High Wind Warning 15, NWS Juneau, AK

043 
WWAK77 PAJK 042039
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1239 PM AKDT Tue Apr 4 2017
 
AKZ027-050500-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0015.170404T2100Z-170405T1200Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
1239 PM AKDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...Southeast Gulf Coast including Hydaburg and Craig

* WINDS...Gusts around 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase this afternoon and persist through
  tonight. Strongest winds are expected to occur tonight.

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around. Improperly moored 
  boats may break free. Downed trees may cause power outages. 
  Marine and aviation operations will be impacted. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

This statement will be updated by 9 PM AKDT tonight or sooner 
should conditions warrant.

&&

$$

589 
WWAK77 PAJK 050436
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
836 PM AKDT Tue Apr 4 2017


AKZ027-051200-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170405T1200Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
836 PM AKDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...Southeast Gulf Coast including Hydaburg and Craig

* WINDS...Gusts around 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will continue to increase this evening and
  persist through tonight.

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around. Improperly moored 
  boats may break free. Downed trees may cause power outages. 
  Marine and aviation operations will be impacted. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

This statement will be updated by 4 AM AKDT Wednesday or sooner 
should conditions warrant.

&&

$$

294 
WWAK77 PAJK 051150
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKDT Wed Apr 5 2017


AKZ027-051300-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170405T1200Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
350 AM AKDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

High winds gusts are expected to remain below warning criteria. 
Gusts to 40 to 50 mph will continue through Wednesday morning 
then diminish through the afternoon.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
840 PM AKDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.UPDATE...Extended forecast periods and discussion updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...issued at 355 pm Monday /through 12z Thursday/A
strong occluded front over the eastern gulf will stall there
tonight. Deepening low pressure will move N into the S-central
gulf by Tue night then curve W toward Kodiak Island Wed. A storm
force occluded front will move N into the far SE gulf by late Tue
afternoon, then reach the far N gulf by Wed morning. Blended in
the 12z GFS with previous forecast, mainly to increase winds some
especially over the gulf.

Main forecast concerns will be winds, precip potential, and temps.
A band of storm force winds is ahead of the front over the E gulf,
mainly in marine areas 51, 52 and 310. These winds will drop back
to gale force later tonight with front weakening some. However,
another band of storm force winds will move N into the SE gulf by
late Tue morning ahead of the next front. This band will lift N to
the central-E central gulf Tue night then weaken to high end gales
as it reaches the far N gulf Wed morning. Another band of storm
force winds will accompany the low on its E and N side late Tue
night and Wed over the E gulf, associated with second wrap of
occluded front. Strongest winds over land areas will be along the
outer coast, especially south of Cape Decision Tue into Tue night.
Have kept the high wind watch going for zone 27, but delayed start
to 21z Tue as the pressure gradient orientation is not favorable
for high winds before then. Will likely need strong wind headlines
for the remaining outer coast and at least S inner channels Tue
afternoon into Wed morning. Locally around Juneau, could be a
burst of strong NE wind for downtown Juneau and Douglas as a weak
mtn wave will be possible Tue into Tue evening. Inner channel
winds will peak at gales for the more W and S channels Tue and Tue
night, with the other areas reaching SCA levels.

Precip with first front will mainly affect the outer coast
tonight. Strong downslope E flow will tend to keep much of the
inner channels dry through tonight, especially over the areas near
the Coast Mtns. The downslope will continue over the N inner
channels Tue as second front moves into the far SE gulf and turns
flow even more offshore, so precip chances will remain low over
the N during the day. By Tue night though, rain with second front
should move into the N area as front moves slowly onshore and the
offshore flow turns more sely. Expect Wed and Wed night to remain
wet with onshore flow and second wrap of front affecting the
area.

Temps will be a bit tricky especially tonight and Tue. The main
issue is whether the low level flow remains coupled to flow aloft
and causes temps to slowly rise overnight and Tue due to
downsloping. At this point, did raise min temps several degrees
especially over the areas near the Coast Mtns, but did not show a
slow rise tonight as not confident flow will remain coupled
overnight. With daytime heating Tue though, the downslope flow
should help warm temps to the upper 40s to lower 50s, with some
locally higher temps (mid 50s) not out of the question in areas
along the Coast Mtns.

.LONG TERM.../ Thursday into Tuesday / Weakening upper trough
over the western gulf with a Pacific storm track directed well
south of the area is the main pattern for the extended forecast.
Long range models in reasonable agreement for Thu into Fri but
consistency is still an issue for the weekend and beyond. The GFS
has abandon the strong ridge that it was building over the
western gulf over the weekend from yesterday's runs in favor of
returning to the weak trough idea that the ECMWF has championed
for the last two days. Meanwhile the Canadian still retains the
building ridge scenario but the ridge is not as strong as what is
depicted in yesterday's runs. Extended forecast favors the weak
trough idea through the weekend riding on the better consistency
from the ECMWF.

At lower levels, Increasing offshore flow Thu into Fri will be
gradually putting an end to the precip that lingers over the
panhandle from the mid week fronts. Panhandle should be mostly dry
by Fri night as an inverted trough starts to develop over the
south and should mostly stay dry (particularly for the north)
into early next week. Extended models are not as strong with this
trough as they have been the last two days so offshore flow is not
quite as strong as previously forecast leading to more clouds
likely around the area and lower winds. Also more extended models
are favoring at least some short wave energy wandering into the
southern panhandle for the late weekend. Retained the chance of
rain for that area as a result with the increasing confidence.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for AKZ027.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>036-053.
&&

RWT/EAL

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