Storm Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

087 
FZAK51 PAJK 090656 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-091515-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
MON. 

$$

PKZ011-091515-
GLACIER BAY-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT.



$$

PKZ012-091515-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-091515-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-091515-
ICY STRAIT-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-091515-
CROSS SOUND-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY LATE.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-091515-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-091515-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-091515-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-091515-
FREDERICK SOUND-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-091515-
SUMNER STRAIT-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-091515-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
956 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 PM AKST Sun Jan 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...Blocky upper high will remain over mainland AK
through Mon. A shortwave trof will dig S across SE AK tonight,
then drift into the NE Pacific Mon. Strong surface high over NW
Canada will slowly weaken through Mon while a complex low pressure
area remains over the NE Pacific through Mon.

Main forecast concerns are winds (and wind-related effects) and
temps. The shortwave diving S will help increase winds over the
area this evening, then they should slowly weaken Mon as shortwave
moves offshore and pressure gradient weakens. Locally, while
larger scale critical level is not present, it appears that some
Taku wind activity is present that self-induced the critical
level needed to maintain the mountain wave. Models suggest the
flow above 700 mb will become increasingly NE which might help
destroy the self induced critical level, and cause Taku wind
activity to subside late tonight and Mon morning. Am keeping in
HWW for the downtown Juneau and Douglas areas going until 10 AM
Mon. Elsewhere, locally strong winds will be occurring mainly out
of interior passes, and some of this will affect the PAGY and
PAWG areas. White Pass will continue to have some blowing snow and
wind chills around 30 below through early Mon morning, so kept
the WWY going for zone 18 until 10 AM Mon.

Temps will be very tricky as they will depend on wind. Places
that remain in the stronger N-E winds will remain mixed which will
keep temps up all night tonight, while wind sheltered areas will
be much colder due to radiational cooling. Have leaned toward the
windier/warmer scenario for much of the area, but did have some
wind sheltered cold spots such as the Mendenhall Valley, PAPG, and
the Chilkat Valley. The windy areas will rise only a few degrees
Mon as there is some cold advection with the shortwave moving in
tonight and only slight moderation is expected Mon. Wind sheltered
areas will remain colder than the windy areas but the difference
will be less Mon than tonight.

.LONG TERM...Northerly outflow winds will gradually ease through
mid week as high pressure in Canada weakens. But overall flow
aloft will remain northerly, thus dry and mostly clear conditions
will continue as well. Lighter winds will keep overnight lows on
the cold side.

Flow aloft starts to back to the west Wednesday night, then to the
SW Thurs/Fri. This onshore flow pattern along with a low center
developing over the northern gulf Wed night will bring moisture back
into the region. Have included a chance of snow to the outer coast
late Wed, becoming likely on Thursday. After that the wet pattern
looks to continue with another system coming up from the SW.
Question will be rain vs. snow. Winds shift to the south by
Thursday morning with the first system, but temperatures aloft
don't look to warm much until the Saturday system. Therefore,
Thurs/Fri could have some moderate accumulations before things
mix or change over to rain. This will be fine tuned over the next
several days.

The GFS was used for most adjustments followed by WPC guidance for
later periods. Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM AKST Monday for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKST Monday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ034-035.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ034.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036.
&&

RWT/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau