Storm Warning 33, NWS Juneau, AK

365 
FZAK67 PAJK 061230
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-070630-
330 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force front over the eastern gulf will begin to weaken
and shift to the south late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong
high pressure will persist across northwest Canada. 

$$

PKZ310-070630-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
330 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 50 kt. Seas 15 ft building to
19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
16 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

517 
FZAK67 PAJK 070037
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-071845-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force front over the eastern gulf will begin to weaken
and shift to the south late tonight into Tuesday. Strong high
pressure remains across northwest Canada.  

$$

PKZ310-071845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
337 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing late. Seas 20 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
16 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SE swell. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

777 
FZAK67 PAJK 071304
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-080715-
404 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
The front over the southeastern gulf continues to weaken and
shift to the south through Tuesday. Strong high pressure remains
across northwest Canada.  

$$

PKZ310-080715-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
404 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm force front will move into the eastern gulf
Sunday night and remain through Monday night. Strong high pressure
will persist across northwest Canada. Colder air trapped ahead of
the system may result in a narrow band of very light snow
accumulation in the central Panhandle and near Hyder, some of the
first lowland snow of the season.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Storm force front inducing 50 kt winds across the
gulf and in northern Lynn Canal still looks reasonable. Great
model agreement and a solid forecast have allowed us to
concentrate on future questions that have not been fully resolved
yet Monday night into Tuesday night, most notably rain/snow line.

Looking at the structure of the storm, we feel strongly that the
tight gradient and warm air aloft will keep temperatures from
falling too much on Monday night. We have warmed lows during this
time and drawn the rain/snow line northward from previous. As we
have discussed for several shifts, our consensus is that the best
chances for frozen precipitation are where we are least confident
that precipitation falls at all. However, we do acknowledge that
there may be a band of snow on the northern extent of the
precipitation where the colder air is too entrenched to scour out
too quickly. Tenakee looks to be one such spot where an inch could
fall, but potentially Angoon and somewhere along Frederick Sound,
mainly Monday night. Given stronger outflow winds at Hyder, we
feel that it will be the big winner with a good 3 inches Monday
night once the highest lift enters the area.

Early changes include limiting wind acceleration in the north
until 6 AM, and we therefore lowered temperatures overnight
tonight by 5 degrees or so. While we understand the advancing
cloud cover, the very low drops on Sunday morning into the teens
in some places, demanded that we consider mid to upper 20s in some
areas, thus honoring the power of the current air mass.

Strong wind headlines were extended beyond Monday afternoon, where
confidence was high that we will experience them beyond. Given a
few non-events, or over-forecasted ones, we interrogated Downtown
Juneau winds a little longer. Given 925 mb northeasterlies do not
rise until Monday night in the least, we do not think mountain
wave/outflow winds make a significant appearance until Monday
night/Tuesday. So we do not have strong wind headlines for zone
25. Also, mountain wave ingredients come together only on Tuesday
morning.

NAM/GFS was used for any edits and MOS tonight for wind delays.
Forecast confidence moderate.

.LONG TERM... Tuesday through Sunday... A progressive high
amplitude flow pattern aloft will bring a variety of weather
conditions to SEAK this coming week. After the incoming strong
storm system moves south of the Panhandle by mid week we can
expect another round of cool dry weather and locally strong N
winds Wed-Thu. Global models indicate the next chance of rain
will arrive about Fri or Fri night.

The northern branch of the polar jetstream on Tues is forecast to
outline broad upper troughs west of AK and and near Hudson Bay
Canada. In between these troughs a sharp upper level ridge axis
will extend N-S through the interior of AK and W Canada. The
strong low pressure surface and aloft trying to move S past SEAK
Tues is essentially cut off from the steering flow aloft and will
be slow to move S well off the BC coast around 145W. This leaves
SEAK in a N-S pressure gradient pattern which will push more cool
dry air S through the inner channels mid week. Min temps could
fall to at or below 20F Wed and Thurs mornings from roughly Icy
Strait and Juneau north to the border including Yakutat. N-S
aligned water ways like Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay may experience
40 kt winds mid week. Blowing snow may affect driving conds over
White Pass. Temps and winds will moderate farther south.

Longer range forecast models indicate the upper ridging could
persist over W AK and the Bering late this week. This would result
in NW flow aloft across the interior, over the N gulf and into
SEAK again. A new upper level short wave and associated surface
weather front is predicted to ride along this NW flow into the E
Gulf AK Fri and Fri night. The upper trough would cause winds to
change from the dry northerly direction to a somewhat more moist
west direction. The extended forecast for Fri was updated using
the GFS model to show more cloud cover and increasing chance of
rain/mtn snow starting Fri. The latest models also indicate the
track of this system on Fri may stay far enough offshore in the E
Gulf so as to not produce significant precip.

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-033-041-042-051-052.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     AKZ026-028.
     Strong Wind from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-022-033-035-036-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-053.

&&

JWA/TA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
237 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2017

AKZ017>029-062345-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
237 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2017

...STRONG AUTUMN STORM TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A storm force low will enter the eastern Gulf of Alaska tonight
with peak winds occurring over the coastal marine zones late
Monday afternoon. As marine winds over the gulf begin to diminish,
winds over the inner channels will still be increasing through
Monday evening. Wide spread gales will impact the inner channels
through Monday night with storm force northerlies over northern
Lynn Canal lasting through most of the night. Marine winds on the
inside and outside are forecast to slowly diminish from Tuesday
morning through Wednesday morning. The exception will be northern
Lynn Canal, where gale force northerly winds persist through
Wednesday night.

Strong winds with gusts between 40 and 50 mph are also forecast
for numerous land areas across the panhandle. Expect winds to
increase first along the southern half of the outer coast and
south of Frederick Sound on the inside Monday afternoon, then expand
north through Tuesday afternoon.

Cold surface air temperatures will result in the first snowfall of
the season for much of the panhandle. Most likely areas for
accumulating snow near sea level will be between Icy Strait and
Frederick Sound on Monday night. Visibilities will be reduced in
blowing snow.

All modes of travel will be adversely impacted by this wind
event. Moored vessels and aircraft tied down outdoors will be
particularly vulnerable. Additionally, loose objects will be blown
around by strong, gusty winds.