Small Craft Advisory 609, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

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.SHORT TERM...Rain showers across nearly all of the Panhandle
continues as of this afternoon, but are winding down now. Snow
advisory for the Haines and Klondike Highways was extended to
noon, but then allowed to expire as snowfall rates diminished. At
least 4 inches of snow was reported at White Pass and a 24 hour
total of over 9 inches was reported by COOP observers along the
Haines Highway. Strong winds continue in Skagway, but have
relaxed elsewhere over land. Small craft advisories remain in
place for the inner channels and there are gale warnings for
portions of the eastern gulf as another low makes its way into the
gulf from the south tonight.

Widespread lightning has been detected through the day over the
gulf and then over the outer coast as of late this morning.
Thunderstorms have penetrated as far inland as the west end of
Tenakee Inlet and Brady Glacier. Have included isolated
thunderstorms for the central and northern coastal zones for at
least this evening. A short wave oriented north-south east of 140W
is making its way northeastward and may result in additional
thunderstorms over the coastal areas beyond this evening, so the
evening shift may need to update this aspect of the forecast.

No other changes made to the existing forecast. Overall forecast
confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 930 pm Tuesday/ The
extended forecast remains wet and warm. Friday begins with
diminishing showers over the panhandle associated with the
remnants of a weather front. At the same time a low pressure
center will pass south of Haida Gwaii. This brings a chance of
rain into the forecast for the far southern panhandle. Models have
trended this feature further south, which will limit its
influence on the Panhandle.

Between late Saturday and Sunday another round of precipitation
passes into the panhandle associated with an upper level shortwave
trough. However, the next considerable front doesn't affect the
Panhandle until late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
While the initial precipitation associated with the front may
begin as snow, it is expected to become primarily rain as
temperatures at the surface remain above freezing during the
daytime hours.

Most significant changes to the forecast were made on Friday with
POPs being diminished across the Panhandle due to the low passing
further south of Haida Gwaii. Primary Guidance was a blend of the
NAM and GFS for Friday with little change beyond that timeframe.

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.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

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Fritsch/Byrd

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