Storm Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

984 
FZAK52 PAJK 260007
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
307 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-261815-
307 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INLAND ON THURSDAY. A SECOND STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-261815-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
307 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT LATE.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S STORM FORCE WIND TO
50 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-261815-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
307 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS
TO 60 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE TO 50 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT. 
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-261815-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
307 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS
TO 60 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 45 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 
KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-261815-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
307 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 60 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN
RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-261815-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
307 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 50 KT. GUSTS
TO 65 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

167 
FZAK52 PAJK 261251
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270700-
351 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY. A SECOND STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUTLOOK. A THIRD LOW
WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-270700-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
351 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN, THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN, THEN SHOWERS 
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-270700-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
351 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 20 
FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN 
BECOMING S 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN, THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-270700-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
351 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE MORNING, THEN 
BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 
20 FT. RAIN, THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND IN THE MORNING. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN, THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-270700-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
351 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN, THEN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT 
LATE. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE 
EVENING, THEN RAIN. 
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 70 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-270700-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
351 AM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 45 KT IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

445 
FZAK52 PAJK 270016
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-271830-
316 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SECOND STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-271830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
316 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. 
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-271830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
316 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT RISING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-271830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
316 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS
19 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING...THEN RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 70 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS
18 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-271830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
316 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT
LATE. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 75 KT DECREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-271830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
316 PM AKST THU JAN 26 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE 
MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...A gale force low lies situated over the eastern gulf
as of this afternoon. As with yesterday's front, this one is
advecting more low level warm air over the panhandle from the
south. Snow level is already sufficiently high enough that
precipitation in the form of snow almost entirely limited to
higher elevations of the Haines and Klondike Highways. Winter
weather advisory for Haines and warning for Skagway remain in
effect, as QPF values for the present front are quite high. New
snow today is 3 inches at Haines Customs near the border and 5
inches at Skagway customs. PoP and QPF forecast for Tuesday night
unchanged. Updated Wednesday Using SREF, Canadian NH, and NAMDNG5
for PoP. QPF a blend of existing grids plus NAMDNG5.

Suspect overnight lows will occur early on, with temperatures
steady or slowly rising through the night. Main adjustments to
temperatures were to raise low for tonight up to afternoon values
being reported. Used primarily GFS MOS plus a little NAM MOS for
these adjustments.

Main changes to wind grids were to decrease wind speeds by 2 to 5
kts across the domain while preserving existing wind directions.
Even so, Have strong wind headlines for the central and southern
outer coast for this evening. Likewise for Haines and Juneau. Have
been waiting for a hint of wind at Skagway all day long. Reduced
those winds significantly as a result of calm wind obs all day.
Wind there finally picked up to about 15 mph by mid afternoon,
which is within the current forecast. However, this location will
need to be watched closely, since winds in Skagway are notorious
for changing abruptly and dramatically.

Overall forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Overall pattern remains warm and wet through at least
the weekend as an upper trough over the Bering Sea and a ridge
over western Canada remains in place. The panhandle is stuck in
the SW flow in between them with the Pacific storm track aimed
right at us.

Between Wed night and next weekend, there will be at least 3
separate strong fronts that will be targeting the area. The first
will be moving into the area from the SW on Thu bringing more
wind and rain. Gale force winds are expected for a large part of
the gulf and parts of the inner channels as the front moves
through. Gusts to 40 or 45 mph for land areas is also not out of
the question. Also with the strong warm air advection and many
areas already above freezing, ptype will remain rain for just
about everyone except for the higher elevations of the Klondike
and Haines Highways. Potential for another heavy snow event for
White Pass is there, though even there the strong warm air
advection could even make White pass warm up above freezing.

System number two comes up from the south for Thu night and this
one is looking like it will be the strongest of the bunch so far.
Long range models have gotten better at handling this system in
the last few runs though some issues remain. What is looking more
and more certain is that it will be a wind generator. 850 mb winds
over the southern panhandle Thu night are suggested to be around
75 to 80 kt which would likely result in gusts to 60 mph or more
at ground level. Kept winds a little lower than that at the moment
as models are just starting to settle on this system in the last
run or two. On the precip end, more strong warm air advection will
mean more rain for many areas.

System number three shows up Fri night right on the heels of the
Thu night system. Forecast confidence is terrible for this third
system with poor model agreement and run to run consistency. The
Models are insisting that there will be a system somewhere in the
eastern gulf Fri night but track and timing is up in the air.
Settled more on an ensemble approach to this system which has a
weaker low more toward the central gulf at the moment but with the
uncertainly later forecasts could trend closer to the outer coast
possibly resulting in higher winds. In any case, it appears that
this will be another strong system with another round of gale
force winds, warm air advection, and rain.

Into the late weekend and early next week operational and ensemble
models are showing increasing confidence on a drying and cooling
trend for the area as an upper ridge builds over the gulf and a
cooler air mass advances on the panhandle from the west. Timing is
an issue with the Gfs bringing the cold air in as early as Sat
night while the Canadian waits until Sun night. Decided to cool
temps down for next week and introduced some mentions of snow
toward the end of the weekend before the precip shuts off by
Monday. Used mainly WPC for extended periods.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031>034-036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-035-052-053.
&&

Fritsch/EAL

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