Small Craft Advisory 331, NWS Juneau, AK

478 
FZAK52 PAJK 121144
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 AM AKDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-130545-
344 AM AKDT Mon Jun 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface ridge of high pressure persists across the  eastern
gulf and Panhandle through Monday. An area of low  pressure will
move E into the central gulf through Tuesday.  

$$

PKZ041-130545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
344 AM AKDT Mon Jun 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 KT. Seas 8 FT subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. W swell.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 KT. Seas 6 FT. W swell. 
.TUE...S wind 20 KT. Seas 7 FT. W swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 KT. Seas 7 FT. W swell. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 KT. Seas 7 FT. 
.THU...SE wind 15 KT becoming W. Seas 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 KT. Seas 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-130545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
344 AM AKDT Mon Jun 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 KT. Seas 8 FT subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 KT. Seas 6 FT. W swell. 
.TUE...S wind 20 KT. Seas 7 FT. SW swell. Showers in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 KT. Seas 7 FT. SW swell. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 KT. Seas 7 FT. 
.THU...SE wind 15 KT becoming W. Seas 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 KT. Seas 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-130545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
344 AM AKDT Mon Jun 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 KT. Seas 8 FT subsiding to 7 ft in the 
afternoon. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 KT. Seas 7 FT. SW swell. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 KT. Seas 7 FT. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 KT. Seas 7 FT. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 15 KT. Seas 7 FT. 
.THU...E wind 15 KT becoming light. Seas 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 KT. Seas 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-130545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
344 AM AKDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 KT. Seas 7 FT. SW swell. Showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 KT. Seas 6 FT. SW swell in the evening. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 KT. Seas 6 FT. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 KT. Seas 6 FT. SW swell. 
.WED...E wind 10 KT. Seas 6 FT. 
.THU...E wind 10 KT becoming W. Seas 4 FT. 
.FRI...W wind 10 KT. Seas 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-130545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
344 AM AKDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 KT early in the morning becoming light.
Seas 6 FT. SW swell early in the morning. Showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 KT. Seas 6 FT. SW swell in the evening. 
.TUE...E wind 15 KT. Seas 6 FT. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 KT. Seas 6 FT. SW swell. 
.WED...E wind 10 KT. Seas 6 FT. 
.THU...W wind 15 KT. Seas 4 FT. 
.FRI...W wind 10 KT. Seas 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
230 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A broad surface ridge continues over the eastern Gulf
of Alaska and Southeast Alaska. A thermal low pressure trough
extends from central British Columbia through the Yukon to the
eastern Alaskan interior persists. A complex area of low pressure
is positioned over the eastern Aleutian Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ Sunday night through Tuesday night / The low near
the eastern Aleutians will move east as it consolidates into a
single center over the central gulf by Tuesday. As a result the
the ridge will get squeezed to leave just a narrow ridge along the
coastal range from south of the panhandle to along the St. Elias
Mountains and then westward towards Prince William Sound.

With the moving into central gulf winds will increase a little to
be 15 to 20 kts over the outer gulf, meanwhile winds on the inner
channels will be under 20 kt except that stronger winds through
Lynn Canal with the connection to the lower pressure over the
Yukon Territory. Lynn Canal should diminish slightly over night
to a 15 to 20 kt set of speeds, however expect an afternoon
increase to at least 20 over the northern canal again. Have not
bumped Monday afternoon/evening to 25 kt through would not be
surprised to see it happen.

Widespread clouds over the gulf and panhandle should continue,
and with a weak upper trough early this evening and a little
stronger one approaching the northeast gulf and panhandle late
tonight, they are expected to spread light precip inland. Likely
PoPs or better from Frederick Sound northward or along the coast
range for tonight with chance to likely along Prince of Wales
Island. Rainfall amounts tonight should be under a quarter inch.

With pattern as stable has it has been recently the inherited
forecast held up well, and only needed to make small changes to
what was already issued.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/The low we watch as of 9
PM Saturday night spins south of False Pass in the far southwest
gulf and will slowly advance into the central gulf by Tuesday
morning. Having pushed much cooler air aloft across Southeast
Alaska on Monday, this parent system will continue to send showers
into the Panhandle with increasingly more dynamic onshore flow.
Temperatures were cooled a few degrees across the Panhandle to
account for this. As the system slides closer to Haida Gwaii by
Wednesday, a drying trend may commence across the north, but the
south should become even wetter as instability rises.

Uncertainty still increases beyond Wednesday as the GFS stubbornly
refuses to back down on the northward trek of a wave/low into the
eastern gulf and potentially into the Panhandle. ECMWF hints of
this possibility as well, but keeps far more potent energy to the
south. With continued discrepancy, we let much of the extended
forecast ride another day and hope for clearer solutions tomorrow.
Thus Thursday/Friday forecast may be wetter across Southeast
Alaska than currently forecast and likewise, the south in
particular may be breezier.

Whatever happens Thursday/Friday, onshore flow likely persists as
a relatively active summer pattern more common of July/August than
June continues through the weekend. Temperatures will continue
run average to a bit below average for this time of year.
Confidence is relatively low Thursday and beyond.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041>043-052.

&&

Bezenek/JWA

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