Gale Warning 97, NWS Juneau, AK

797 
FZAK51 PAJK 041319
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050400-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS.  

$$

PKZ011-050400-
GLACIER BAY-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-050400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-050400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS 
TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-050400-
ICY STRAIT-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-050400-
CROSS SOUND-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 55 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT...EXCEPT 55 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT...EXCEPT 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-050400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-050400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-050400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT 
OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 50 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-050400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-050400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
419 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 PM AKST Fri Mar 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...The low center that caused the snow yesterday
remains over the eastern gulf west of Sitka as of this afternoon.
Another low center developed last night along a wave and is
currently over the POW/Ketchikan region. This feature caused heavy
snow showers for the southern panhandle this morning along with
wind gusts of 30-40mph reported in Ketchikan. Criteria for a
blizzard is for these conditions to occur for at least 3hrs, and
this one came darn close this morning. Snow showers linger down
there into tomorrow morning, but the low has weakened and the
showers have larger breaks in between. Could see around 1-3 inches
down there tonight, but amounts will be highly variable.

For the northern panhandle, offshore flow has taken over with
N-NELY outflow winds of 40-50mph reported in many locations. These
conditions will continue overnight. The outflow winds will ease
some through Saturday afternoon as the low centers drift away
south and cause the pressure packing to subside.

The north wind is bringing in colder air from Canada and clearing
skies tonight will make for temps to be a few degrees colder
tomorrow morning, especially for wind sheltered locations. Windy
spots will be warmer, but still in the 20s. March sunshine will
allow for temps to rebound tomorrow, but not expecting many places
to break the freezing mark.

Used mainly the ECMWF and GFS along with some Canadian models for
certain elements. The 12z ECMWF initialized the low center near
POW Island the best this morning. Forecast confidence is above
average.

.LONG TERM...A strong upper trough has settled over the panhandle
and will remain in place through at least late week. Very cold
air accompanies this trough with 850 mb temps easily down into
the negative teens C across most of the area through at least mid
next week.

Outflow winds and cold temperatures will be the main rule of the
forecast for the next week. The usual outflow areas are expected
to be gusty for several days with gale force winds for Lynn
Canal, and Taku Inlet expected. 25 to 30 kt winds are likely for
many of the other inner channels as well. For land areas expect
gusts to 40 mph or more for Skagway, downtown Juneau and Douglas
(Taku wind event), the passes east of Yakutat for the same time
period and other outflow areas across the northern panhandle.

Temperature will also be rather cold with highs in the mid 20s to
low 30s and lows in the teens and low 20s for many areas. This
will be especially true for wind sheltered areas with clear skies
where radiational cooling at night will see temps drop rather
quickly. The combo of cold temperatures and high winds will also
cause a prolonged period of freezing spray for many of the inner
channels with the possibility of heavy freezing spray likely for
some northern inner channel areas.

The coldest push of air is expected Sun into Mon as a short wave
drops south along the windward side of the main upper trough.
Expect the strongest winds and coldest temperatures Sun night into
Tue as the cold air flowing over the mountain passes intensifies.
Increased outflow winds and lowered temps at that time to account
for this.

Overall good model agreement for the extended period. Changes
mainly focused on outflow winds and cold temperatures through mid
next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Saturday morning for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017-022.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018-019.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ051.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-034-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-032-033-035-036-041-042-052-
     053.
&&

Ferrin/EAL

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