Gale Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

134 
FZAK51 PAJK 051255
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-060315-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL RISE TO GALE
TO STORM FORCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

$$

PKZ011-060315-
GLACIER BAY-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FLURRIES IN THE MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-060315-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
8 FT. FLURRIES EARLY IN THE MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 60 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS
15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-060315-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FLURRIES.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-060315-
ICY STRAIT-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. FLURRIES.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-060315-
CROSS SOUND-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-060315-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FLURRIES.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT...EXCEPT 65 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-060315-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. FLURRIES.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-060315-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-060315-
FREDERICK SOUND-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-060315-
SUMNER STRAIT-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-060315-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
355 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
648 AM AKST Wed Jan 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...The inversion we have experienced over the last
several days has weakened, yet it still exists. Areas of dense fog
therefore continue to plague the central Inner Channels. A dense
fog advisory remains until noon today for 20, 21, 25 and 26.
Light winds will continue through tonight as the bulk of the
Panhandle remains under a zone a weaker low pressure situated
between high pressure centered over the western gulf and cold high
pressure over northwest Canada. However, winds will increase
through the far northern Panhandle and Lynn Canal tonight as a
short-wave induces lower pressure as it drops east southeast from
Mainland Alaska across the Wrangell St. Elias Range. Cold air
advection will begin through the Chilkat Valley and down the
Klondike Highway and help sustain increases in both Haines and
Skagway especially late tonight.

Fog will likely re-form tonight across the central and southern
Panhandle as models are indicating the inversion persists, but
continues to weaken. However the short-wave mentioned above
may assist with mixing out the lower boundary layer late tonight
from north to south. Therefore we trended downward both fog
severity and expanse through Thursday morning from north to south.
So confidence in fog expanse after midnight is less than for the
evening hours.

Few changes were made. The majority of time was spent on fog
progression.

.LONG TERM...Little change to synoptic reasoning for extended
forecast as models continue to indicate a vigorous shortwave
dampening the ridge as it dives SE across the panhandle Thu with
a cold air mass advecting into the region in its wake. Models
continue to indicate potential for precip, but, given the dry
airmass currently in place, believe models too aggressive
developing precip over the northern panhandle Thu with better
precip chances further S.

Pressure gradient will tighten quickly as CAA develops in the
wake of the shortwave. Pattern still favors strong outflow
developing Fri and persisting through the weekend. NAEFS standard
anomalies show 1000mb and 850mb temps 1-2 standard deviations
below normal Thu through the weekend and continue around 1
standard dev below through the extended. NAEFS anomalies also
enhance confidence in strong winds with 850mb winds 3-5 standard
deviations above normal over the northern panhandle this weekend.
GEFS RMOP also lends towards above average confidence in the
overall pattern.

Gale to storm force winds will develop over the inner channels
and favored outflow areas Fri-Sun and freezing spray is expected
over much of the inner channels. Ingredients for a strong Taku
wind event are also in place with very strong cross barrier flow,
cold air, and a good critical level. So high wind gusts are
expected for downtown Juneau and Douglas late this week and
weekend before winds gradually diminish into early next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ020-021-025-026.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.
&&

JWA/BC

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