Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Juneau, AK

871 
FZAK53 PAJK 081241
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
341 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-090645-
YAKUTAT BAY-
341 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT
BAY. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

823 
FZAK53 PAJK 090016
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-091830-
YAKUTAT BAY-
316 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT
BAY. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
616 AM AKST Sat Jan 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...The surface pattern remains virtually unchanged
yielding very tight gradients between a low in the northeast
Pacific and very strong Canadian high pressure. This has resulted
in very strong winds mainly for the northern Panhandle, but gusty
conditions as far south as Hyder, Metlakatla, and Klawock.
Dangerously high mountain waves measuring anywhere from 60 to 100
mph continue to swirl around the Downtown Juneau/Thane/West
Juneau/Douglas areas. To make matters worse, winds have polished
snow covered surfaces to a super smooth, and slippery plain.
Hence when gusts occur, it is easy to be knocked off one's feet.
Another critical level occurs this morning around 500 mb thus
enhancing mountain wave winds. But super tight gradients persist
into Sunday and potentially beyond (see below) even as the
critical layer exits. Likewise, Yakutat has experienced gusts to
53 mph overnight, and a high wind warning continues to until 3 pm
for areas mainly downstream of mountain passes. There is some
evidence that the gradient lightens a little tonight over the
central and southern Panhandle; therefore, we began a trend of
weakening winds through this area, both marine and land winds.

A winter weather advisory continues for blowing snow with very low
visibility and wind chills to 40 below for White Pass. We received
word yesterday from AKDOT that the pass had been closed due to
inclement weather. Significant drifting will occur along the
Klondike Highway.

Isolated snow showers across our far southern areas will retreat mid-
day and cloud cover will follow shortly thereafter. Otherwise,
dry, mainly clear conditions will persist. Some spillover upslope
flow may cover skies near Skagway through today, but a drier air
mass should reduce clouds overnight.

Temperatures were challenging with slower declines overnight given
the rampant mixing associated with winds. While cold air
advection has basically ceased, radiation loss will continue today
with some temperatures across the area actually slightly cooling
into the afternoon or at best remaining stable. Sharper declines
will occur tonight as gradients and land winds begin to relax
slightly over the central and southern Panhandle. The freezing
line still lies draped along the southern Panhandle and will move
even further south tonight. Temperatures will move into the single
digits for a few areas in the north tonight.

The overall forecast idea remains in place.

.LONG TERM...Models continue to struggle with pattern evolution
after mid week. Northerly outflow event will be the main weather
story until then. Some consideration was given to extending the
high wind warning through Monday Morning for the downtown
Juneau/Douglas area, but opted to let the day shift have a look at
newest model guidance and make a determination. Concern about winds
lasting longer is due to cross barrier flow remaining strong and
even strengthening a bit on Sunday afternoon/night as another round
of CAA occurs from the northeast. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains on track with strong northerly winds and dry weather over
the panhandle.

The ridge will eventually reform in the Bering early to mid next
week, but the resultant pattern evolution continues to be a big
question. As is usually the case, long range models are having
issues with northern and southern stream interaction which leads to
wildly different operational solutions. General ensemble trends
(GEFS and EPS) are toward increasing clouds/precipitation and some
moderation of the temperatures.

The 06z NAM was used for updates through day 4. Inherited WPC
guidance left thereafter.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ020-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKST Monday for AKZ018.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ043.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ043-051.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ021.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ022.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ022.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ051-053.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011>013-031-034-035.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ032.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012-022-043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-013-021-031>033-035-036-041-042-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ034.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ052.
&&

JWA/TPS

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