows in the mid 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants left unprotected may be 
  damaged or killed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

548 
WWUS71 KAKQ 261900
NPWAKQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

VAZ060-061-065>069-075-076-513-521-270300-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.FR.Y.0002.171027T0700Z-171027T1300Z/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Western Chesterfield-Western Essex-
Including the cities of Farmville, South Hill, Crewe, Bon Air, 
Midlothian, and Tappahannock
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a Frost
Advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.

* AREAS AFFECTED: Portions of central Virginia, mainly north and
  west of the Richmond Metro area.

* TEMPERATURES: Lows in the mid 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants left unprotected may be 
  damaged or killed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected. Sensitive
outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

VAZ048-062-064-509>511-270300-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.FR.Y.0002.171027T0700Z-171027T1300Z/
Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-
Including the cities of Goochland, Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

...FROST ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* AREAS AFFECTED: Virginia Piedmont

* TEMPERATURES: Lows in the mid 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants left unprotected may be 
  damaged or killed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected. Sensitive
outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

941 
WWUS71 KAKQ 270119
NPWAKQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
919 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017


VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-509>511-513-521-270930-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FR.Y.0002.171027T0700Z-171027T1300Z/
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Western Essex-
Including the cities of Farmville, Goochland, South Hill, Crewe, 
Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Bon Air, Midlothian, and Tappahannock
919 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* AREAS AFFECTED: Virginia Piedmont

* TEMPERATURES: Lows in the mid 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants left unprotected may be 
  damaged or killed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

322 
WWUS71 KAKQ 270712
NPWAKQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
312 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-509>511-513-521-271300-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-171027T1300Z/
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Western Essex-
Including the cities of Farmville, Goochland, South Hill, Crewe, 
Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Bon Air, Midlothian, and Tappahannock
312 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* AREAS AFFECTED: Portions of the Virginia Piedmont

* TEMPERATURES: Lows in the lower to mid 30s.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive outdoor plants left unprotected may be 
  damaged or killed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

05

488 
WWUS71 KAKQ 271301
NPWAKQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
901 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-509>511-513-521-271415-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-171027T1300Z/
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Western Essex-
Including the cities of Farmville, Goochland, South Hill, Crewe, 
Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Bon Air, Midlothian, and Tappahannock
901 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Temperatures will quickly rise through the 40s this morning. 

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
959 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the southwest Thursday and Friday.
A complex area of low pressure will then cross the area
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The current surface analysis shows a cold front offshore with
high pressure building across the Gulf Coast. Aloft, a deep
upper-level trough axis is pushing east through the OH Valley.
Temperatures this evening have dropped into the upper 40s to low
50s, with locally mid/upper 50s for coastal SE VA/NE NC.
Despite the high amplitude trough, fairly modest moisture
profiles and forcing aloft will keep most areas dry tonight,
with a mostly clear sky this evening becoming partly to mostly
cloudy overnight through early morning. Most hi-res guidance
hints at a cluster of showers developing over the VA Ern Shore,
mainly from 08-13z. Temperatures will be close to normal for late
October, with lows ranging from the lower 40s well inland to
the mid/upr 40s close to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Following a small chance of a lingering shower over the Lwr
Eastern Shore Thu morning, dry wx expected for the short term
period as the aforementioned upr-level trough pulls off to the
NE and sfc high pressure builds in from the SW. This will lead
to a mostly sunny/clear sky with high temps in the low/mid 60s
Thu rising to the upr 60s to near 70 Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period begins with a strong upper trough
digging over the Midwest with a cold front over the Ohio Valley, and
a ridge off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Surface high pressure remains
immediately off the coast Friday night and then gradually pushes
farther offshore by Saturday. Lows Friday night range from the mid
40s inland to the low/mid 50s at the immediate coast, followed by a
mild day Saturday ahead of the approaching cold front with highs
ranging from the upper 60s NW, to the low/mid 70s SE with increasing
clouds. The 25/12z model consensus is slightly faster than that of
yesterday depicting the frontal band of moisture and likely PoPs
arriving across the region primarily 06-18z Sunday and through 00z
Monday for the Ern Shore. This is a very dynamic system with strong
jet stream level flow (nearly 150kt progged at 200mb) and vigorous
vertical ascent. There is the potential for some heavy rain
(especially if a subtropical low becomes embedded along the front)
although there is still some uncertainty with respect to fine scale
details. Remaining mild Saturday night with lows in the 50s, to
around 60F SE, followed by highs Sunday in the low/mid 60s W to
around 70F SE. The cold front pushes offshore late Sunday
aftn/evening as the upper trough builds over the area Sunday night
into Monday with quasi-zonal flow developing by Tuesday/Wednesday.
Much cooler and drier behind the front. Lows Sunday night range from
the upper 30s over the Piedmont, to the upper 40s at the coast, with
highs of 55-60F by Monday. The latest data supports widespread lows
in the mid/upper 30s Monday night (except for the immediate coast),
and highs of 60-65F Tuesday with a slight moderating trend into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The current analysis depicts a nearly stationary cold front off
the coast, with a secondary trough diving ESE across the
central/srn Appalachians. Mainly clear this evening between
these two systems with a very light W/NW wind aob 5kt. Clouds
increase overnight into early Thursday morning as the secondary
trough swings across the region. Expect a period of BKN VFR cigs
of 4-6kft. High-res models depict some showers developing in
vicinity of the lower Bay and VA Ern Shore between about 08-13z.
Showers have not been mentioned at ORF at this time as
confidence of a direct impact remains low. The sky should clear
from SW-NE later Thursday morning into the aftn with an 8-12kt
NW wind locally gusting up to 20kt at SBY.

Mostly clear/sunny Thursday night/Friday/Friday night with
mainly VFR conditions aside from any ground fog Friday and
Saturday morning. A cold front crosses the region Saturday night
into Sunday bringing a good chc of rain and degraded flight
conditions. Drier conditions return Sunday night into Monday as
high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA's remain up for the coastal waters tonight into Thurs as seas
continue to hover aoa 5 ft north of the NC/VA border.

Models depict a weak s/w crossing the area tonight with another
northerly surge behind it. Although marginal, decided to go with a
minimal SCA (15-20 kts) from late tonight through Thurs afternoon
for the bay based on decent mixing. Seas should slowly subside below
5 feet across the northern coastal waters before sunset.

High pressure builds over the area Friday and Saturday with a return
southerly flow mostly below 20 kts. Some southerly channeling noted
Saturday night.

Rather challenging forecast upcoming early next week as low pressure
(potentially tropical in nature) tracks north along the eastern
seaboard ahead of a strong cold front Sunday into Monday. This
system will be aided by a 120+ kt jet stream so it will be a quick
mover and is progged to deepen as it moves into New England Monday.
For now, increased wind speeds into solid SCA range given todays
model runs. Could even see a period of gale force gusts across the
northern coastal waters Sunday night as the system deepens.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/AJZ
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-262000-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.