Small Craft Advisory 94, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 PM AKST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing low center
near Kodiak Island with two frontal bands impacting SE AK. The
first is currently moving over the panhandle producing areas of
strong winds and periods of heavy rain. The second occluded front
is moving into the eastern gulf this evening and then will cross
over the panhandle through Tuesday. This front will move in
another round of strong winds and periods of heavy rain. Wave
development along the front will track northward over the central
AK Gulf through Tuesday. There is currently a brief lull in winds
over the AK gulf before southerly storm force winds develop this
evening and into late tonight. Panhandle winds will subside
slightly later this evening but once again increase through late
tonight. Winds over the far northern panhandle, currently
resulting more from pressure gradient, will drop by late tonight
as the gradient shifts from a north-south orientation to more
east-west. Rain will also subside this evening, especially over
the southern regions, but with more heavy rain bands pushing in
along the next front. Rainfall amounts upwards of an inch or more
are expected through Tuesday. Temperatures warmed significantly
overnight, rising into the mid 40 to low 50s. Warm air mass at 850
mb will stay over the area tonight then cool slightly. Surface
temperatures will remain high through the evening then begin a
slow drop into tomorrow night. Only areas expected to get snow are
at very high elevations, such as White Pass, but they are already
getting a mix of snow and rain. Keeping winter weather advisory
for White Pass through Tuesday morning as temps will drop again
with an additional 3 to 9 inches of snow possible.

Kept with NAM as main model choice using some Hi-Res to make any
minor adjustment. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Active weather continues into the extended range with
another wave of low pressure quickly moving into the central gulf
early Wednesday. The low will then pull back to the northwest and
move inland near Anchorage later Wednesday morning. The associated
front will push over the panhandle Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. There still are some differences with the structure of
this system, but models are in general agreement. With the low
expected to remain far to the west, expect less of a wind impact
with this system. Southerly flow will keep snow chances confined
to the higher elevations until Wednesday night when some snow
could mix in at sea level with CAA occurring. Weather will quiet
down substantially after mid week with a weaker flow regime over
the area and diminishing precipitation chances. Temperatures will
gradually cool through the period. Latest ensembles and CPC
guidance indicate an increased threat for below normal
temperatures into the 6-10 day period as well as below normal
precipitation.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday morning for AKZ022-023.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday evening for AKZ028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043-051.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-034>036-052-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031>033.
&&

PRB/TPS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 N HAINES              59.30N 135.44W
02/11/2017  U0.0 INCH                           AK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HEAVY SNOW AND WIND DOWNED TREE THAT CUT POWER LINES TO
            LUTAK ROAD. EIGHTY-SEVEN CUSTOMERS LOST POWER FOR NEARLY
            24 HOURS.

0100 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
02/12/2017  U0.0 INCH                           AK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HEAVY SNOW SANK 38 FOOT-LONG BOAT IN HAINES PORTAGE COVE
            HARBOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

JWA