High Wind Watch 8, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
627 AM AKST Fri Mar 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Gusty outflow winds continue to dominate the weather pattern
across the Panhandle this morning. Winds have been particularly
gusty near Downtown Juneau and Douglas island due to a Taku wind
event. The main forcing features for this event have been the
stagnant interior high pressure over the interior, and a trough
of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. This has supported strong
gap winds and cross barrier flow. While some strong gusts are
expected to remain during the early morning hours, winds are
expected to gradually diminish by afternoon as both features
weaken slightly in intensity. However, wind gusts are expected to
intensify once more late tonight. A frontal system will increase
the pressure gradient across local gaps as it approaches the
southern Panhandle late this evening. There is still some
uncertainty, but wind gusts especially across the Juneau Downtown
area may approach warning levels. In addition to the increasing
pressure gradient at lower levels, an upper level jet will provide
a critical layer as wind direction shifts aloft into Saturday
morning.

.MARINE...The combination of gusty winds and cooler temperatures
will result in heavy freezing spray near interior passes this
morning, and again late tonight as winds intensify ahead of a
front. The areas of main concern for heavy freezing spray include
Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait, and
Glacier Bay.

.AVIATION...For the Juneau airport, expect gusty winds this
morning to gradually weaken throughout the day. Gusty winds are
expected to then redevelop by late Friday night and could be
locally strong. Expect mainly VFR conditions due to persistent
offshore flow.

.LONG TERM...Ridge of high pressure extending from northern Canada
westward through the state into the the Bering Sea persists into
the weekend. Low pressure will track northeast towards Haida
Gwaii by Saturday afternoon. The low will spread some clouds and
chance of snow during the day into the southern panhandle, that
will start to try and mix with rain late Saturday into Sunday.

By Sunday afternoon a second low develops in the North Pacific and
is expected to move northeast into the Southeast Gulf with a rough
depth in the mid to upper 980 mb range. As the frontal band moves
into the southern panhandle on Sunday it will bring with is batch
of mid latitude moisture, along with solid low level warming as
850 temperatures should warm from -10 to near 0C from Saturday
morning to Sunday evening. Do expect to see the warming weaken as
it tries to move north across the panhandle. The snow will spread
north to the north central panhandle by Sunday. The snow amounts
Saturday to saturday night will likely be between 1 and 3 inches
for 12 hour time frames, just below advisory criteria in the
southern panhandle.

Believe the low or remains of the low gets into northeast Gulf of
Alaska by early next week and as a result the upper level flow
across the panhandle will become more southerly and an increase
the onshore flow for next week.

Into the weekend, expect the outflow over the northern panhandle
to remain an important feature so strong gap and mountain wave
winds will be expected to continue. Think that Friday night into
Saturday could be favorable for the Taku mountain wave to increase
in strength again around downtown Juneau.

.&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ025.
     STRONG WIND through late tonight for AKZ025.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
     STRONG WIND until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ017.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012-031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013-034-035.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ021-022-036.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ032.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ035.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-034.
 Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>033-035-036-041>043-051. &&

Bezenek/EN

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