Gale Warning 85, NWS Juneau, AK

711 
FZAK67 PAJK 021248
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030700-
348 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER WESTERN
CANADA. 

$$

PKZ310-030700-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
348 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NORTH HALF...NE GALE 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN 
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SOUTH HALF...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING 30 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE 
MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL SHIFTING TO
THE E LATE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

836 
FZAK67 PAJK 030007
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
307 PM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-031815-
307 PM AKST THU MAR 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON.  

$$

PKZ310-031815-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
307 PM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND 
SNOW SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 
MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL SHIFTING TO
THE E LATE. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. E SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

698 
FZAK67 PAJK 031256
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040700-
356 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CANADIAN YUKON INTO SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-040700-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
356 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NORTHERN HALF....NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SOUTHERN HALF...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL SHIFTING TO THE E
LATE. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

498 
FZAK67 PAJK 040032
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-041845-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS.  

$$

PKZ310-041845-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
332 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. NE SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

208 
FZAK67 PAJK 041250
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
350 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS.  

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
350 AM AKST SAT MAR 4 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
548 AM AKST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...Low pressure system over the northern AK gulf will
begin to track to the west while weakening. Associated frontal
boundary moving over the central and northern panhandle along
a trough extending from the gulf low. Another strong low will
move up from the N Pacific tonight and into the southern AK gulf.

Gale force winds over the northern AK gulf this morning and
strong outflow winds from Cross Sound northward will begin to
diminish as the low pulls west. Winds will increase again this
evening as the new low progresses northward. Tightening northerly
gradient will again increase winds to gale force to near storm
force for the northern inner channels. Strong winds along the
panhandle coast and from outflow areas will also develop.

Moderate snow continued over the northern half of the panhandle
this morning with snow showers over the southern half. Warm
saturated layer moving over colder surface air keeping over
running snow event going through the late evening. Heaviest snow
fall will be over the central panhandle. As next low moves up
another round of heavy snow will start late tonight. With more
southerly flow the next system has more moisture and higher QPF
amounts. Model soundings show a well formed nose of warm moist air
at 850 mb with the next front. The southern panhandle will begin
to get more rain and thus lower snow accumulations as surface
temps warm. As long as surface temps for the central and northern
panhandle remain in the 20's, which is expected, this next system
could produce a much more robust over running event and produce
higher snow amounts.

Early on models were in fair agreement with timing of the exiting
system. For the next low model spread increases with the GFS the
fastest and ECMWF/Canadian/NAM bit more in line but slower than
previous model runs. For now keeping winter weather hazard
timings as is since new model runs were moving the next low a bit
slower. Went with a Canadian/NAM blend which shifted some timing
of winds increasing over the southern gulf later tonight. Lots of
uncertainty with snow accumulations especially over the southern
panhandle.

.LONG TERM...More heavy snow expected for Thursday for locations
north of Frederick Sound and south of Cape Fairweather. Snow
begins to taper off after that, but remains in the forecast
through Friday night.

The strong low mentioned above that enters the eastern gulf late
tonight is forecast to be storm force strength. Current forecast
track takes it close to Sitka by Thursday morning. Strong wind
gusts very likely with wind gusts in excess of 55 mph not out of
the question yet. Very strong high pressure over the Yukon at the
same time will result in a very strong northerly pressure
gradient with wind gusts to 55 mph currently forecast for the
Skagway area and 60 kt storm force winds over northern Lynn Canal
Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. Pressure pattern and
gradient also favors storm force winds out of Cross Sound on
Thursday.

Updates tonight limited to the Friday/Friday night time frame and
the Canadian NH was used for pressure and wind. PoP and QPF from
the 00Z GFS blended with the 06Z SREF and Canadian. No changes to
temperatures. Overall forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ023-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST early this morning for
     AKZ027-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ020>022-
     025.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ018-022-023.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this afternoon for
     AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-031-033>036-041>043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032-052.
&&

PRB/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 AM AKST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             1 SW JUNEAU             58.29N 134.43W
03/01/2017  M4.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WEST JUNEAU STORM TOTAL SINCE 9 PM LAST EVENING 4.2
            INCHES

0600 AM     SNOW             1 S JUNEAU              58.28N 134.41W
03/01/2017  M6.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            6 IN. OF NEW SNOW SINCE 8 AM TUESDAY

0600 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PETERSBURG              56.81N 132.96W
03/01/2017  M12.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL OF 12 INCHES AT THE PETERSBURG AIRPORT AS OF
            6 AM THIS MORNING. 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
            FROM OVERNIGHT.

0715 AM     SNOW             HOONAH                  58.11N 135.44W
03/01/2017  M8.6 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            8.6 INCHES IS A 24 HOUR TOTAL

0800 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.91N 130.02W
03/01/2017  M8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER FROM HYDER MEASURED A TOTAL OF 8 INCHES OF
            NEW SNOW AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING.

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
03/01/2017  M18.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL OF 18 INCHES AT PELICAN AS OF 8 AM THIS
            MORNING. 7.5 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.

0830 AM     SLEET            SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
03/01/2017  E3.00 INCH                          AK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SITKA FIRE DEPARTMENT ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
            PRIMARILY ICE PELLETS OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL OF AROUND 8
            INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ON THE GROUND.

0838 AM     SNOW             WRANGELL                56.47N 132.40W
03/01/2017  E5.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORM TOTAL 5 INCHES

&&

DEL