Small Craft Advisory 92, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
618 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...The latest satellite imagery shows a weakening low
pressure system over the forecast area drifting east into Canada.
There is also another warm frontal system lifting out of the
North Pacific and into the Southern Gulf of Alaska this morning.
This warm front will move into the northeast gulf by late tonight.

The panhandle will see a much different type of day today from
yesterday. The area will be between weather systems with most of
the strong winds diminishing from north to south this morning
with the far northern areas and southern areas still seeing strong
wind gusts of 40 mph. These winds will diminish through the
morning as the pressure gradient relax with the departing low.
Along with the diminishing winds the heavy rain at sea level and
snow in the mountains will become more convective to be scattered
to numerous rain showers, with mixed snow/rain showers over the
northeastern gulf and the far northern inner channels. Amounts
will be minimal.

The marine winds over the inner channels will also relax through
today to be generally less than 20 kt but they will increase again
through tonight to small craft levels and near gales over the
eastern gulf.

The warm front that will affect Southeast Alaska tonight will
move over the forecast area late this afternoon and spread north
through tonight. The precip will become heavy at times by late
tonight over the northern half of the area. The northern gulf gulf
coast area including the Yakutat area will see the precip start
off at snow with cooler being drawn in through today and the winds
remaining from the east. So with that said, we issued a winter
weather advisory for this evening with 3 to 5 inches of snow
expected. The snow will switch over to heavy rain as strong
southeasterly winds associated with the warm front move over the
area with wind gusts to 40 mph late tonight. The far northern
inner channels may see some rain and snow also this evening but
the amounts will be less with less QPF in the short term period.
The upper portions of the Klondike highway may see 2 to 3 inches
above 1000 feet.

Overall there is average forecaster confidence in the short term
period. The 12z EC initialized very well with the departing and
approaching low features and was the preferred model for any
changes that were made.

.LONG TERM...Upper ridge will be building just E of the area Mon
into Mon night. Low pressure will move N to near Kodiak Island
Mon. Occluded front over the central gulf will waver E-W Mon into
Tue as one or more low pressure waves move along it. Models
continue to struggle with these waves, so confidence in timing of
them is low at this point. There will be a minor shortwave moving
NNE across the Panhandle Mon with warm front moving across the
area during that time. Looking like front over the gulf will
finally be able to move E across SE AK around midweek. After
midweek looks like main storm track will stay well S of the area
into the weekend, but will need to watch for smaller systems
associated with upper low/trof over SW AK.

Rain should increase over most of the area Mon morning with both
the occluded front over the gulf and warm front moving through SE
AK. Once warm front moves NE of the area, precip may diminish to
some degree over the southern 2/3rds of the panhandle by Mon
evening. Will see gale force winds with the occluded front over
the gulf, and some of the inner channels may also get near gale
force with warm front Mon. Looking like a warmer system than this
past one so by daybreak Mon, pretty much entire area near sea
level should be rain. White Pass may stay cold enough for snow
though, and several inches are possible especially Mon afternoon.

As occluded front moves in toward midweek, rain will increase
again over main part of the panhandle. Exact timing of this
remains in doubt though due to the model differences handling the
waves moving along the front. After midweek though, looking like
precip will diminish as main storm track shifts S, but still some
minor trofs could affect the area and looking like onshore flow
into Fri so keeping at least chance POPs going. Should be a bit
cooler as well which could allow for a little snow at times
especially over the NW half of the area.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ019-028.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ029.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST
     tonight for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036.
&&

ABJ/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
325 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     BLIZZARD         15 NE SKAGWAY           59.63N 135.03W
02/11/2017                   XXX                XX   OTHER FEDERAL

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR WHITE PASS, AND ROAD CLOSED
            THROUGH PASS CLOSED DUE TO POTENTIAL AVALANCHE CONCERNS

0430 PM     HEAVY SNOW       6 S HAINES              59.15N 135.44W
02/11/2017  M16.0 INCH       PKZ012             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SNOW FOR THE EVENT.

0900 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
02/11/2017  M7.7 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            7.7 INCHES OF SNOW 8 AM TO 9 PM. TOTAL STORM EVENT 13.9

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
02/12/2017  M3.39 INCH                          AK   ASOS

            3.39 INCHES IS A NEW DAILY RAINFALL RECORD

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/12/2017  M2.28 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2.28 INCHES AT NWS FORECAST OFFICE, DAILY PRECIP TOTAL

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/12/2017  M1.86 INCH                          AK   ASOS

            1.86 INCHES IS A NEW DAILY RECORD

&&

BMB

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