Storm Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

132 
FZAK67 PAJK 111242
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
342 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-120100-
342 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST GULF EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT ON SATURDAY EVENING. 

$$

PKZ310-120100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
342 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. S
SWELL LATE.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

198 
FZAK67 PAJK 120004
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-121815-
304 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY
NIGHT. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY.

$$

PKZ310-121815-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
304 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...STORM WARNING EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18
FT. S SWELL. RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

148 
FZAK67 PAJK 121311
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130715-
411 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTHERN KODIAK
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-130715-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
411 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
S SWELL EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
626 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...The current satellite imagery shows snow showers
moving onshore as a upper level trof drifts east over the
forecast area. This trof will be over Canada by tonight as a
upper ridge builds over the area from the south. There was not
many changes in the short term forecast this morning. Advisory
level snow still looks good across the area with the snow mixing
with rain over the coastal and southern areas this afternoon. The
central and northern inner channels will see steady light snow
with periods of heavy showers. There is also a chance that some
areas will see training of cells to produce higher snow amounts.
Satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops over the gulf and with
the upper level dynamics associated with the upper trof it will
enhance the snow showers. Amounts will range from 5 to 10 inches
with locally higher amounts before mixing with rain overnight.

The winter storm watch for the far northern areas has been
cancelled for the Haines area but the Skagway area is now under a
high wind watch at lower elevations and Blizzard warning for
elevations about 2000 feet. See long term for more information on
this.

The surface trof will increase the winds in e/w channels this
morning but they will decrease and back around to the west as the
trof drifts east. The southern inner channels will see an increase
by the afternoon with the gradient tightening. The winds over the
gulf will remain 25 to 30 kt from the west through this afternoon
but will veer to the southwest through tonight as a wave begins to
lift out of the North Pacific.

The inner channels will see an increase in the winds through
tonight as the surface ridge builds from south to north. By late
tonight there will be a southerly push with widespread small
crafts and gusty land winds. The strongest land winds will over
the far northern inner channels with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

There is significant warm air associated with the ridge so
through tonight areas with snow will see a change over to rain.
The only exception to that will be the Haines and Skagway area.
They will see snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches before they too
mix with rain by Saturday morning.

Overall there is about average forecaster confidence.

.LONG TERM...A deepening low will move NE to the NE gulf by late
Sat afternoon. Trailing occluded front will move slowly onshore
Sat afternoon through Sat night. More systems will move into the
gulf for much of next week, but models differ somewhat on track of
main low centers. Most forecast adjustments were made through Sun
night using the 00z GFS for pressures/winds, with some SREF
blended in for POPs. Used 06z NAM to handle QPF as it was fairly
close to GFS.

Strong system will bring much warmer air N into the area Sat with
most places near sea level warming into the 40s. Expect any snow
near sea level over the north to change to rain by late morning,
even in the normally colder areas as strong southerly winds will
wipe out cold air fairly quickly. Widespread gale to storm force
winds are expected ahead of the front Sat into Sat night. Have
issued high wind watches for zones 27 and 28 as well as below 2000
feet of zone 18 for Sat afternoon and/or Sat evening/night. Above
2000 feet in zone 18, should remain cold enough for all snow and
it will be heavy and blown around by strong winds. This will cause
blizzard conditions near White Pass Sat into Sat evening, so
issued a blizzard warning for zone 18 above 2000 feet for that
time frame. Otherwise, heavy rain is expected with strong deep
layer S-SW flow and abnormally high precip water values ahead of
the front. Rainfall could exceed 2 inches over most of the area
Sat and Sat night.

MAy see transition to showers later Sat night over mainly the N
half of the area. Models have trended cooler behind the front over
the N and this may allow some of the showers to be mainly snow.
This cooldown will be brief though as next system will help pump
up strong upper ridge and bring much warmer air into the area by
Sun night or Mon morning. Looking like another round of heavy rain
and strong wind, but exact timing and areal extent of this is
still up in the air due to the model differences handling main
low centers and fronts.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ017-022-
     024-026.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
     AKZ025-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ023-027-028.
     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
     AKZ022-024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ020-021-
     025.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
     AKZ020-021.
     High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday
     night for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
     AKZ029.
     Strong Wind from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for AKZ019.
     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for AKZ018.
     Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Saturday to midnight AKST Saturday
     night for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-
     052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

ABJ/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
925 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             HOLLIS                  55.48N 132.67W
02/10/2017  M2.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED AT HOLLIS COOP STATION.

0800 AM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
02/10/2017  M3.6 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED AT HAINES COOP STATION.

0800 AM     SNOW             11 NW KETCHIKAN         55.45N 131.84W
02/10/2017  M2.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2 INCH OF SNOW SINCE AROUND 6 AM.

0800 AM     SNOW             MUD BAY                 59.15N 135.37W
02/10/2017  E2.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED SNOW FALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AT MUD BAY.

0900 AM     SNOW             YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/10/2017  M8.2 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE WSO IN YAKUTAT REPORTED 8.2 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 3 PM
            THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

0908 AM     SNOW             ANNETTE                 55.04N 131.59W
02/10/2017  M2.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SNOW FELL IN TWO HOURS. CURRENTLY SNOWING HEAVILY WITH
            NEAR 0 VISIBILITY.

&&

EAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1238 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     SNOW             SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
02/10/2017  M2.0 INCH                           AK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SITKA. ROADS ARE SLICK.

0943 AM     SNOW             KLAWOCK                 55.55N 133.09W
02/10/2017  U2.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN KLAWOCK FROM THE DOT.

1020 AM     SNOW             KETCHIKAN               55.34N 131.65W
02/10/2017  E4.0 INCH                           AK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED IN PARTS OF KETCHIKAN SO
            FAR.

1100 AM     SNOW             MUD BAY                 59.15N 135.37W
02/10/2017  M6.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SO FAR AT MUD BAY. 1 INCH OF THAT FELL IN THE LAST
            HOUR.

1200 PM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
02/10/2017  E6.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            FROM DOT. 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM HAINES TO MILE 10 OF THE
            HAINES HIGHWAY. 3 TO 4 INCHES ON THE REST OF THE HIGHWAY.
            HEAVY SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY.

1220 PM     SNOW             PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
02/10/2017  M4.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            4.5 INCHES SINCE 8 AM AT PELICAN.

&&

EAL