Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
519 AM AKST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Snow continues to fall across Northern Lynn Canal
over night. While a mix extends to near the Icy Strait-Juneau
corridor early Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on the snow for
the moment however initial thinking is to expire the advisory and
warning in effect.

The remains of the low and trough moving in across the panhandle
will lower pops down to chance levels essentially for this afternoon
into this evening. The eastern half of the Gulf of Alaska is under
low topped showers from colder air streaming in from Southwest
Alaska. Satellite data reveals a weak circulation near the west edge
of the cloud shield in the gulf which will move east towards the
northern panhandle Thursday evening. Believe any accumulations from
the showers will be minor as they move inland through this evening.

.LONG TERM...Upper trof will move NE of the area Fri morning.
Confluent flow aloft will help build high pressure over the Yukon
into the northern panhandle Fri and this will last into Sat.
A weak low and front will move N into the gulf Sat night and Sun.
After that, looking more active as large scale upper troffing is
established over the E Pac by midweek.

For Fri-Sat, as high builds some to the N, colder air will filter
in. This will help increase N winds especially over the N half of
the area. Looking like gale force winds are likely over the N
third of the inner channels especially Lynn Canal and Stephens
Passage beginning Fri. Should have SCA level N winds reach all
but the far southern area by Fri evening. Locally in the Juneau
area, threat for Taku winds will be on the increase especially Fri
night and Sat. NAM is the most aggressive with the cold air
moving in and has strongest cross barrier flow. Critical level and
inversion look excellent with flow aloft in mid-levels becoming
SW during Fri night. It will depend mostly on strength of cross
barrier flow to determine how strong winds will be. Due to some
uncertainty on that, will not put out any wind headlines for the
Juneau area attm.

Clouds will spread N later Sat and Sat night ahead of next low and
front. Looking like best precip threat may be over the gulf
although this will depend on strength of an upper trof moving in
from the W Sun and Sun night which may push precip inland. Should
see moderating trend with temps next week as increasing deep layer
SW flow becomes established. Later shifts may need to adjust some
temps upward especially after Mon.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST early this morning for
     AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST early this morning for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-021-022-031-033>035-
041>043-     051-052.      Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for
PKZ053. &&

Bezenek/RWT

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