Gale Warning 95, NWS Juneau, AK

936 
FZAK52 PAJK 031302
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-040715-
402 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CANADIAN YUKON INTO SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-040715-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
402 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 
FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-040715-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
402 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-040715-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
402 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-040715-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
402 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-040715-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
402 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SE SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

668 
FZAK52 PAJK 040032
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-041845-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS.  

$$

PKZ041-041845-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-041845-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT 
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-041845-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 6 
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-041845-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-041845-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

536 
FZAK52 PAJK 041254
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050100-
354 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS.  

$$

PKZ041-050100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
354 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
354 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
354 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
354 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
354 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
413 PM AKST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...The words, "inconsistencies in the track of a low
bringing impactful weather to the Panhandle," do not radiate
confidence. But as we close in on decision time, we follow the
ECMWF/GFS/GEM track of the low taking moving it relatively quickly
up the coast late tonight just offshore of Baranof Island and then
wobbling it westward out to sea not very quickly into Thursday.
The NAM still has great attraction for Baranof Island and thus
brings it inland in a somewhat weaker state.

Precipitation will spread well ahead of the system this evening
and overnight to envelop nearly the entire Panhandle by morning.
It will generally start as snow but then change over or mix with
rain very quickly across the southern Panhandle. The warm, moist air
will surge northward eventually across Baranof Island and the
zone 26 area. Some late observations like Stewart, Canada indicate
some concern that snow may begin earlier and perhaps intensify
more rapidly across particularly zone 26. They are now down to 1/4
mile in a heavy snow band. We have issued a new winter weather
advisory for the possibility of 2 to 6 inches through 6 AM
Thursday morning. A rain mix will limit accumulations at the end
of the event. Should a rain changeover not occur, snow amounts
will likely be much greater, especially in Petersburg. An SPS
covers the rain over snow event which will have hazardous impacts
on an area unaccustomed to such a heavy snow pack.

Going farther north, an easier case for winter storm warnings can
be made for Pelican and Hoonah, where they easily verified the
last event from this morning. Juneau, because of the mountains and
the difference in model solutions provides once again a tougher
case. But given verification in snow amounts that occurred around
Downtown Juneau, but not in the valley/airport areas, we feel the
stronger dynamics of this system (given a closed upper low) will
be enough to counter any offshore flow at low levels. Should the
snow occur, the zone of greatest lift will occur along the Polar
front draped across the Icy Strait corridor. Should low level
winds veer back toward the southeast or east, available qpf will
be more limited and snow amounts will not materialize. Overall, we
expect 4 to 10 inches in this area. The winter storm warning
begins at midnight and lasts through 6 PM. We think the greatest
threat for Juneau will occur after 6 AM, but wanted to lump the
warnings together for potential error in timing. A winter weather
advisory was issued for Gustavus for the same reasons.

Finally, winds were fine-tuned and reduced in general across much
of the Panhandle. We keep the strong winds in Skagway but push
them back tonight as the strongest cold air advection will take
place. We have also limited wind speeds through Lynn Canal to 35
kt later tonight. We cannot argue with storm force easterlies in
Cross Sound as the low passes farther west.

GFS and ECMWF were used for edits. Forecast confidence just above
moderate for the snow events.

.LONG TERM...The low discussed above will remain over the NE gulf
Thursday night with gale force winds. Precip will become more
showery and intermittent through the evening as the low starts to
weaken. By Friday morning offshore flow on the north side of the
low will have diminished showers to scattered or less from Icy
Strait/Juneau north. The low will track south across the eastern
gulf through Friday evening and take the rest of the showers with
it.

High pressure to the north will cause winds to shift out of the
north everywhere as the low moves south. Dry, cooler, northerly
outflow looks to be the prevailing weather condition through the
weekend. Currently have many outflow areas with around 40-50mph
gusts. This will cause areas of blowing snow across the northern
half of the panhandle, since most places have had some snow this
week. There are some signs of precip over the southern panhandle
extending north from an inverted trough mid next week, but models
do not fully agree on this idea...and the dry outflow tends to
win out in these situations.

Most updates today were limited to the Thursday night/Friday
timeframe since models shifted the low center more west into the
gulf. Used the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models since the NAM was an
outlier. Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ026.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ021-022-025.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Thursday through late tonight for
     AKZ018-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST
     Thursday for AKZ020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-021-036-041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-031-033>035.
&&

JWA/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
934 AM AKST THU MAR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             HOONAH                  58.11N 135.44W
03/02/2017  M8.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HOONAH MEASURED 8.8 INCHES - 24 HOUR AMOUNT.

0800 AM     SNOW             PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
03/02/2017  M8.2 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PELICAN MEASURED 8.2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR LAST 24 HOURS.

0825 AM     SNOW             GUSTAVUS                58.41N 135.80W
03/02/2017  M3.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            GUSTAVUS - 3.8 INCHES SINCE MAINLY MIDNIGHT

0930 AM     SNOW             ANGOON                  57.50N 134.59W
03/02/2017  E14.0 INCH                          AK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HEAVY SNOW ESTIMATED AT ANGOON, 13-14 INCHES

&&

JWA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1152 AM AKST THU MAR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TEE HARBOR              58.41N 134.76W
03/02/2017  E13.5 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER FROM TEE HARBOR ESTIMATED 13.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL
            WITH ONE FOOT OF SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHITE OUT
            AT TIMES IN THE HARBOR.

1020 AM     HEAVY SNOW       LENA LOOP               58.39N 134.77W
03/02/2017  M6.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER FROM LENA POINT REPORTED A TOTAL OF 6
            INCHES OF NEW SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 15 INCHES TOTAL ON
            THE GROUND

1030 AM     HEAVY SNOW       TENAKEE SPRINGS         57.78N 135.22W
03/02/2017  M10.0 INCH                          AK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CITY HALL MEASURED A TOTAL OF 10 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY
            NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING

&&

DEL