Storm Warning 32, NWS Juneau, AK

252 
FZAK52 PAJK 211148
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 AM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-220600-
348 AM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front will move northward into the southeast gulf
today and begin to weaken. Its parent low will  move into the
southeast gulf and then slowly drift toward Baranof Island
through Sunday.   

$$

PKZ041-220600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
348 AM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain early in the
morning, then rain and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-220600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
348 AM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 45 kt in the morning, then
becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-220600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
348 AM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to
15 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
Showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-220600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
348 AM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell
early in the morning. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-220600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
348 AM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SE swell. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SE swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

233 
FZAK52 PAJK 212019 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1219 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221430-
1219 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force front will move northward into the southeast gulf
today and begin to weaken. Its parent low will  move into the
southeast gulf and then slowly drift toward Baranof Island
through Sunday.   

$$

PKZ041-221430-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
1219 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-221430-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
1219 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-221430-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
1219 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
Showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-221430-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
1219 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-221430-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
1219 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SE swell. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SE swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
244 PM AKDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A high pressure ridge briefly built over the
Panhandle today. A strong front will move northward tonight and
move into the southeast gulf by Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure system and associated front will
move into the gulf tonight. Winds will increase tonight and
Saturday as the low pressure system moves into the eastern gulf
and the front approaches the panhandle. A storm warning will be in
effect for marine zone 41 Saturday. Gale warnings will be in
effect for marine zone 43 on Saturday and marine zone 42 late
tonight through Saturday and marine zone 310 tonight through
Saturday. A gale warning will also be in effect Saturday for
Sumner Strait and Clarence Strait. The approaching front will
increase rain showers across the panhandle tonight and Saturday.
Snow will occur near white pass with snow levels there near 1100
feet. Rain showers will continue at times across most of the
panhandle through most of this next week. Temperatures will
continue cool through this next week. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF
models were in fairly good agreement and used for the short term
forecast. Changes were made to the location of the low pressure
system in the eastern gulf Sunday and Sunday evening primarily
based on the GFS and ECMWF models.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/ Models still struggling with
weekend system so basically left Sun and Sun night forecast as is.
For Mon onward, did use latest WPC for the most part. Looking more
likely that another low will move across the area Mon into early
Tue, but models differ on track and strength. WPC seemed like a
good compromise. Later in the week, large system will likely
affect the area for mid to late week. Still some low track details
to work out with this system. This system will most likely have
remnants of Typhoon Lan embedded, which increases potential for a
powerful storm. Overall, a wet long range period is in store for
the area.

System moving in Mon into early Tue may bring some fairly heavy
rain and strong winds with it to the S of the main low track.
Another concern with this system is potential for a snowmelt
cooling event in the deformation zone to N of low track Mon night
into early Tue. Still plenty of time for these issues to be
resolved.

The mid to late week system looks very wet and windy given
infusion of tropical moisture/energy. Evolution of sfc low
development will play a big role in where and when heaviest rain
and strongest wind will occur. Models have been all over the place
on this so confidence in the details remains on the low side.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041.
     Gale Warning for PKZ035-036-042-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-032>034-051-052.

&&

BM/RWT

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