Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Juneau, AK

278 
FZAK52 PAJK 020037
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-021845-
337 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS A
RESULT. 

$$

PKZ041-021845-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
337 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-021845-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
337 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. W SWELL
IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-021845-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
337 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL IN THE EVENING.
PATCHY FOG IN THE EVENING...THEN AREAS OF FOG LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO
8 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-021845-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
337 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL EARLY IN THE
EVENING. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-021845-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
337 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
EVENING...THEN AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL IN THE
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

656 
FZAK52 PAJK 020214
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
514 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-022015-
514 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS A
RESULT. 

$$

PKZ041-022015-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
514 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. W
SWELL. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-022015-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
514 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. W
SWELL. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-022015-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
514 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. AREAS OF FOG.  
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO
8 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-022015-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
514 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-022015-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
514 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2017

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

392 
FZAK52 PAJK 021248
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030700-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ041-030700-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ042-030700-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF
FOG.
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ043-030700-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030700-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT.
.FRI...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030700-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG LATE.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF
FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Sat imagery and sfc analysis indicate high pressure
building NE across the gulf. A weak perturbation dropping down the
back of the building ridge will bring another shot of mid/hi
clouds to NRN/ERN portions of CWA as it dives south, but fair
weather will persist across SE AK through Sun. This wave is also
contributing to weaker Nly winds than models progged and less
drying as a result. RHs this afternoon across the N gulf coast
and N Ctl panhandle remain in the mid to upper 80%s. Given light
winds over this area already and mostly clear skies tonight,
elected to introduce patchy radiational fog for portions of the
central panhandle and gulf coast tonight. Winds over the N inner
channels also diminishing quickly with only SCA remaining for
N Lynn into this evening. Further S...winds remain breezy through
late tonight with SCA for Clarence Strait through late this
evening. Otherwise, advisories for seas over the outer waters will
persist this evening and begin to subside from NW-SE through Sun
afternoon. Models continue to indicate favorable conditions for a
strong inversion to develop Sun as ridging builds NE. WAA in the
low levels will aid in strengthening the near sfc inversion.
Inherited forecast represented this thinking well and made minor
adjustments to mass fields representing current conditions and
trends.

.LONG TERM...PoP and wind not much of a concern in the extended
range forecast period. Big issue will be extent and duration of
widespread fog that is anticipated. Driving force behind this will
be clear or mostly clear skies under a very strong low level
inversion that will encompass nearly all of the panhandle, the
inner channels, and the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Most difficult
aspect of the long range forecast today has been to accurately
depict the sky while also depicting extensive fog. In the end,
emphasis was placed on depicting more cloud cover over water to
imply a low level marine layer, and less cloud cover over land, to
imply that, above the fog, conditions will be basically sunny.
Take away from all this is that there will mostly likely be
impacts to travel during the upcoming week as a result of
widespread fog.

There will be a very modest warm up Sunday night through Monday
night and then temps will begin to fall once again. However,
conditions not expected to be much below normal for this time of
the year, if at all.

Used an ensemble approach for updates to pressure and wind through
Wednesday. PoP and QPF not a factor. No changes to temps. Overall
confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031-036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ022-051>053.
&&

BC/Fritsch

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