Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
410 PM AKST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Snow from this morning ranged from around 1 to 2
inches around Icy Strait to up to 8.5 inches at Mud Bay near
Haines. By late morning most areas have changed over to rain
except for around Petersburg, Wrangell, Haines, and Skagway.

For tonight into tomorrow, a gale force front will be advancing
across the gulf before stalling along the outer coast tomorrow.
Precip will also be beginning to spread across the area as well.
Yakutat will likely start seeing some snow develop this evening
with the possibility of around 4 to 6 inches of accumulation
through late tonight. For the inner channels a warm front will be
lifting north ahead of the main front on Tue spreading precip as
it goes. Most areas are likely to remain warm enough for rain but
the Haines and Skagway area should be cold enough for snow with
light winds. It was decided to issue a winter weather advisory
for both areas starting Tuesday morning as snow amounts will
likely amount to 4 to 6 inches especially along the highways.

Winds will be the other issue with gale force winds likely in the
gulf and gusty winds along the outer coast. No strong wind
headlines at this time but gusts to 30 or 35 mph are possible.

Used mainly Nam for guidance for the short range.

.LONG TERM...Long range pattern remains warm and wet for at least
the next week as a trough over the Bering Sea and a ridge over
western Canada continues to provide SW flow into the area. Between
now and next weekend at least 4 front will be taking aim at the
panhandle. Front one is the front that stalled over the outer
coast in the short term that will resume its eastward march
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Expect more rain and wind as this
front moves through the area, and more snow for the Haines and
Klondike Highways as well. Decided to extend the winter weather
advisories for Haines and Skagway into Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning as while the towns will likely change over to rain
Tuesday night the higher elevations will likely stay snow through
most of the event. The White Pass area has the potential for some
decent snow accumulations but uncertainty in qpf and temperature
values over that area lead me to be much more certain of an
advisory event rather then a warning event at this time. Into
Wednesday and Thursday the front again stalls over the southern
panhandle with rain continuing there while showers prevail for the
rest of the area.

Front number two approaches on Thursday with more rain and wind.
Expecting wide spread gales over the gulf out of this front on
Thursday with gusty winds expected over the panhandle as the front
comes in. More warm southerly flow also expected so precip for
most places will be in the form of rain except for possibly the
extreme northern panhandle.

Fronts three and four show up one after the other Thursday night
into Friday night. These two are coming from the south rather then
the SW. Some model disagreement on timing and structure of these
two system so the details are still up in the air but most models
do agree on a very wet late week into the weekend period.

Into the far extended, there are indications of a possible dry
period next week as a cold high moves into the Yukon but only a
few models are actually indicating this with others continuing
the warm and wet pattern. So the extended forecast past the
weekend is rather uncertain with chance pops and mostly cloudy
prevailing.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 9 AM AKST Wednesday
     for AKZ018-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-031>036-053.
&&

Fritsch/EAL

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