Storm Warning 18, NWS Juneau, AK

324 
FZAK52 PAJK 030022
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
322 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-031830-
322 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NW CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TO THE DISTANT SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND GULF.  

$$

PKZ041-031830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
322 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-031830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
322 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-031830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
322 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 50 KT SUBSIDING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-031830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
322 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT 
OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO
7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-031830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
322 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

299 
FZAK52 PAJK 031212
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-040615-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NW CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND GULF.  

$$

PKZ041-040615-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-040615-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-040615-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-040615-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-040615-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 PM AKST Wed Feb 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...An upper level ridge of high pressure is the driving
force for high clouds across the region today. Most places this
cirrus is thin enough for sunshine to get through for a partly
cloudy feel, while the far northern panhandle is a little
thicker, but still a fair weather day. At the surface an inverted
trough has formed along the inner channels while high pressure
builds of the Yukon. Both of these features will strengthen over
the next 24+ hours for a tighter northerly pressure gradient.
Winds have picked up a few hours earlier than expected through
northern Lynn Canal. Skagway has already gusted to 40mph this
afternoon and expect that to continue or increase slightly
tomorrow. By late tonight downtown Juneau will likely have gusts
to 40mph and 60mph gusts are possible tomorrow afternoon. A
similar increasing trend can be expected through the inside waters
with higher gusts out of interior passes and nearby land areas.

Increased wind speeds through tomorrow and extended them further
south through the inside waters based on the increased trend we've
already seen. Used high-res models to bump those up, then adjusted
gusts up further for select locations.

Other big change was to adjust max/min temperatures down. CAA is
already starting and will be stronger tomorrow. Don't expect too
much heating from the short number of daylight hours. Went below
MOS guidance and used more of what we've seen today for starting
values then adjusted wind sheltered locations down and windy spots
up to have about a 10 degree difference for lows. Forecast
confidence is above average.

.LONG TERM...Strong cold air outflow remains the primary concern
for the long range period. Gale force winds expected in many of
the northern inner channels and northern gulf starting Thu night
and continuing into the weekend. Some areas of min storm force are
also possible particularly for Lynn Canal and out of Cross Sound.
Another Taku wind event is also possible for the downtown Juneau
and Douglas areas starting Thu night and continuing into Sat.
Cross barrier flow will be increasing to around 60 to 70 kt with a
noticeable inversion present from the cold air streaming into the
area. The critical level is a little questionable due to the
absence of directional shear aloft. However, there is a level of
speed shear (lower speeds) at around 600 to 700 mb that should be
enough of a critical level to produce the mountain wave. High wind
watch continues for the Juneau area from late Thursday afternoon
to Saturday afternoon.

Into early next week the outflow winds will be diminishing but the
dry weather will persist. The blocking upper ridge to our west
will be retrograding on Monday while a cut off upper low will sit
SW of Haida Gwaii. The panhandle will be stuck under offshore flow
into at least mid week. At that point a trough from the north and
a ridge from the south will reestablish onshore flow over the
area. the question is whether this pattern shift will be enough to
draw a front north into the panhandle by late next week. For now
forecast confidence is rather low so kept chance pops and mostly
cloudy skies for the mid to late next week period.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind through Thursday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-022-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-031>034-042.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041.
&&

Ferrin/EAL

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