Small Craft Advisory 101, NWS Juneau, AK

569 
FZAK51 PAJK 170534 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-171700-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-171700-
GLACIER BAY-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ012-171700-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
3 FT IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-171700-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-171700-
ICY STRAIT-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT OR
LESS. 



$$

PKZ022-171700-
CROSS SOUND-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-171700-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-171700-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR 
LESS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-171700-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 
FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 6 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ034-171700-
FREDERICK SOUND-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-171700-
SUMNER STRAIT-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES, SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT
5 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ036-171700-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
834 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

009 
FZAK51 PAJK 171315
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-180315-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE
FRIDAY. A NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY
SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-180315-
GLACIER BAY-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 
FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG
IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-180315-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW 
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FREEZING FOG
IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-180315-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-180315-
ICY STRAIT-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT OR
LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-180315-
CROSS SOUND-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-180315-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS THEN 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-180315-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-180315-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE OCEAN ENTRANCE IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN 
ENTRANCES.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT 
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS THEN 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES,
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-180315-
FREDERICK SOUND-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS THEN 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-180315-
SUMNER STRAIT-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 
FT OR LESS. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES, SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ036-180315-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
415 AM AKST FRI FEB 17 2017

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR 
LESS.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
543 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Majority of the day across the region looks to have
fair weather with some sunshine. Patchy fog early this morning has
come and gone, but may redevelop briefly with the outgoing tide.
There is a ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf and an
inverted trough over the panhandle extending from a low north of
Vancouver Island. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
trough is causing NWLY winds of around 25kt over the southern
outside waters and through Clarence Strait this morning. Expect
the north winds to gradually ease in the afternoon as the low
center moves NE into Canada and the gradient slackens
considerably. Most places will see winds becoming light and
variable in the late afternoon or evening, but sea breezes may
play a role during that time as well.

Clouds over the southern half of the panhandle, assoc with the low
to the south, are primarily high clouds. Think that these clouds
will allow a good amount of sun to shine through. Based on
Canadian observations to the south, have decreased the POP over
the Hyder area to a slight chance for today. The afternoon would
be the most likely time to get some light rain as the low moves NE
into Canada. But, flow there is largely offshore out of the
interior, so if any did occur it would probably be just a
sprinkle.

The ridge of high pressure over the gulf will start to weaken and
shift off to the SE tonight. Then, a weak trough will move across
the northern gulf and introduce isolated to scattered showers
across the area overnight. CAA with 850mb temps falling to around
-7C will cause majority of the showers to be snow. Thinking is
that these will be very light to start. Pressure orientation will
shift due to the trough to become light S-SELY overnight.

Most adjustments to this forecast package made for local effects
and based on current conditions. Forecast confidence is above
average, but slightly lower for extent/duration of clouds
persisting this morning.

.LONG TERM...A weak surface ridge over the Gulf of Alaska will be
moving east of the panhandle by Friday as a weak trough will move
into the northeast Gulf of Alaska. This will renew showers to
spread in Friday and Friday night. Showers are expected to taper
off through Saturday across the panhandle. Best chances of rain
should be along the immediate gulf coast to the northeast gulf
coast and west of Chatham strait. Generally more of a chance
level shower activity inland areas. Temperatures likely to be cool
enough over the northern half of the panhandle to be snow or a
mix precipitation type. Accumulations are looking to be around an
inch or so for the 12 hour periods.

Southeast Alaska getting a reprieve from the active weather as
the Pacific jet stream is directing the storm track towards the
west coast of the Lower 48. There is also a mid level low anchored
near Kotzebue through the weekend and this directs much of the
the weak northerly stream into the Arctic Ocean reach.

Headed into next week the area of weak flow across the gulf morphs into
broad long wave trough with the base of it south of 40N while a
ridging aloft is expected to move across the gulf. Therefore not
expecting strongly develop systems to impact the region through
the week.

The forecast issues for Friday and Friday night will be tracking
the timing an strength of the showers bands associated with the
trough(s) spreading across the area. With lighter winds for the
panhandle area, patchy to areas of fog could also try to impact
the weather into the weekend in sheltered valleys and lighter wind
regions. Overall confidence is average to above average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ043-051-052.
&&

Ferrin/Bezenek

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